Posted on 02/09/2007 5:50:02 AM PST by GulfBreeze
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has led the field for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination in most polls of GOP voters. His popularity among the party’s mainly conservative base is founded on his image of standing tall and reassuring New Yorkers following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on their city, though some voters also know him for his tough-on-crime persona and efforts to rein in government spending.
But there are aspects of Giuliani’s record; his views, especially on volatile social issues; and his personal past that do not thrill conservative activists. In fact, some are inalterably opposed to him and vow to block his efforts to obtain the Republican nomination.
Though this potential downside has gotten some mention in the media, Giuliani has gone relatively unscathed by political opponents so far. But that is likely because he appeared to be genuinely uncertain about whether to plunge into a Republican nominating process that for decades has favored strongly conservative candidates.
But Giuliani moved closer to becoming an official contender for president this week — he filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission Feb. 5 — and it’s likely that those disinclined to his nomination will start probing his vulnerabilities before long.
The Giuliani campaign has shown, albeit unintentionally, that it at least won’t be caught unaware by any political attacks. A memo detailing Giuliani’s campaign strategy, which was apparently misplaced and leaked to the press, showed that his own campaign questioned whether his positions on social issues would be an insurmountable problem for the former mayor.
These include support for abortion rights, though he says he supports a ban on the procedure known as “partial birth” abortion as long as there is a provision to protect the life of the pregnant woman; general support of gay rights, though he says he is opposed to same-sex marriage; and gun control, also a red flag for many conservatives, but a stand Giuliani describes as fundamental to his successful efforts to sharply reduce his hometown’s crime rate.
The memo also measured the political baggage stemming from the fact that his spouse, Judith Nathan, is his third wife; his very public divorce from his second wife, TV newswoman and actress Donna Hanover, amid allegations that he already was romantically involved with Nathan; and his former business partnership with ex-New York City police commissioner Bernard Kerik, who pleaded guilty to charges of ethics violations last year.
So Giuliani — whose national stature stemmed largely from the label of “America’s Mayor” that was applied to him after 9/11 — nonetheless faces a significant challenge in winning over religious and other conservatives, who continue to be an essential segment of the electorate in the upcoming Republican primaries and caucuses.
Giuliani doesn’t need every conservative to support his bid, “but he can’t win without some level of support from the party base,” said Dan Schnur, a veteran California Republican political insider who in 2000 was national communications director for Arizona Sen. John McCain’s run for the Republican presidential nomination.
McCain, who according to polls and pundits is one of the other leading candidates for the 2008 nomination, is more conservative on social issues than Giuliani. But he also has a reputation for challenging Republican Party orthodoxy that turns off some conservatives, some of whom haven’t forgiven him yet for challenging George W. Bush’s status as front-runner in the 2000 contest.
Some conservative groups, publications and blogs have already vocalized their apprehension or outright rejection of Giuliani.
Mike Mears, executive director for the conservative Concerned Women for America’s political action committee, listed “high moral character” as the first trait on his list of ideal presidential candidate qualities. Though Mears said the group, with its stated mission to “protect and promote Biblical values,” has yet to completely evaluate the candidates, he did say that Giuliani’s support for abortion rights and gay rights are “opposite” to the beliefs of members of the Concerned Women for America.
Mears stressed that the group is not writing off Giuliani, stating that there is “always room for someone to change.” But he added that the group would require evidence of a change in order to feel comfortable about any candidate with a moderate record on social issues. Mears said the organization will look for ways to work with the eventual party nominee as well as the next president.
Other organizations express less flexibility. “There are some who say, ‘Well, all we need from Giuliani, for instance, is a promise that he’ll put in a judge that will be a good constitutionalist,’ ” said Connie Mackey, senior vice president of Action, the legislative arm of the Family Research Council (FRC). “And we would disagree with that.”
The group describes its purpose is to “educate the general public and cultural leaders about traditional American values and to promote the philosophy of the Founding Fathers concerning the nature of ordered liberty.”
Like Mears, Mackey listed the “sanctity of life” and the preservation of marriage as two major issues on which the group will judge a candidate.
“One’s voting record, one’s statements on issues that are of concern that affect the culture are very important to organizations like the FRC,” said Mackey, who added that there’s still a “long way to go” in the campaign.
Giuliani’s campaign aides contend that rank-and-file conservatives view the candidate much more generously than do some of the activist groups. In a memo authored by strategy director Brent Seaborn and released to the public last week, the campaign pointed to polling numbers they say show Giuliani with “strong approval among white evangelical Christians [76 percent] and self-described conservative Republicans [82 percent].”
The Giuliani campaign announced Thursday that Republican Rep. Candice S. Miller of Michigan’s 10th District endorsed Giuliani and will speak in his favor this weekend at her state’s Republican Party convention in Grand Rapids.
Miller served as chairwoman of President Bush’s 2004 campaign in Michigan and has a mostly conservative voting record that includes voting against federal funding for stem cell research, supporting a proposed amendment to the Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage and supporting a ban on partial-birth abortion.”
Giuliani’s campaign also argues that one or two issues will not define the contenders. “Republican primary voters will choose their candidate based on a variety of factors and they will ultimately judge the candidate as a whole,” said Giuliani spokeswoman Katie Levinson. “Rudy enjoys strong support across the country within the Republican Party from people who share his views on a variety of issues and appreciate his strong leadership and his record of result.”
Several polls on the Republican nominating contest have shown Giuliani and McCain joined in the top tier of candidates by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who espouses socially conservative views but recently has had to explain the more moderate positions he took in his political debut — an unsuccessful 1994 challenge to Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy.
