Rudy Beats Hillary – End of Story

Special to FreeRepublic ^ | 4 March 2007 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

[Congressman Billybob]

This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.

We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:

Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.

Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.

But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.

Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.

On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.

It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.

We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.

First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.

Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.

But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.

The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?

Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.

I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.

Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.

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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu

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[hellbender]

Gun rights are not a "social issue." They are a fundamental matter of Constitutionally guaranteed liberty, given us by Founding Fathers because they very rightly feared government, as all conservatives should. Abortion is not some abstract theological matter of concern only to the very religious, either. It is about the most fundamental right any human can possess--the right to life. How can anyone think these are minor issues?

[PhilDragoo]

Rudy has the stuff to square off with the Seventh Century death cult, its fifth-column media, its peace Democrat allies.

Fiscal endorsments from the caliber of George Will.

Judicial counselling from Ted Olson.

The core elements of vintage Goldwater, Reagan and Newtonian Contract: national security and fiscal responsibility.

And Rudy has the likability to be widely approved, the proven leadership to draw support.

And I would not be too hasty to reset given an Obama or Edwards victory. They are empty, but empty was good enough to run Gore and Kerry, almost to victory.

The propensity toward self-immolation to the contrary notwithstanding, the choice between vanquisher of barbarians, and Madame Mao will draw out the lame and the frail to save the realm.

[hellbender]

Can you produce a picture of any past President of either party in drag? Reagan? Eisenhower? Truman? Kennedy? Ford? Bush I or II? Lincoln? Washington? Jefferson? Is this what you consider dignified behavior worthy of the highest office in the land? Is this the great "leader" who will lead our troops in the War on Terror? Just how trivial and trashy has our country become, that we consider this normal?

[staytrue]

"I would like to run on the Democratic line if I could figure out how to do it"

I watched the video and your post is slanderous and taken out of context. Your stupid attempt at character assasination is beneath a conservative and more befitting the CBS NEWS.

The whole quote is "I would like to run on all the lines, the conservative line, the liberal line, I would like to run on the Democratic line if I could figure out how to do it"

[staytrue]

If the GOP is comfortable nominating Rudy Giuliani, then there is little point to the GOP anymore.

The truth is If the GOP is comfortable nominating Rudy Giuliani, then there is little point to YOU BEING IN the GOP anymore. Go join the 1 percenters in the constitution/libertarian party.

[staytrue]

pick them based on what they will do for our country.

If you look at NYC pre Guilliani and post Guilliani, one can only conclude that after a Rudy presidency, the USA will become a shining city on the hill and the envy of the world.

[staytrue]

Expect 45% of the party to go fishing if this liberal tries to take the party of Ronald Reagan.

Try 3 % which is the current combined polling of "true conservatives" Hunter, Tancredo and Brownback.

[hellbender]

"there is little point to YOU BEING IN the GOP anymore. Go join the 1 percenters in the constitution/libertarian party."

There you go again. This is not the first time the Rudycrats here on FR have told conservatives to leave the Party of which they are the heart and soul.

[claudiustg]

---Go join the 1 percenters in the constitution/libertarian party.---

Keep it up and it will be way more than any 1%. Recall the Whigs? Most folks don't.

[staytrue]

Let's just cancel the primary!

If you are a Hunter/Tancredo supporter, you need to hope that happens. Getting 1% usually does not help win elections.

[hellbender]

"Try 3 % which is the current combined polling of "true conservatives" Hunter, Tancredo and Brownback."

They are doing a lot better than that in polls of the people who actually will pick the nominee, like the straw polls at CPAC and in SC.

[staytrue]

to lose with a "true conservative", whoever that may be.

The "true conservatives" are a lot like "the player to be named later" in a baseball trade.

[claudiustg]

Just put your principles aside, shut up, and vote for our man. That's pretty much the long and short of it, with the Rudyites when they're not putting lipstick on their pig.

[staytrue]

The election is still over a year and a half away.

Most people feel the candidates will be selected after Feb 5 when Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia (which will nominate a candidate at a state nominating convention), Michigan, California, New Jersey,Illinois.New York, Texas have primaries.

[staytrue]

Usually those ahead this early never make it to the end.

Unlike previous years, this time the end comes very early, like Feb 5, 2008.

[nutmeg]

ping

[supercat]

The whole quote is "I would like to run on all the lines, the conservative line, the liberal line, I would like to run on the Democratic line if I could figure out how to do it"

What do you suppose he meant?

[supercat]

Try 3 % which is the current combined polling of "true conservatives" Hunter, Tancredo and Brownback.

Romney has a lot more than 3% already, and will get more in the coming year. True, he's not as conservative as many would like, but from what I can tell he's a lot better than Giuliani.

[ApplegateRanch]

If they hold the Gospel very dear, why would they prefer an Cathlolic-in-name-only, serial divorcer, pro-abortion, pro-gay candidate, over an anti-gay agenda, anti-abortion, conservative Mormon??

Are they really that religiously bigoted?

[Ol' Sparky]

And, most absurd thing is that "conservatives" are deluding themselves into thinking eight years of RINO is better than four years of Hillary.

History shows RINOs to be absolute disaster for conservatives from Christie Todd Whitman to Michael Bloomberg to Arnold Schwartenkennedy.

It's no wonder conservativism can't advance in this nation when so many "conservative" are dumb and deluded enough to support Republicans that are liberal on multiple issue and lukewarm on others.