Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesnt have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didnt fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didnt air. Heres our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Heres why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the enthusiastic support of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats yes, Democrats support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
Its happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate owns the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, its clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didnt lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said we do not agree on all things. He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, I made a mistake. Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated hes not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guilianis victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasnt dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization thats close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. Its long since coeducational, but it retains a drag routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that its darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like youve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) wont amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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Rudy was referring to how elections are run in NYC. They have what is known as "fusion candidates"...the more parties that endorse you, the more lines you get on the ballot with the potential for more votes...it has nothing to do with "I'm really a Democrat"...google "electoral fusion"..
I don't call it "Strict" when I think that a party that supposedly believes in the Constitution embraces a candidate that does not value or respect the BOR. This is a typical "I know better than you" person that believes everyone else is an idiot. NYC personified. HE is a dangerous man if you believe in anything other than the dollar. You can't be strong on anti-terrorism and weak on the border and illegals.
Funny graphic verax!
Ping to #177 flashbunny.
There are politicians that I can agree with on issues and dislike or distrust personally.
There are some that I can disagree with on issues and still like or trust personally.
There are some that I cannot agree with nor can I like or trust.
I don't agree with nor like nor trust hillary.
I agree with and like Newt.
I don't agree with but like and trust Rudy.
I think that Rudy can make a fine president and get some very positive things done.
If Stalin were running as a Republican and was clear more conservative than Hitler, who was running as a Democrat, would you be touting the candidacy of Stalin? I actually believe you would.
The doctrine is not bigotry; the uses to which it is put very well can be.
Do we really want to go back to burning heretics at the stake?
We "purists" aren't asking for a perfect candidate, we're asking for someone that isn't a liberal on issue after issue and is generally conservative. When there is virtually no difference between two candidates, what is the point of even bothering caring?
RINOs and liberal Republicans do more damage to the conservative cause than liberal Democrats do. Eight years of a RINO and/or a Democrat in charge is far worse than four years of Democrat. From Christie Todd Whitman to Michael Bloomberg to Arnold Schwartzenkennedy, RINO politicians have consistently been a disaster.
It's disgraceful those calling themselves conservatives can't even fight for a conservative candidate in a primary.
Why would you believe that anymore than anyone would believe John Kerry, dressing up in an orange jumpsuit and carrying a rifle, was in favor of gun rights?
One has to be pretty gulliable to believe a man that is rabidly in favor of abortion rights that has proven to have no moral compass or character in his personal life would keep such a promise.
As a Duncan Hunter supporter I am choosing not to engage in debate on this Rudy Giuliani thread on Free Republic. As a freeper I am disappointed that there are fans of a liberal presidential candidate trying to push socially liberal views on this socially conservative forum. In particular, I have noticed that the Rudy G fans do not answer posts questioning the qualitative substance of their candidate, or the posts are met merely with insults.
Duncan Hunter's campaign website
http://www.gohunter08.com/
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Video of Rudy Giuliani in his own words
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVBtPIrEleM
Transcript of video below.
Will the real Rudy show up at CPAC?
Culture of life:
ABC clip:
George Will: "Do you think Roe v Wade was good constitutional law?"
Rudy Giuliani: "Yes I believe, I believe it is."
Cnn Clip December 2, 1999:
Announcer: "Giuliani was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial birth abortions, something Bush strongly supports."
Rudy Giuliani : "No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing."
Immigration
CNN clip:
Announcer: "Back in 1996, mayor Giuliani went to federal court to challenge new federal laws requiring the city to inform the federal government about illegal immigrants."
Rudy Giuliani: "There isn't a mayor or a public official in this country that's more strongly pro immigrant than I am. Including disagreeing with President Clinton when he signed an anti-immigration legislation about two or three years ago."
Gun control:
CNN clip
Rudy Giuliani: "I'm in favor of gun control"
Meet The Press:
Tim Russert: "How about registration of all handguns?"
Rudy Giuliani: "You know I'm in favor of that. I've been on your show many times."
Gay Rights:
CNN Clip:
Announcer: "As mayor he supported civil unions, and extending health and other benefits to gay couples."
ABC Clip: "I supported domestic partnership legislation and signed it"
Meet The Press:
Tim Russert: "So should gay people be openly allowed to serve?"
Rudy Giuliani: "I think people should be judged on the merits. And there should not be a specific focus on someone's sexual orientation."
First Amendment:
ABC Clip
Cokie Roberts: "Would you vote in the senate in favor of Mccain / Feingold?"
Rudy Giuliani: "Yes, I'm a big supporter of Mccain / Feingold. I have been for a long time."
Party Loyalty:
ABC Clip:
Rudy Giuliani: "Frankly George, I'd like to run on all the lines. I'd like to run on the liberal line, the conservative line, I'd like to run on the democratic line if I could figure out how to do it."
Conservative Values:
Meet The Press:
Tim Russert: "Whether it's gays in the military, gun control, campaign finance, late term abortion - you and Hillary Clinton are in sync on those issues."
Rudy Giuliani: "Well then maybe the other side should stop the 'He's part of the vast right wing conspiracy'."
Welcome To CPAC, Rudy!
End clip.
Mitt Romney is courting the vote of conservatives. If he becomes President, I wouldn't expect him to stab in the back the conservatives he's going to need in 2012.
I'll admit it's certainly possible he could abandon conservatives once elected, figuring that that name recognition would allow him to win in 2012 even without their votes, but the risk of that happening is less worrisome than the near certainty that a candidate who is more interested in chasing liberals' votes rather than earning conservatives' votes will run even further left once elected.
I know McCain is unacceptably bad (McCain-Feingold, among other things). I know that Rudy is unacceptably bad (gun lawsuits; sanctuary city policies). Of the people who would seem to have any chance at all, Romney is the only one who is even marginally acceptable, and he seems like he might actually be fairly decent.
I don't think Mitt Romney is planning to use the Presidency to preach Mormonism, so I don't see the threat.
Certainly in the Parable of the Good Samaritan, Jesus makes clear that a heathen who does what is right is more to be blessed than a religious person who does not. Feel free to regard Rudy as a heathen, but I don't see why that should disqualify him from the presidency if his show him to be purer in heart than many who call themselves "Christians".
Rudy is Hillary lite.
He is for the illegals and amnesty, guest workers, etc.
For those in flyover country & the burbs it is not in your face or costing you so you can be Expedient in your voting.
This is another Front on the War on Terror.
You can't be for one part of the WOT and not the other.
It is a matter of which takes over first.
I am against both.
bttt
The whole Giuliani speech is up on FR as of about an hour ago. It would be a good exercise for you to read that speech, and then say why you disagree, or why you think he was lying in that speech. Because, if he was telling the truth in that speech, it is grossly false to call him "Hillary lite."
John / Billybob
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