Posted on 04/22/2007 10:02:03 AM PDT by Cincinna
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist Segolene Royal are set to contest a French presidential run-off after topping the first-round poll on Sunday, Belgium's Belga news agency said.
Belga quoted first projections which cannot be published in France by law until the last polling stations close at 1800 GMT (7 p.m. British time) as showing Sarkozy and Royal would go through.
Belgium's RTBF radio station said Sarkozy was slightly ahead in the first round.
(Excerpt) Read more at uk.reuters.com ...
You can be both racist and socialist, just ask Hitler.
Yes, and in a country that has even more parasites than the United States, the French Democrats should have a field day. I predict they will win. The welfare-state addicts will no more walk away from their pushers than drug addicts will walk away from theirs.
Paris has always been one of the most conservative regions in France. Sarko also won in almost the regions surrounding Paris.
Sarko won Paris
PARIS
SARKO 35.O7
ROYAL 31.75
BAYROU 20.73
LE PEN 4.58
UPDATED SCORES NATIONWIDE ::
SARKO 31.11
ROYAL 25.84
Nicolas Sarkozy 35.07%, Ségolène Royal 31.75%, François Bayrou 20.73%, Jean-Marie Le Pen 4.58%, Olivier Besancenot 2.09%, Dominique Voynet 1.53%, Marie-George Buffet 1.21%, Philippe de Villiers 1.1%, José Bové 1.03%, Arlette Laguiller 0.58%, Gérard Schivardi 0.17%, Frédéric Nihous 0.16%
The numbers are not reassuring. There was a real choice for the French between “the Swedish solution” and the rough and tumble involved in reversing that fatal trend in France. A five percent lead does not augur well for Sarkozy.
The Socialists’ and the extreme Left’s drive to register “ethnic minorities” (read “Muslims”) has been successful beyond expectations.
The Socialist base, the elderly and those close to pension age, the massive bureaucracy that feeds and grows on the expansion of government, the young who have been taught to hate America throughout their school years, and the far Left, combined with a Muslim population that is much larger than the official number, will deliver France to the point of no return.
Royal delivered Hollande’s rallying cry to the French. She “will not kneel to George Bush.” I think this appeal will work, disgusting and deceptive as it is.
The provincial French are frightened of the increasing numbers of immigrants in their midst, immigrants who do not work, who fill the public spaces of the old French villages and towns, and do not acknowledge the existence of the indigenous French who pass by them.
But Sarkozy has visited Bush; he might try to do something, make the immigrants mad, start a war. The immigrants in the provinces are just sitting around. It’s annoying, but — we must say “no” to racisme. But what are the immigrants waiting for? Why are they here?
Simon Heffer’s article “Anger and Resentment Mar a Slice of Paradise’ printed yesterday in the Telegraph signals something not considered by the polltakers.
http:www.telegraph.co.uk
Liberation, a leftwing newspaper has an interactive map by regions and departements, as well as cities. Paris is broken down by neighborhoods or arrondissements.
A breakdown of every city in France and how they voted can be found at ::
http://www.liberation.fr/_looks/liberation/php/pages/pageResultatsElections.php
True enough. Too bad for the frogs that so many think it should be 100%.
yitbos
Amazing how the PC in France has gone from a strong force to the political graveyard within my (31 year) lifetime. Jean Marchais must be spinning in his grave.
Appreciate the encouraging poll. However, the left will be very determined to keep Sarko out. They will stop at nothing, because this man is a real agent of change. The combined vote for real change candidates (Sarko and LePen) was only 41 or 42 percent. Bayrou could do terrible damage if he endorses Royal. In addition, I don’t think we can count on LePen endorsing Sarko.
I was encouraged by Sarko’s and Royal’s speeches, which I just saw on C-SPAN. Sarko is dynamic and he fired up the crowd. He speaks very clearly and tightly — energetic and with a real message. Royal made what I thought of as a bad Oval Office address, speaking to the TV more than to the crowd, which seemed to lose some of its initial enthusiasm. She seemed hesitant, very cautious, and said basically nothing of substance. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily make her a loser, but it’s not necessarily helpful either.
Very interesting info you report — Sarko with a relatively strong vote in Paris and, you say, in the North generally. I had thought all of this was leftist territory — and that most of the South and West were more on the right.
That 88 percent certainty level is interesting too. Higher than I would have expected, and seems to be good news for Sarkozy.
Your analysis of Sarko and Royal’s speeches echoes how I saw them as well. To me, she had a defeatest attitude, almost angry. Flat, boring, and full of platitudes and banalities.
The ABS “anyone but Sarko” and “Sarko=Facho” has begin.
Royal wants people to sign up for her 7 minutes for 7 Pillars of the Presidential Pact. A hideous reference to the 7 Pillars of Islam.
I think Bayrou’s voters will split almost 50/50. If he endorses Royal, he will lose most of the leadership of his Party UDF, which has already endorsed Sarko.
Le Pen is planning to endorse Royal.
Encouraging news about Bayrou’s party leaders tending to support Sarkozy. Bad news about LePen probably endorsing Royal. I guess he’s really more concerned about globalization (or opposing Israel or Jews?) than the immigration and assimilation issues? If you’re right, we have to hope that the vast majority of LePen’s voters are more reasonable than he is.
