Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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I want to be sure you understand what I sent you concerning gay people?
It is something that requires treatment.
As in they are mentally ill.
Nice writing and good points.
Well, ignore the presence of your fiance' at your own leisure (or peril) but if you omit facts, be assured to be called on it.
BULLSH*T
"Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” "
I think he ment to say "we do not agree on any thing".
The GOP electing Rudy the party candidate is like the Dems electing Cheney as their candidate.
Re: #111
You should be ashamed of yourself for making that joke.
"A Drink Any RINO Would Enjoy."
Hehe.
Based on nothing but reading your own hairy palms.
Watch yer mouth, noob. CBB is well respected here. You, otoh, got one foot on a banana peel.....
Jimmy Carter was a paragon of virtue.
If you think this is how we should pick leaders, I think you are out of your mind.
I haven't and would not. Now, on to something more important.
He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake."
Can you elaborate on the other four points?
In NH, the race is over eleven months before the primary.
Swift reply, madame Thatcher. Billybob has already admitted his mistake of inaccuracy.
"but what if the dem candidate isn't hillary?"
osama...err obama is a stealth candidate. Silky pony is a joke, right now. Richardson of New Mexico would be dangerous. He is good on NRA scorecards. In real life (pandering to the regular dims) , who knows.
RINO-rudy's not only PART of the "elite" class, he's part of the MOST disgusting liberal branch of it...
The NORTHEASTERN-CORRIDOR, BLUEST-of-BLUE, Police/Nanny-State branch.
RINO-rudy is SO superior, that, as mayor, he deemed it necessary to take away 2nd Amendment rights of law-abiding citizens in The Peoples Republic of nyc, even while he and his elite cronies had 24/7/365 armed security and access to all sorts of firearms and right to carry concealed.
RINO-rudy's definitely got the guts to GUT the 2nd Amendment, and push a whole new raft of liberal gun-grabbing law (reenact the so-called Assault Weapon and Hi-Cap Magazine ban, get his fellow liberal inner-city scumbag mayors to try an float more frivolous lawsuits against legitimate manufacturers of lawful fireams, roll back concealed carry rights, ban whole classes of "evil' - in his twisted liberal anti-gun mind - firearms by getting his Treasury Secretary to reclassify them under the NFA, etc.).
This RINO can NOT be trusted to be the Republican representative in the highest office in the land.
I say...
rudy for nyc Mayor! (they DESERVE him... again.).
Whoever is the next Republican nominee, with the exception of a stubborn few here we will all vote for him for over Hillary. I do NOT like McCain, but damn sure I'll be voting for him if he somehow makes it as our candidate. That's all this election is about, defeating Hillary and the left.
As someone pointed out elsewhere, we have to go through not one but TWO entire major league baseball seasons before we get to cast our one measly vote each .
All this arguing here, it doesn't matter who our candidate is -- talking Rudy here of course -- you have to use your one vote against the Clintons. Period.
I'm gonna keep preaching that it's not worth tearing each other up here over that one measly vote each. It's too bitter already. Oppose, yes; destroy, no.
I honestly don't give a damn who our nominee is, he's got my vote.
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