Posted on 03/20/2007 8:21:54 AM PDT by areafiftyone
March 20, 2007
Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative RepublicansGingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.
An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.
Nomination Preference by Ideology
Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.
Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.
The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
Rudy Giuliani |
48 |
Rudy Giuliani |
38 |
John McCain |
26 |
John McCain |
20 |
Mitt Romney |
3 |
Newt Gingrich |
14 |
George Pataki |
2 |
Mitt Romney |
8 |
Sam Brownback |
2 |
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
Newt Gingrich |
2 |
|
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
|
|
|
|
||
All others |
3 |
All others |
9 |
|
|
||
No preference |
11 |
No preference |
9 |
Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.
Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.
If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
Rudy Giuliani |
49% |
Rudy Giuliani |
43% |
John McCain |
27% |
John McCain |
21% |
Mitt Romney |
3% |
Mitt Romney |
11% |
George Pataki |
3% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
Duncan Hunter |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
|
Tom Tancredo |
2% |
|
|
|
||
All others |
4% |
All others |
7% |
|
|
||
No preference |
11% |
No preference |
10% |
Favorable Ratings of Candidates
In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.
While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.
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Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
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Favorable |
Un- |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
80 |
11 |
10 |
Moderate/Liberal |
80 |
7 |
13 |
Conservative |
80 |
13 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
68 |
19 |
13 |
Moderate/Liberal |
66 |
17 |
17 |
Conservative |
69 |
21 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Mitt Romney |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
32 |
12 |
56 |
Moderate/Liberal |
23 |
11 |
66 |
Conservative |
38 |
13 |
49 |
Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.
The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Then I suggest you put your money where your mouth is. $8 dollars will get you a hundred if Thompson gets the nomination, let alone the presidency. I like Thompson and I hope you win. But it's not a bet I would make.
Those polls are as valid as DU polls and for the same reason- there will be tens of millions of voters who are NOT hard rightists or hard Leftists. We have no way of controlling for people who want to skew the results to hurt the GOP.
Why do people ignore the wisdom they happily apply to the Left's actions? It is UNIVERSALLY acknowledged here that allowing the DUmmies to choose the Party of Treason's candidate would mean CERTAIN defeat yet they are oblivious to the fact that allowing FReepers to choose the Republican would do just the same. This site is NOT representative.
Perhaps you should go back and read some of the thread before chiming in. My point, all along, has been that Rudy is DIVISIVE. The most recent presidential elections make it obvious to all but the most obtuse that the Republican party cannot afford a DIVISIVE candidate. The FR forum and polls show a strong indication that Rudy is a divisive candidate. How many voters do you really want to drive away from the Republican party? A voter here or there, no problem. Drive large blocks of voters away (gun owners, pro lifers, anti gay mariage, anti illegal immigration, etc., etc., etc.), and we have a BIG problem.
You convinced me. Any poll without consulting you or me is invalid. Glad that was straightened out.
You know exactly why you oppose Giuliani so stop the pretense.
Then shouldn't you be selling Rudy to some "moderates" and liberals elsewhere? No offense, but if this site is too conservative to support Rudy, then what is the point in trying? It seems a wasted effort.
Oy vey! publically = publicly
Our candidates in New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, California, New York and lots of other places are itching for a Giuliani candidacy because he will be viable in these states and it has been a long time since Republicans in marginal districts in these places have had someone they can campaign with.
Giuliani beats Hillary by 8 in New Jersey right now. He beats her by four in Pennsylvania right now. Far from disenchantment, Republican congressional and senate candidates are extremely enthusiastic about Rudy, which is why he has more endorsements from congress members than any other candidate.
And since this is the only thing you've touched on out of all of your previous "claims" I'm assuming that the rest of your post was nothing more than you spouting off at the mouth.
To me for one. Are you practicing being dense or is it natural?
I never run from a good fight. Besides the site WILL support Rudy when he gets the nomination. Hell I may not vote for him in the primary.
Why do I go on a thread and fight for scores of posts with those believing the Confederates were right? Or argue over the NFL?
Who wants to talk to a bunch of yesmen about anything?
The RATs and you know it. Don't get carried away. They do not let go of that stuff lightly.
It will be used as needed. Impossible for Rudy to hide in his blonde wig and fishnet hose!
Your explanation is not good enough for me. I never underestimate the Democrats.
I may detest all they stand for, which Rudy also stands for part of the same, but they are wily and mean.
They also have the media to carry their water.
No I didn't. But in any case I don't do links not on this or any other thread. If my own words do not suffice I am not going to throw thousands from someone eles at you.
Then why not fight for one of the good guys, rather than Rudy the divisive RINO?
Rudy does not need to hide from pictures of him performing for charity affairs or on SNL. Most people understand theatrics are only that.
Those pictures only titilate the Rudyphobic they have no other importance.
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