Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[philman_36]

To me for one. Are you practicing being dense or is it natural?
I'm lost. Your response has "| To 311 |" where I queried...
Get close to what?
Regarding your Hillary will have more to spend than Rudy and she won't even get close. statement.
Care to clarify? Are you saying Hillary won't get close to you?

[justshutupandtakeit]

That is YOUR opinion. Why must I bow to YOUR opinion?

[justshutupandtakeit]

Congratualations.

[philman_36]

If my own words do not suffice...
They don't. They've been shown to be wrong before.

[massadvj]

Well, not just merchants, but merchants and farmers and other business interests. I used the term generically. The two biggest issues driving the American Revolution were taxes and property rights.

You may think money is crude or vulgar. That's fine. I think you are in the minority as far as Republicans are concerned. Most of us have a healthy respect for money and capitalism, and do not apologize for selfishness. When you truly understand economics, you come to realize that selfishness is quite a virtue.

If you are a do-gooder perhaps you can join the other party and use your vote to steal my money and then fund whatever cause you consider just. Protecting our money from the socialists is the primary motivation driving the financial backers. The social conservatives can no longer deliver in this regard, as evidenced by 2006, so the money is shifting to others that show more promise. That's the reality.

[Pox]

Polls don't mean jack at this point in time. The left and right (or in this case the left and left) haven't even started slinging mud at each other. Once the MSM RINO Rudy lovefest has installed him as the Republican candidate, out come the long knives, and it will not be pretty in the least.

Conservatives are not currently impressed with this crop of candidates. Come election day, that will translate into an even larger majority in the House and Senate for the left.

Endorsements at this point mean squat. Perhaps by January they will gain more gravity, but at this point, way too early in the election cycle, nothing is engraved in stone.

Again, instead of acting as lemmings for the liberal MSM, how about we encourage a better candidate that will encourage heavy conservative turnout that will help us take back Congress along with preserving the White House for the Republicans. There is more than enough time to do exactly that.

[philman_36]

Congratualations.
Congratulations, you've entered the Incomprehensible Zone, since that makes no sense whatsoever.

[papasmurf]

Oh, They'll take your money HERE . LOL

:O)

P

[InfraRed]

That is YOUR opinion. Why must I bow to YOUR opinion?

It's not my opinion that you are supporting Rudy. That much is pretty obvious to all around here. If you never run from a good fight, then why not fight for one of the candidates who the liberal media refuses to acknowledge? I guess it's easier to fight for a candidate who has already been annointed by the media?

[philman_36]

My what a large bunch of assumptions you have about me.

The two biggest issues driving the American Revolution were taxes and property rights.
Beyond a doubt taxation without representation was a driving issue. The biggest issue was tyranny.
Those taxes and property rights infringements came about because of tyranny.
Horse then cart, not cart then horse.

[dforest]

Whatever, justshutupandtakeit, those pics sure don't titillate me, they are foolish and make him look like a pansy ass. People aren't looking for theatrics, they are looking for a President capable of showing good judgment instead of taking advantage of one situation, which they really screwed up, to look like a savior of the people.

They are funny and fine if you are not running for POTUS. I will admit his legs aren't too bad.

Other than that, Rudy will be toast.

You will see this happen very soon.

[massadvj]

As much as you want to get all ideological, this race is no longer about liberal versus conservative. We can worry about liberal versus conservative once we get our majority and the presidency back. Right now it is about winning, period. Giuliani will be the candidate until or unless you can produce a conservative candidate who can demonstrably win in November (and by "demonstrably" I mean someone that Quinnipiac or Gallup or Rasmussen or anyone else credible says can win, not just your opinion of what will happen when voters discover this or that). Your candidate will need $50 million or so to get his message out. That money must be raised RIGHT NOW, not 10 months from now. No one is going to get it, and so the nominee will be Giuliani. I am telling you now so you will have time to prepare yourselves, for what I am saying is as certain as the sun coming up tomorrow.

It's like standing on a battlefield before a battle and seeing what will happen. You look at this particular battlefield and you see there really won't be much of a battle, except here at Free Republic.

OTOH, the Dimwits are beside themselves at the prospect of a Giuliani candidacy, because they understand what it means, even if some of you hard-headed social conservative types do not. Which is why they are starting to drop Hillary like a greased cucumber. Trouble is, their money is faced with the same dilemma conervatives face: no viable alternative. Except there is one: Gore. And he is waiting in the wings.

