Under Sarkozy France is not going to weaken worker protections or Social Security anyway, so Royal is not going to be able to make much headway in that regard. If Sarkozy is a damned fool he will try to cut away worker protections during his 100 Days, which will provoke a general strike, hand Parliament to the Socialists in July, and end his Presidency before it begins. He’s not going to do that.
There is a joke about the 35 hours, which goes something like this: “What? 35 hours? Why not 12?” Even the left-leaning are not idiots. They know that there is a point at which the economy does not function, and that the 35 hours is about the limit of it. Promising to take the economy further left is actually a weakness in Royal’s platform. Truth is, people like it about where it is: growing, prosperous, and protected. They will resist pulling it further right, but they know it can’t go further left.
When I say “people” I do not refer to every college child in a Paris cafe. I mean the majority of thinking adults. I don’t think Sarkozy is going to have nearly as tough a time as you do.
I think law and order is on the mind of many, many.
My fear is that Sarkozy will win on law and order but then implement the two worst parts of his program at once: Affirmative Action and trying to chop down worker protections. The second will end the Right’s control of Parliament and throw Sarkozy into cohabitation will the Socialists. It would be better if he restrained his native elan and focused on crime and national discipline. I think he will be given the chance to do so.
Just as the Dems try to scare the old and demagog the issue of SS, so will Sego on France's generous social welfare system. She has the Left tied up, but now she must appeal to the middle. One way is to scare people about your opponent, true or not.
If Sarkozy is a damned fool he will try to cut away worker protections during his 100 Days, which will provoke a general strike, hand Parliament to the Socialists in July, and end his Presidency before it begins. He’s not going to do that.
Of course not, anymore than a Rep President would on privatizing SS. It is the seriousness of the charge and not whether he will do something or not. Moreover, Parliament would have to support such a change. And that is very unlikely.
When I say “people” I do not refer to every college child in a Paris cafe. I mean the majority of thinking adults. I don’t think Sarkozy is going to have nearly as tough a time as you do.
I have said that I think he will win, but that it is going to be close. Sarkozy has his own baggage and the Socialists and their ideas are still a major force in the country. By our standards, both of them are flaming liberals.
I think law and order is on the mind of many. My fear is that Sarkozy will win on law and order but then implement the two worst parts of his program at once: Affirmative Action and trying to chop down worker protections.
Sego is trying to latch on to the law and order issue as well. Her slogan is, "We need a just order." Sarko's is "We need justice and order." Both parties understand the importance of the issue in the public's mind. Sego will try to paint Sarko as another LePen on this issue, which would not be helpful to Sarko if that connection is made. Sarko is trying to be a "law and order" type, but also be sensitive to minorities. It is a balancing act. Sarko's categorical stance on Turkey's admittance to the EU, i.e., never, will play well with some and not with others. Sego is in favor, in time.