Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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If past actions are any indication of future actions, none.
I think you mean Rudy will ge the "Cross Dresser Votes".
At least he hasn't climbed atop a tank yet.
Not even close! LMAO!
Perhaps a bit too "Strict"
A year from now all the candidates will be one year older and the campaign will still not have nominees.
... and love is blind.
"Much better that the country is run by a Republican leftist wacko"
I love it.
He's too white.
The election is still over a year and a half away. Anything can happen between now and then. The story is far from over.
Ouch... But worth repeating.
Better yet, let's all call for a "Draft Joe Lieberman" movement!!!!
He's about the same as Rudy, give or take a little, and he'd surely draw a lot of dems.
Feh!!!
FMCDH(BITS)
FMCDH(BITS)
No way in Hell would I vote for the gun-grabbing, pro-abortion, pro-illegal alien, globalist, showboating Guiliani.
The rest of the question SHOULD be, do we want to TRY and win at ANY cost, even by jettisoning MANY of the CONSTITUTIONAL and/or LIFE-OR-DEATH, CORE positions (2nd Amendment and Right-To-Life for unborn innocents) we SHOULD revere, support, defend, and FIGHT TO THE DEATH to maintain, or reestablish?
I think not.
I'd rather risk losing a battle, and win the long term war.
Selling out by supporting and voting for a liberal RINO is NOT what is best for our party and our country.
Uhhh... The first sentence in the column:
"This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington."
"Well, considering the totalitarian bent in hillary, beating her is by far the best thing anyone could do for the country."
Two little facts here, one, she hasn't won the nod yet and two we still haven't picked our guy.
Usually those ahead this early never make it to the end.
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