Schnur said this lineup is ideal for Giuliani. “None of the top-tier Republican candidates are individuals with whom social conservatives are completely comfortable,” said Schnur. “Giuliani doesn’t have to convince these voters to trust him completely, he just has to convince them to trust him more than they trust John McCain or Mitt Romney.”
But for conservative voters who can’t reconcile themselves to any of these three, there are plenty of amenable options in the crowded Republican field. Among those appealing directly to voters on the GOP right are Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, California Rep. Duncan Hunter and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.
For now, said Schnur, Giuliani’s celebrity status as the mayor who lead New York City through the post-9/11 recovery efforts guarantees him prominent media coverage and more visibility than the lower-tier candidates.
Schnur added that the presence of one additional candid thing scares Republican primary voters more than the prospect of President Hillary [Rodham] Clinton,” said Schnur. “All three of the top-tier [Republican] candidates can use that fear as a way to convince more conservative voters that they’re palatable because they can beat her.”
RUDY IS JUST THE MAN FOR THE JOB!!
Liberal Republicans are more dangerous than liberal democrats, because liberal Republicans BLUR the distinction between conservatism and liberalism, making liberalism more acceptable.
I will never vote for Guiliani.
I know Ray,
I wasn't hammering you just building on the thoughts...
You do make some damn good points....
109th U.S. Congress (2005-2006)
H.R. 776 [109th]: Sanctity of Life Act of 2005
HR 776 IH
109th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 776
To provide that human life shall be deemed to exist from conception.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
February 10, 2005
Mr. RON PAUL (for himself, Mr. GARRETT of New Jersey, and Mr. BARTLETT of Maryland) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on the Judiciary
Sounds like a winner to me.
Then again, it could be a huge benefit to the GOP and conservatives because, with Giuliani at the top of the ticket, states like Illinois, California, New Jersey, Delaware, Michigan, Connecticut, Washington and Maine (an EV vote rich bloc of late written off rather early) will be in play at the presidential level and give a lift to GOP candidates for the House and Senate.... without appreiciable damage to the GOP stronghold in the South.
Seems to me lots of posters are tone deaf to political reality.
Democrats win because they have unions, DBM and other giveaway recipients organized to "get out the vote" for them. These people have a network that goes back to the New Deal. When I lived in Chicago there were a line of buses stretched from the housing projects to the gold coast waiting to take people to the polling places. I never (over 44 years) saw a Republican "get out the vote" so well orchestrated.
I did notice, starting in 2004, that a lot of Conservatives were going house to house to "get out" Republican votes. I also noticed that these people did not seem to be very much centrally organized but were guided by different social principals...people who lived in the community. I must add that these people were mostly social conservatives rather than fiscal conservatives.
In Ohio (I don't live in Ohio) IIRC, 16% of black, in 2004, came out to vote republican because of a social issue that was on the ballot.
If we have a candidate that does not motivate the base can we get that level of "grass root" get out the vote? I don't know.
But the American citizen will elect the person that Wall Street and Newsweek chooses for them.
Guiliani would set the conservative movement back to pre-Reagan and continue the meltdown of the GOP.
Yes a lot of people will do the same, and that's a mistake.
Gulliani, as bad as he may be, is better than Hillary!, and would mean that things wouldn't be entirely over the brink when he leaves office.
I'm going to vote the Repub nomiee, whoever that is, but DAMN, I wish we had someone I could be excited about.
I too will never vote for a liberal rino like Rudy.
Rudy has the name recognition, the money, the leadership, the fiscal conservatism, the national security conservatism, and yes, he's socially conservative on some issues (welfare reform, speaking out against out-of-wedlock births & fatherlessness, poverty, quality of life issues, etc).
I am pro-life, don't think that homosexuals deserve special rights, & a proud gun owner. But please hear me out on this. The current Congressmen running for President did absolutely nothing about existing gun control laws. Nothing about abortion either. So how can you tell me that they're socially conservative when none of them introduced legislation (other than Hunter's pro-life bill just recently) or tried to resolve these social issues before the Supreme Court?
National security and economic issues are very important to most people. Rudy will likely address our burgeoning entitlement programs; what did Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback, etc. do to stop out-of-control entitlement spending and spending on other federal programs? You resolve these, you reduce the size of government and reform the tax system, the social issues will take care of themselves, and that's Rudy's strategy in a nutshell.
Where was your anger at when big cities were enacting gun bans and Congress was writing a bunch of gun control laws? Rudy enforced the existing gun control laws, the ones that spineless Republicans in Congress didn't fight against and/or helped create.
pro-abortion
A President has very little impact on abortion. Rudy will at least support the judges who'll someday overturn Roe vs Wade, and he'll take the taxpayer monies out of abortion. You're not going to get that out of President Hillary.
pro-pervert
Unless Rudy was caught having sex with a bunch of guys in a bathhouse, this is irrelevant to me.
pro-tax-and-spend
Obviously, you're unfamiliar with Rudy's record. Rudy cut 23 different taxes and held the line on spending. Welfare rolls decreased and he privatized many NYC's assets.
How can we when our candidate is totally being trashed by social-issue conservatives?
I agree with letting the primaries play out, but Rudy is being trashed a year before the primaries even begin. If you guys are so confident that your social-issue conservative is going to win, then why waste your time on Rudy?
Dear KDD,
"We need a radical departure from the existing status quo.
"The election of Dr. Ron Paul would be a revolutionary act.
"It would shake up the smug establishment that feeds at the public trough in Washington. It would delineate differences.
But the American citizen will elect the person that Wall Street and Newsweek chooses for them."
If Rep. Paul gets the Republican nomination, I assure you that I will vote for him in the general election. But it sounds like that you're somewhat pessimistic about the possibility.
I don't disagree.
sitetest
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.