Appreciate the encouraging poll. However, the left will be very determined to keep Sarko out. They will stop at nothing, because this man is a real agent of change. The combined vote for real change candidates (Sarko and LePen) was only 41 or 42 percent. Bayrou could do terrible damage if he endorses Royal. In addition, I don’t think we can count on LePen endorsing Sarko.
I was encouraged by Sarko’s and Royal’s speeches, which I just saw on C-SPAN. Sarko is dynamic and he fired up the crowd. He speaks very clearly and tightly — energetic and with a real message. Royal made what I thought of as a bad Oval Office address, speaking to the TV more than to the crowd, which seemed to lose some of its initial enthusiasm. She seemed hesitant, very cautious, and said basically nothing of substance. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily make her a loser, but it’s not necessarily helpful either.
Your analysis of Sarko and Royal’s speeches echoes how I saw them as well. To me, she had a defeatest attitude, almost angry. Flat, boring, and full of platitudes and banalities.
The ABS “anyone but Sarko” and “Sarko=Facho” has begin.
Royal wants people to sign up for her 7 minutes for 7 Pillars of the Presidential Pact. A hideous reference to the 7 Pillars of Islam.
I think Bayrou’s voters will split almost 50/50. If he endorses Royal, he will lose most of the leadership of his Party UDF, which has already endorsed Sarko.
Le Pen is planning to endorse Royal.
“In addition, I don’t think we can count on LePen endorsing Sarko.”
You can’t count on it. Sarkozy will have to deliver on the promise of proportional representation, then Le Pen will endorse him. It is the auction right now. If Royal offers proportional represenation and Sarkozy does not, the FN could go for Royal for strategic reasons.