Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[papasmurf]

"As bad as an HRC presidency would be, I would rather let that embarrassment (ala Carter) be directly put upon the dims instead of the same embarrassing results be reflected upon the Republicans by RINO Rudy. Consider that."

I'm in your corner on that one!

:O)

P

[massadvj]

Hitlery can be beaten easily by Mr. Thompson, and I'm going on record now as stating that Giuliani will not win the election

Then I suggest you put your money where your mouth is. $8 dollars will get you a hundred if Thompson gets the nomination, let alone the presidency. I like Thompson and I hope you win. But it's not a bet I would make.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Those polls are as valid as DU polls and for the same reason- there will be tens of millions of voters who are NOT hard rightists or hard Leftists. We have no way of controlling for people who want to skew the results to hurt the GOP.

Why do people ignore the wisdom they happily apply to the Left's actions? It is UNIVERSALLY acknowledged here that allowing the DUmmies to choose the Party of Treason's candidate would mean CERTAIN defeat yet they are oblivious to the fact that allowing FReepers to choose the Republican would do just the same. This site is NOT representative.

[InfraRed]

Gee whiz, a FR poll as evidence Rudy can be beaten?

Perhaps you should go back and read some of the thread before chiming in. My point, all along, has been that Rudy is DIVISIVE. The most recent presidential elections make it obvious to all but the most obtuse that the Republican party cannot afford a DIVISIVE candidate. The FR forum and polls show a strong indication that Rudy is a divisive candidate. How many voters do you really want to drive away from the Republican party? A voter here or there, no problem. Drive large blocks of voters away (gun owners, pro lifers, anti gay mariage, anti illegal immigration, etc., etc., etc.), and we have a BIG problem.

[philman_36]

Rudy's stances are no mystery.
Well give a link.
His accomplishments have been listed over and over as you know.
But how do I know they're the right ones? You've publically stated that the ones listed earlier were wrong. Give me a link to get the straight poop.
These you ignore to concentrate upon the laws he served under and pretenses that he would govern the nation like he did NYC.
And how do you know that? And if I am then you're being given a perfect opportunity to throw them in my face where I can't ignore them.
This is consistent with your tendency to underestimate his ability, his appeal and his intelligence.
And where have I done that? Be precise.
Add to that the great love of insulting those who support him and you don't get a winning combination.
And where have I done that? Be precise.

[justshutupandtakeit]

You convinced me. Any poll without consulting you or me is invalid. Glad that was straightened out.

[philman_36]

This country was established not by peasants with pitchforks,or even religious zealots, but by merchants mad about their taxes.
WHEW! Now that's a new historical twist. Are you saying that only merchants paid taxes?

[Pox]

Why make a bet on a candidate who has not declared as of yet? Pointless, obviously. Our mission should be to encourage him to run due to the uninspiring (for the most part) choosings that have been offered to now.

If you're so eager to hand even more seats in the House and Senate to the left come election day, just keep on pushing RINO Rudy.

Caveat Emptor.

[justshutupandtakeit]

You know exactly why you oppose Giuliani so stop the pretense.

[InfraRed]

This site is NOT representative.

Then shouldn't you be selling Rudy to some "moderates" and liberals elsewhere? No offense, but if this site is too conservative to support Rudy, then what is the point in trying? It seems a wasted effort.

[philman_36]

Hillary will have more to spend than Rudy and she won't even get close.
Get close to what?

[philman_36]

Oy vey! publically = publicly

[massadvj]

If you're so eager to hand even more seats in the House and Senate to the left come election day, just keep on pushing RINO Rudy

Our candidates in New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, California, New York and lots of other places are itching for a Giuliani candidacy because he will be viable in these states and it has been a long time since Republicans in marginal districts in these places have had someone they can campaign with.

Giuliani beats Hillary by 8 in New Jersey right now. He beats her by four in Pennsylvania right now. Far from disenchantment, Republican congressional and senate candidates are extremely enthusiastic about Rudy, which is why he has more endorsements from congress members than any other candidate.

[philman_36]

You know exactly why you oppose Giuliani so stop the pretense.
But you've said, more or less, that everything I've read about him is wrong. Where is the straight scoop? Now is your chance to set me straight and convert me. All it takes is a little effort on your part.

And since this is the only thing you've touched on out of all of your previous "claims" I'm assuming that the rest of your post was nothing more than you spouting off at the mouth.

[justshutupandtakeit]

To me for one. Are you practicing being dense or is it natural?

[justshutupandtakeit]

I never run from a good fight. Besides the site WILL support Rudy when he gets the nomination. Hell I may not vote for him in the primary.

Why do I go on a thread and fight for scores of posts with those believing the Confederates were right? Or argue over the NFL?

Who wants to talk to a bunch of yesmen about anything?

[dforest]

The RATs and you know it. Don't get carried away. They do not let go of that stuff lightly.

It will be used as needed. Impossible for Rudy to hide in his blonde wig and fishnet hose!

Your explanation is not good enough for me. I never underestimate the Democrats.

I may detest all they stand for, which Rudy also stands for part of the same, but they are wily and mean.

They also have the media to carry their water.

[justshutupandtakeit]

No I didn't. But in any case I don't do links not on this or any other thread. If my own words do not suffice I am not going to throw thousands from someone eles at you.

[InfraRed]

I never run from a good fight.

Then why not fight for one of the good guys, rather than Rudy the divisive RINO?

[justshutupandtakeit]

Rudy does not need to hide from pictures of him performing for charity affairs or on SNL. Most people understand theatrics are only that.

Those pictures only titilate the Rudyphobic they have no other importance.