Posted on 03/20/2007 8:21:54 AM PDT by areafiftyone
March 20, 2007
Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative RepublicansGingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.
An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.
Nomination Preference by Ideology
Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.
Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.
The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
Rudy Giuliani |
48 |
Rudy Giuliani |
38 |
John McCain |
26 |
John McCain |
20 |
Mitt Romney |
3 |
Newt Gingrich |
14 |
George Pataki |
2 |
Mitt Romney |
8 |
Sam Brownback |
2 |
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
Newt Gingrich |
2 |
|
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
|
|
|
|
||
All others |
3 |
All others |
9 |
|
|
||
No preference |
11 |
No preference |
9 |
Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.
Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.
If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
Rudy Giuliani |
49% |
Rudy Giuliani |
43% |
John McCain |
27% |
John McCain |
21% |
Mitt Romney |
3% |
Mitt Romney |
11% |
George Pataki |
3% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
Duncan Hunter |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
|
Tom Tancredo |
2% |
|
|
|
||
All others |
4% |
All others |
7% |
|
|
||
No preference |
11% |
No preference |
10% |
Favorable Ratings of Candidates
In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.
While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.
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Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
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Favorable |
Un- |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
80 |
11 |
10 |
Moderate/Liberal |
80 |
7 |
13 |
Conservative |
80 |
13 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
68 |
19 |
13 |
Moderate/Liberal |
66 |
17 |
17 |
Conservative |
69 |
21 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Mitt Romney |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
32 |
12 |
56 |
Moderate/Liberal |
23 |
11 |
66 |
Conservative |
38 |
13 |
49 |
Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.
The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
That is YOUR opinion. Why must I bow to YOUR opinion?
Congratualations.
You may think money is crude or vulgar. That's fine. I think you are in the minority as far as Republicans are concerned. Most of us have a healthy respect for money and capitalism, and do not apologize for selfishness. When you truly understand economics, you come to realize that selfishness is quite a virtue.
If you are a do-gooder perhaps you can join the other party and use your vote to steal my money and then fund whatever cause you consider just. Protecting our money from the socialists is the primary motivation driving the financial backers. The social conservatives can no longer deliver in this regard, as evidenced by 2006, so the money is shifting to others that show more promise. That's the reality.
It's not my opinion that you are supporting Rudy. That much is pretty obvious to all around here. If you never run from a good fight, then why not fight for one of the candidates who the liberal media refuses to acknowledge? I guess it's easier to fight for a candidate who has already been annointed by the media?
The two biggest issues driving the American Revolution were taxes and property rights.
Beyond a doubt taxation without representation was a driving issue. The biggest issue was tyranny.
Those taxes and property rights infringements came about because of tyranny.
Horse then cart, not cart then horse.
Whatever, justshutupandtakeit, those pics sure don't titillate me, they are foolish and make him look like a pansy ass. People aren't looking for theatrics, they are looking for a President capable of showing good judgment instead of taking advantage of one situation, which they really screwed up, to look like a savior of the people.
They are funny and fine if you are not running for POTUS. I will admit his legs aren't too bad.
Other than that, Rudy will be toast.
You will see this happen very soon.
It's like standing on a battlefield before a battle and seeing what will happen. You look at this particular battlefield and you see there really won't be much of a battle, except here at Free Republic.
OTOH, the Dimwits are beside themselves at the prospect of a Giuliani candidacy, because they understand what it means, even if some of you hard-headed social conservative types do not. Which is why they are starting to drop Hillary like a greased cucumber. Trouble is, their money is faced with the same dilemma conervatives face: no viable alternative. Except there is one: Gore. And he is waiting in the wings.
On the Republican side, Gingrich is pulling the same strategy as Gore because it is his only shot. But the polls show little real disaffection with Rudy among the financial supporters, so Newt will stay on the sidelines.
The most likely November matchup at this point is Giuliani versus Hillary, but Giuliani versus Gore is also somewhat likely, and Giuliani versus Obama less so.
The same people were making the same arguments when it came to Schwartzenegger's chances of winning in California. They were all backing McClintock. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. A social moderate, fiscal conservative stands a better chance to win in the fall than a social conservative, fiscal conservative.
The real question is can a social conservative, fiscal conservative win? I do not happen to think so, but if one came along who polled near Rudy as far as matching up to Hillary, Gore and/or Obama, Rudy would be toast.
In every Republican primary since WWII, the candidate who was leading in the polls a year before the first primary ended up being the nominee. I'd say they are very important at this point in time, because they determine where the money will go.
Mr. Thompson generally hasn't even been part of any polls up to this point, so your insinuation is moot at this point in time.
You are going to have a rude awakening when the polls with his name do come out. I've seen some intraparty polling that shows him in the single digits as a potential candidate. He has face recognition but not name recognition, so will have to spend quite a bit early on to get name recognition.
He's will not run because he is politically astute enough to see that he cannot win. Gingrich same thing. Giuliani is running about 40 percent in the primary right now. Once he gets to 50 he is in for certain. It will happen before the spring is out.
Now let's give it a run and slap Ron Paul's name on there. Since he's already running ahead of Brownback, Hunter, and Thompson, we'll see how he does. Personally I can't wait for the debate in May that Paul has already accepted. Wonder if any of the others will have the guts to step on stage with a conservative?
Yeah, running on a good strategy too. Bring back protectionism. I'll pass thank you
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