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Rudy Beats Hillary – End of Story
Special to FreeRepublic ^ | 4 March 2007 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob

This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.

We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:

Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.

Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.

But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.

Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.

On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.

It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.

We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.

First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.

Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.

But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.

The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?

Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.

I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.

Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.

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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu

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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cpac; duncanhunter; duncanloses2all; electionpresident; elections; giuliani; guiliani; hillary; hillaryclinton; kevmospam; lol; mittromney
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My task is to call 'em as I see 'em, and let the chips fall where they may. There is sometimes a rather large gap between how things would be if I had dictatorial control of the world, and how things really are.

So, quarrel my conclusions if you choose. But stick to the observable facts. This is not an opinion/preference column.

John / Billybob

1 posted on 03/05/2007 6:46:03 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
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To: Congressman Billybob

oh man, this thread is going to be wild.


2 posted on 03/05/2007 6:46:58 PM PST by oceanview
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To: Congressman Billybob

A year from now you may be right, you may be wrong. It's way too early to call.


3 posted on 03/05/2007 6:48:09 PM PST by DTogo (I haven't left the GOP, the GOP left me.)
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To: Congressman Billybob
I think this is the end of the story.

"I would like to run on the Democratic line if I could figure out how to do it"
-Rudy Giuliani

4 posted on 03/05/2007 6:49:13 PM PST by Vision ("Delight yourself in the Lord; and he will give you your heart's desires." Psalm 37:4)
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To: Congressman Billybob

If we are simply looking for anyone who can beat Hillary, why not support Obama?


5 posted on 03/05/2007 6:50:24 PM PST by Mr. Brightside
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To: Congressman Billybob
"Rudy Beats Hillary – End of Story"

False and false.

6 posted on 03/05/2007 6:51:19 PM PST by Enosh (†)
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To: Congressman Billybob
If the GOP is comfortable nominating Rudy Giuliani, then there is little point to the GOP anymore.

And that's an observable fact.

If I have to choose between Liberals, I'll take the one that gives me "free stuff." After all, with all of my issues off of the table, aren't I just supposed to vote my pocketbook?
7 posted on 03/05/2007 6:51:36 PM PST by TitansAFC ("My 80% enemy is not my 20% friend" -- Common Sense)
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To: Congressman Billybob
My task is to call 'em as I see 'em

Yeah, mine too. And if you vote for a gun grabber against a gun grabber, a gun grabber gets elected.
8 posted on 03/05/2007 6:52:12 PM PST by mysterio
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To: Congressman Billybob
Any body that is for a gun grabber, for the planned murder of the most helpless and is against American Sovereignty will never get my vote!
9 posted on 03/05/2007 6:52:24 PM PST by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (Vote for RINOS, lose and complain by sending a self-abused stomped elephant.)
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So does BILL Clinton.


10 posted on 03/05/2007 6:52:37 PM PST by Captainpaintball
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To: DTogo
A year from now you may be right, you may be wrong. It's way too early to call.

Halleluiah. It's ten months 'til the primaries begin. A bit to early to crown anyone.

11 posted on 03/05/2007 6:53:00 PM PST by atomicpossum (Replies must follow approved guidelines or you will be kill-filed without appeal.)
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To: Congressman Billybob

Lets hold the primaries first.

I do not think Hillery willmake it, and a real conservative can beat her.

Besides I should not pick someone becasue I think they can beat someone else, but pick them based on what they will do for our country.


12 posted on 03/05/2007 6:53:03 PM PST by stockpirate (Rudy would be Very Bad for this country and Very Bad for the Republican Party!)
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To: Congressman Billybob

I think you are spot on. Rudi will get crossover votes. Hillary wont.

The question is. Do the pubs want to win?


13 posted on 03/05/2007 6:53:29 PM PST by cajungirl (no)
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To: Congressman Billybob
Another donnybrook!

Observable facts? It's a noble concept with absolutely no chance.

14 posted on 03/05/2007 6:53:31 PM PST by wireman
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To: Congressman Billybob

I already support Guiliani. I don't want to give the leftist whackos a chance to run this country.


15 posted on 03/05/2007 6:53:36 PM PST by popdonnelly ([Democrats] are jubilant at our disasters and are cast down when the rebels are defeated -Sept. 1862)
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And I know Bill isn't running.


16 posted on 03/05/2007 6:53:39 PM PST by Captainpaintball
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To: stockpirate
I should not pick someone becasue I think they can beat someone else, but pick them based on what they will do for our country.

Thank you.
17 posted on 03/05/2007 6:54:04 PM PST by cripplecreek (Peace without victory is a temporary illusion.)
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To: Congressman Billybob

"Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama"

Not true her first bouit with him she lost 15 points nd he picked up about the same.


18 posted on 03/05/2007 6:55:54 PM PST by stockpirate (Rudy would be Very Bad for this country and Very Bad for the Republican Party!)
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To: Congressman Billybob

Expect 45% of the party to go fishing if this liberal tries to take the party of Ronald Reagan. You must be a "pod Person" from invasion of the body snatchers.


19 posted on 03/05/2007 6:56:34 PM PST by migraines
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To: Congressman Billybob

I have only one quibble with your otherwise excellent column: Who is "we"? James Taranto habitually uses the imperial "we" when composing "Best of the Web Today" for OpinionJournal.com. I must admit to finding it distracting and a bit annoying.

That being said, thank you very much for the first hand report from the CPAC shindig. I have read so many different spins on the event it is quite difficult to sort fact from fiction.


20 posted on 03/05/2007 6:56:45 PM PST by RebelBanker (May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one.)
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