Posted on 12/22/2006 8:06:16 PM PST by B-Chan
Here's how it happens: America stupidly and immorally withdraws from the War on Terror, withdrawing prematurely from Iraq and leaving it in chaos. Emboldened, either Muslims unite against the West (unlikely) or collapse in a huge war between Shiites and Sunnis (already beginning). It almost doesn't matter, because in the process the oil will stop flowing.
And when the oil stops flowing, Europe and Japan and Taiwan and Singapore and South Korea all crash economically; Europe then has to face the demands of its West-hating Muslim "minority" without money and without the ruthlessness or will to survive that would allow them to counter the threat. The result is accommodation or surrender to Islam. The numbers don't lie -- it is not just possible, it is likely.
America doesn't crash right away, mind you. But we still have a major depression, because we have nowhere to sell our goods. And depending on what our desperate enemies do, it's a matter of time before we crash as well.
Why? Because we're that Syrian village. Except that what we make is food -- enough to feed half the world.
What we don't make for ourselves anymore is ... everything else. We don't produce steel. We don't make most of our own computer equipment. We have exported our textile industry.
Some of these industries could recover. But they would be producing only for domestic consumption. We'd have nowhere to sell anything except to ourselves. That's when we find out just how much of our new "service" economy is smoke and mirrors, dependent entirely on the surpluses generated by the global system of trade...
(Excerpt) Read more at ornery.org ...
A long read, but very much worth the trouble of reading the whole thing, slowly and carefully.
Also, it looks as if the two books he cites are must reads. I have already bought and read Mark Steyn's book, and it looks as if I must have a look at that other book by Bryan Ward-Perkins, "The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization."
I haven't read Steyn's book yet, but the author of this article doesn't factor in the growing Muslim population in our own country, as well as in Mexico and Central and South America.
"That's when we find out just how much of our new "service" economy is smoke and mirrors, dependent entirely on the surpluses generated by the global system of trade..."
I will click the link and read the rest. Economy that isn't founded on real goods that people really need is indeed smoke and mirrors that will one day reveal its insubstantiality. And it likely won't be a pretty sight.
Anyway, thanks for posting - I'll read the rest now.
Interesting perspective this guy has.
There, read it all. Interesting, lively, and convincing.
Malthus simply linked decline to over-population...this guy's analysis is much more nuanced and detailed that than that.
Basically he argues that when safe trade collapsed in Rome, it collapsed as civilization. Then he builds a plausible way of how our trade could collapse, over time,...and what a terrible pickle we'd be in if it did.
What is a "civilization can" ??
This article is mostly good, but he tars it with the following...
---We have no vast hordes of barbarians waiting to invade and take over. (Quiet, you who think Mexicans are the barbarian invasion. They're just another wave of immigrants.)---
If he wants to dispute the idea that Mexican immigrants are analogous to the Germanic hordes that brought down Rome, then fine. He's got a good case to make there. But to dismiss conerns over immigration by saying that Mexicans are 'just another wave of immigrants' is just absurd. Its ridiculous because the current influx is in fact not just like other waves we experienced in the past. Let us count the ways;
1. The sheer size of the Mexican influx dwarfs that from any previous single source.
2. Past waves from Europe eventually came to an end, either through external factors in Europe, or from restrictive legislation passed by our Congress. Though public opinion is favorable to reducing the current mass wave of immigration, a look at those currently in power reveals that no such reduction is in sight. So barring new reductionist legislation, or some other event in the US or Mexico that would reduce immigration, there is no end in sight to the influx from Mexico.
3. Past immigrants faced cultural and political breaks from their homeland that Mexicans today do not. Geography obviously plays a big part in this, and so does technology. When combined with the 40+ yrs of low-moderate immigration (that resulted from the above-mentioned legislation which passed in the early 1920s), these and other factors allowed for all of the Germans, Irish, Italians, etc to be absorbed.
Today, virtually everything is different for Mexicans. For one thing, our elites have given us a diversity-obsessed, multicultural-worshipping society that is anti-assimilation. And of course, Mexico is right next door, and has a govt that is actively and openly trying to use Mexican Americans as a voting block within the US to advance Mexico's interests.
So my only gripe with Card's essay here is that he shouldn't throw out such mindless tripe about such a complicated issue as immigration. The manner in which he does it -- 'Quite, you who...' -- is insulting, as it suggests he holds elitist, WSJournal-style views on the subject. All in all, it taints an otherwise excellent essay.
You make a number of excellent points. The Mexican "immigration" differs from previous immigrations in two ways.
First is sheer size.
Second is that rather than wanting to become Americans, many want to continue living as Mexicans while enjoying the benefits the U.S. provides.
Unfortunately, George Bush and many other leaders are willing to sacrifice the nation's future for the financial benefit of friends and contributors.
It's not as bad as the Muslim invasion that is taking place in Europe, but will still have a very negative effect on our culture.
Marking.
btt
Sorry, B-Chan, but the premise is flawed and dead wrong. America has barely begun the War on Terror.
Merry Christmas.................FRegards
You should ignore all that. Your fears are overblown, racist, and bigoted. And insensitive. I'm offended. I demand an apology. And I want your apology plastered all over the mediot airwaves for at least two weeks. Then I might be satisfied, if you give me two million dollars in damages.
bump for later
:)
"Our enemies and most of our 'allies' and many of our own citizens are working as hard as possible to bring the whole thing crashing down, though that is not at all what they intend."I'm not so sure about that, Ors. It might be exactly what they intend.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.