IMO it is about le Pen. It was always about le Pen. He hates America, Israel, and the Jews, and everything that Sarko stands for.
He doesn’t conder Sarko French enough to rule France because he has three immigrant grandparents and is part Jewish.
He also hates Sarko for what he calls “stealing his thunder” and consigning him to the dusbin of history.
Despite all of that, I predict a Sarko win. The socialists may not be willing to give up their perks and try to scare the elderly, but with double digit unemployment and the immigration problems, France is ready for a major change. The economy and nationalism will triumph over the paternalism represented by the Socialists. And although it may not be PC, I can’t see the French electing a woman.
“Many people voted for Sarko because there was no longer a need to vote for le Pen.”
That is precisely it. Imagine if Chirac had had his way and Dominque de Villepin had beent the UMP candidate instead of Sarkozy. Le Pen would have been in the runoff again, because of the crime and lawlessness. Le Pen versus Royal, Royal would have won, but it would have been much closer than Chirac versus Le Pen, because Royal cleary cannot lead France anywhere good, and cannot control crime at all. Le Pen offered that.
But this is why Sarkozy is such a good intervention. He talks with all of the common sense of Le Pen on crime and immigration, but does not have the baggage. Sarko has been careful too: he has not alienated Le Pen. He has not treated him like gardbage. Sarkozy knows that to win the Presidency, he has to have the votes of the Front National. Le Pen responded favorably to Sarkozy’s politeness too, especially since he’s getting his key policies by way of Sarkozy, and he may even get proportional representation. Therefore, expect the FN to show good party discipline and come out en masse for Sarkozy.
And the UDF? People like me, who are generally UDF because we believe in economic sanity and moderate laws, will vote for Sarkozy because France needs law and order. The more left will vote for Royal.
I do not believe that the UDF will split 50/50. UDF voters are not economic socialists; they are more conservative in the sense of favoring rational markets. I think UDF will be more 60/40 for Sarkozy. Villiers will go for Sarkozy. The Communists of various stripe will all go for Royal. And because France is essentially a family-oriented conservative country which is, right now, particularly disgusted with criminality and lawlessness and danger, that means Sarkozy will be the next President. Because the Right currently controls Parliament, Sarkozy will get his “100 Days”, although if the Left wins Parliament in June (they won’t) the 100 Days will end abruptly.
My hope is that Sarkozy reneges on Affirmative Action. That is the most direly catastrophic element of his electoral platform. If, with the Crown, he contents himself with busting heads, things will turn out better.
America's parasites would elect a skunk as Democrat President if the skunk offered more "free" welfare, "free" health care, "free" pharmaceuticals, "free" education, etc.
“You are so right. Sarko already got a lot of le Pen supporters. He will most likely pick up more.
UDF members voted 82% Bayrou, 12% Sarko, 3% Royal, and 3% le Pen .”
Le Pen voters are much more interested in law and order and nation and family than they are in economics. That’s why I just don’t believe that Le Pen will go and endorse the Socialist who wants to bring Turkey into the EU etc. If he does do it, I will be surprised. I think Sarkozy will offer proportional representation in Parliament, which will give the FN some seats, and Le Pen will leap for it. The FN in Parliament will help the Right, not the Left. It will also anchor the Right further rightward on crime and immigration and EU issues, which is not a bad thing, really.
In the second round I expect the UDF to split just as it did here, nowhere near 50/50 Sarko/Sego; much more like 60/40 (at a MINIMUM) and probably more like 75/25 for Sarkozy. I am basically a UDF type, and Sarkozy and the UMP are on this side of sane. The Socialists are well-meaning children. UDF people are smart and relatively philosophical (he says modestly). I think Sarkozy will not have a difficult time winning the second round, because the UDF and the FN and Villier’s royalists will all come out to vote for law and order. But what do I know?
Under Sarkozy France is not going to weaken worker protections or Social Security anyway, so Royal is not going to be able to make much headway in that regard. If Sarkozy is a damned fool he will try to cut away worker protections during his 100 Days, which will provoke a general strike, hand Parliament to the Socialists in July, and end his Presidency before it begins. He’s not going to do that.
There is a joke about the 35 hours, which goes something like this: “What? 35 hours? Why not 12?” Even the left-leaning are not idiots. They know that there is a point at which the economy does not function, and that the 35 hours is about the limit of it. Promising to take the economy further left is actually a weakness in Royal’s platform. Truth is, people like it about where it is: growing, prosperous, and protected. They will resist pulling it further right, but they know it can’t go further left.
When I say “people” I do not refer to every college child in a Paris cafe. I mean the majority of thinking adults. I don’t think Sarkozy is going to have nearly as tough a time as you do.
I think law and order is on the mind of many, many.
My fear is that Sarkozy will win on law and order but then implement the two worst parts of his program at once: Affirmative Action and trying to chop down worker protections. The second will end the Right’s control of Parliament and throw Sarkozy into cohabitation will the Socialists. It would be better if he restrained his native elan and focused on crime and national discipline. I think he will be given the chance to do so.
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