Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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Smart move.
Why did you feel the need to post this newsflash to me?
Like 1860 was interesting.
Both parties splintering at the same time.
Very dangerous, like, blue-gray dangerous.
Rudy is - obviously - the man.
You are calling them as you see them. But I'll only vote for a candidate who supports most important conservative policies. Giuliani is not that candidate.
Rudy in New York is NOT Rudy in DC. In NY guns is one thing - at the national level, with the whole of the country at bear - something else intirely. He will NOT move against guns spontaneously at the very least, and he may well not oppose pro-gun moves.
THIS is a huge net gain compared to hillary KFC clinton...
None, in the first 100 days as POTUS, Rudy will confiscate all firearms and declare abortions mandatory for all females of child bearing age.
Yep, richardson would be trouble. Everybody is touting rudy vs hillary, but putting all your eggs in one theoretical basket is very dangerous.
Run a new york liberal gun grabbing republican up against a pro gun moderate dem who can talk conservative and it would be a disaster for the GOP.
Rudy beats Hillary... Hillary beats Rudy... Is there really any difference?
Wow. That video ("I would like to run on the Democratic line if I could figure out how to do it" -Rudy Giuliani) made me angrier at Rudy G. than I've been up to now. I could never vote for that guy. If he gets the GOP nod then I'll vote for a third party.
I can't stand Hillary but she's no worse than he, IMO. I know that he says he will appoint judges like Alito and Roberts but, I don't believe him.
What total BS. He has done no such thing, hairy. You questioned the credibility of a respected, longtime poster here - the only thing for you is to apologize for your ignorance.
---I honestly don't give a damn who our nominee is, he's got my vote.---
Good for you! Don't let anyone tell you that you've got standards!
If this is aimed at the dolts who are actually BUYING the PRO RINO-rudy propaganda, then, they probably don't know enough about history (they certainly seem to be oblivious to RINO-rudy's LIBERAL history as mayor of nyc) to understand the meaning of this bumper sticker.
The process will run its course and the members of the party will have their opportunity to select a standard-bearer.
Don't fear the system.
"talk conservative"
Worked in Colorado. We have Ritter now as Gov.
Post afrer post ...cap after cap...futile hour after hour.....Jeez Rudy's high poll numbers have you on the top of the FLOPSWEATERS.
I don't help Hillary. How's that for a standard?
Let's assume for a moment that this is actually true.
I will also assume that you are a reasonable, logical person.
If your statement is in fact true, would it not be reasonable to chose the one who will get us there more slowly?
If the choice is between sinking quickly or slowly, I would choose "slowly". Certainly better than going down too fast! (laughs)
Having said that, I don't believe that your statement _is_ true on its face. My opinion only.
- John
He participated in a parody drag-queen act, as have many of 100% heterosexual comedians. In Rudy's case, he did it for charity.
Why not attack Rudy on matters of substance, like the fact that he believes gun control should be a matter for a locality (i.e. New York City) to decide (for the rest of the country).
---I don't help Hillary. How's that for a standard?---
You're not doing much for conservatives or the Republican Party either.
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