[GodGunsGuts]

I'd say it's safe to say that the housing bust is officially a national phenomenon.

[goldstategop]

The sky is falling! Life is so good in this country, for most of us, we never have to worry about the hardships endured by previous generations. Our comfort and lassitude has made us a nation of Nervous Nellies.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

[babygene]

Wow! 1.2%... The sky is falling. The stock market goes up and down more than that in a day.

[Moonman62]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1741656/posts

[montag813]

Why wont prices in NYC fall? Wall St. money I suppose. It is just bizarre.

[TheLion]

Interesting that they choose words like "plummet" instead of fall or drop off. Almost like someone has an agenda.

[PghBaldy]

down by 12.7 percent from the same period a year ago that's a big drop. Still overpriced in most places, IMO. Another gift from the recent Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. I think this (aliong with high prices for just about everything) had something to do with the overall blah feeling many voters had. Everyone is charging me more in the last year or so. Fees, surcharges. My rent wen up for the first time in a long time (along with new fees that in 20 years I have never had to pay in any rental), thanks to the housing slump.

[Don W]

In another sign of moderating economic growth, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last month at 5.25 percent for the third straight session. The Fed had raised interest rates 17 times beginning in June 2004 to stave off inflation, before halting its campaign of credit-tightening in August.

That's kinda funny: I can remember the Fed using 18% as a hedge against inflation.

Our SMALL family business was selling $50K per month in new eqpt, plus the service side, and the only interested (pun intended) entity making any money was the bank. It forced our closing.

I think it rather telling that a minor slowdown in sales is considered a near depression. The Idiots who wrote and edited this article really NEED a lesson in basic economics, but what do I know?

[Brad from Tennessee]

I'm no economist but I would think the dynamic of a boom is that it begins with demand and ends when the demand has been met. People, even in the richest country can't keep buying new homes indefinitely. Whatever inventory is left over will be sold at a discount or a loss. Then in a few years it will begin to pick up again.

[Proud_USA_Republican]

Watch for the markets like Seattle, where prices have basically flatlined since the begining of May for median and below median homes after massive gains the past couple years. Realtors have labeled it one of the cities that will never see major price corrections. Seattle is scheduled to have some massive condo tower projects coming on the market in 2007. Thousands of units in downtown Seattle and downtown Bellevue. There was lots of pre-sale action in the begining of this year with these projects. Lots of speculators looking for a quick flip once construction was complete. Now that prices have flatlined for this long, wonder how many flippers are starting to sweat.

http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Seattle&pct=50&g=m

http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Seattle&pct=25&g=m

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

A decent summary of current trends, whether you agree with the conclusions or not.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts_va_print.aspx?EditionID=423
The Coming Collapse in Housing
by John Mauldin
11/17/2006

Introduction

What Will Collapse Housing Prices?

The Grand Disconnect

89 Booming Cities

Where's The Unemployment From Housing?

Two Price-Break Triggers

The Fed to the Rescue?

Some Observations on The Big Easy

Disclaimer

Introduction

This week I am in New Orleans at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and quite frankly with so many good friends that I have given myself permission to not write a letter this week. But you will be getting an even better writer than me for this week's letter.

I arranged for good friend Gary Shilling to condense his 40 page letter on the housing market for you. While this letter will print long (for those of you who print the letter out), it is mostly charts, which Gary excels in. Gary argues that housing prices are not in for just a small decline but a material drop. I have argued that it is housing that will be one of the main causes of the next recession sometime next year. So without adding too much more copy, let's jump right into Gary's analysis. If you like this type of work, you can subscribe at http://www.agaryshilling.com/insight.html.

[DakotaRed]

What? Democrats getting control hasn't caused manna to fall from heaven yet?

[Herakles]

Oh crap, it looks like those professors at Penn State in State College Pennsylvania are only going to get a 15% appreciation in their houses instead of 20% this year.

It also means that most real estate agents in the area will have to settle for making a $150,000 instead of $175,000.

Oh, will the hard times never end for these poor people!

[Caipirabob]

The situation in Florida is particularly unique. We have several factors impacting reality in Florida at the moment:

1) Skyrocketing insurance premiums with no end to increases in sight.

2) Incredible tax assessments due to the previous boom. Those with Homestead Exemption are insulated, but those with winter homes and businesses are getting creamed.

3) Realty speculation: Doooooomed! DOOOOMED! Unless you're in the market for foreclosures. Many, many "Me too'ers" are going to get creamed. Especially those who overextended, overpaid and financed via questionable mortgage programs.

4) Dump of surplus into a flooded market. Right now people are either A) Fine with no problem B) Speculators trying to save their hides C) Developers trying to move surplus inventory D) Formerly long term residents who have been priced out of their homes by insurance E) Snowbirds who refuse to be strangled financially by cutthroat taxes levied on those without homestead exemption and the double whammy of insurance premiums.

Mixed bag down here. Florida is a questionable destination until we settle affairs over insurance and taxes. Businesses are facing up to a 600% increase in insurance premiums. Residents face 200% increases. My own policy will double 3 times in 3 years. It's a hostile environment for those looking for a stable financial sitiation. The state is current FUBAR'd in the best of the third world tradition.

[capitalist229]

Why is the housing bubble getting so much attention ?

The credit bubble is a much bigger concern for the economy.

Since the Fed prefers inflation over deflation we just keep creating more and more risky debt and lurch from one asset bubble to the next.

If they're not careful the bottom will fall out of the reserve dollar and the party will be so over.

BUMP

[BlackbirdSST]

Not to worry, the ILLEGAL's will bail US out. Blackbird.

[photodawg]

The Conference Board's labor economist, Ken Goldstein, said the October index suggests "the economy is unlikely either to reheat or to get significantly cooler."

"Instead, the kind of slow growth now being experienced could continue right through the winter and into the spring," Goldstein said.

''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

Is that Goldstein or Goldilocks? When housing prices dips 10% in a month and housing starts drop precipitously, how does that add up to slow growth into the spring? Or maybe the next sentence reads, "When the bottom falls out."

[SuziQ]

The speculators may have been scared away, but folks will always need houses to live in. Sales may be slow, and folks' houses may show some depreciation from what they THOUGHT they'd sell for, but they're still selling.