On the Republican side, Gingrich is pulling the same strategy as Gore because it is his only shot. But the polls show little real disaffection with Rudy among the financial supporters, so Newt will stay on the sidelines.

The most likely November matchup at this point is Giuliani versus Hillary, but Giuliani versus Gore is also somewhat likely, and Giuliani versus Obama less so.

[massadvj]

You have to understand that for the loudest critics on social issues, the war on terror, taxes, or the size of government, isn't on their radar screen, thus if it comes to Rudy vs Hillary, they truely see no difference.

The same people were making the same arguments when it came to Schwartzenegger's chances of winning in California. They were all backing McClintock. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. A social moderate, fiscal conservative stands a better chance to win in the fall than a social conservative, fiscal conservative.

The real question is can a social conservative, fiscal conservative win? I do not happen to think so, but if one came along who polled near Rudy as far as matching up to Hillary, Gore and/or Obama, Rudy would be toast.

[massadvj]

Polls don't mean jack at this point in time.

In every Republican primary since WWII, the candidate who was leading in the polls a year before the first primary ended up being the nominee. I'd say they are very important at this point in time, because they determine where the money will go.

[Pox]

Please, it is NOT all about winning, as having RINO Rudy elected is not a win at all, for either Republicans, conservatives or the country as a whole. Considering that the next POTUS may likely make a couple of appointments to the SCOTUS, I believe that in this election a conservative winner is an absolute must. Considering RINO Rudy's track record and admitted admiration of Clintoon and his policies, RINO Rudy is a disaster of multiple dimensions in the making.

If Mr. Thompson declares he is running, within a month or two you will most likely see polls that reflect him as the front runner for POTUS, IMO. Although those polls will also be relatively pointless as well considering the real campaigning will not begin until spring of 08 and the opposing candidates really start flinging mud at each other, the financial support will start flowing towards Mr. Thompson.

RINO Rudy will not withstand the Clintoon onslaught, and the primary reason for that will be conservative apathy. You can bank on that. The battle is far from being focused only upon this forum, but throughout the entire Republican party and conservatives in this country. Multiple articles indicating just that have been posted over the last few weeks here.

November 08 is a LONG way off, and RINO Rudy is not the answer for Republicans or America. What part of that truism do you not understand? Giuliani is the absolute worst possible candidate for Republicans for multiple reasons I have already spelled out.

First out the gate to declare (or one of the first) does not anoint him the chosen one. As for cash, Romney already understands he needs $500 million to have a shot at a win, and I suppose that Mr. Thompson will not have nearly as difficult a time raising whatever cash is necessary, almost 2 years before the actual election, regardless of your absolutist declarations.

Stop drinking the liberal MSM koolaid and help get a conservative candidate leading the ticket. You know who I refer to, and you cannot deny he demonstrably CAN win in 08. He is far and away a much better candidate than Giuliani ever will be, and I cannot understand why those such as yourself continue to pooh pooh his chances 22 months prior to the actual election. Most of the big money donors have not even begun to decide who they will support, and I suspect most of them will be waiting anxiously for an announcement from Mr. Thompson in the next couple of months before they make up their minds.

What are you afraid of, a real conservative winning?

[Pox]

Mr. Thompson generally hasn't even been part of any polls up to this point, so your insinuation is moot at this point in time.

[Gop1040]

"As I mentioned earlier I am on the verge of being banned there (Lucianne) for "spamming".......It's depressing."

I have a brilliant idea. How about doing some positive spamming for the candidate of your choice?

[massadvj]

Mr. Thompson generally hasn't even been part of any polls up to this point, so your insinuation is moot at this point in time.

You are going to have a rude awakening when the polls with his name do come out. I've seen some intraparty polling that shows him in the single digits as a potential candidate. He has face recognition but not name recognition, so will have to spend quite a bit early on to get name recognition.

He's will not run because he is politically astute enough to see that he cannot win. Gingrich same thing. Giuliani is running about 40 percent in the primary right now. Once he gets to 50 he is in for certain. It will happen before the spring is out.

[billbears]

Now let's give it a run and slap Ron Paul's name on there. Since he's already running ahead of Brownback, Hunter, and Thompson, we'll see how he does. Personally I can't wait for the debate in May that Paul has already accepted. Wonder if any of the others will have the guts to step on stage with a conservative?

[billbears]

The man is a natural leader and give it time we can see change

Yeah, running on a good strategy too. Bring back protectionism. I'll pass thank you