Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONS

Center for Politics ^ | 11/2/06 | Larry Sabato

[finnman69]

Let's see how accurate Sabato is. Look for a last second hedge to cover his ass.

His bottom line prediction: THE SENATE: Democrats + 6 = 51D, 49R THE HOUSE: Democrats + 27 = 230D, 205R THE GOVERNORSHIPS: Democrats + 7 = 29D, 21R

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

Okay, these slimy polls, MSM and doom sayers convinced me to stay home November 7, 2006.

I voted early and for all Republicans.

[frogjerk]

How accurate was Sabato in 2004?

[advertising guy]

Sabado was quoted all day in '04 about the dems winning...answer your question ?.....lol

[Brad from Tennessee]

". . . We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era . . ."

This guy is supposed to be a professor and a political expert and he doesn't know what happened in his field of expertise prior to 1941. And he's too lazy to look it up.

[massgopguy]

Leiberman crosses the aisle = 50-50, Cheney breaks the tie.

[WalterSkinner]

..wait till the numbers flow in from the last 72 hrs...

Pollsters and pundits never learn...

[jsmaineconservative]

Based on early voting, and gop intesity this year, I think Allen, Burns, Talent, Corker, Steele, Dewine, Kean, Chaffee have a good chance of winning. I'm not as brave as some, so I'm only going say the republicans keep 54 seats in the Senate.
As for the House at worst the GOP loses 12 seats. With the Kerry debacle maybe they hold on to Delay's and Foleys seats as well for 222.

[finnman69]

Sabato was failry accurate in 2004. He claims he is very accurate.

His final was a 269-269 electoral tie and he got Florida and Wisconsin both wrong going for Kerry.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2004110901

We're proud of our record at the Crystal Ball, having forecast 525 of 530 contests correctly--a 99 percent accuracy rating. We missed one Senate race, one House race, one governor's race, and two states in the Electoral College, and like all political analysts reading the election returns, we are kicking ourselves for getting those wrong! But it was our best year ever, and we are thrilled.

[RightWhale]

Did they take the squirrel attack on the Post Office employee into account?

[Quilla]

Sabato - partisan hack. Please see:

Professor (Larry Sabato) Says Senator Used Racial Slur

and

Larry Sabato Recants, Didn't Hear Allen

[mak5]

But increasingly it looks like they will win five (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, and Rhode Island, in that order, and at least one of Missouri, Virginia, or Tennessee).

Sorry, Larry, they may win Rhode Island and one of Ohio and Pennsylvania. They will win none of Missouri, Virginia, or Tennessee. That would be Dems +2. Add in the probable GOP win in MD and possible win in New Jersey and that's a wash.

[SkyPilot]

How accurate was Sabato in 2004?

Read for yourself from his own site:

Kerry Will Beat George Bush (2004)

The Final Predictions
Larry J. Sabato
Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party's get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the Democrats' GOTV efforts. But if the Democrats are even half-right about the potential of their GOTV in producing additional new voters, then Kerry will win, perhaps more comfortably than anyone now suspects.

[Amalie]

"Spppfffttt...(cough, cough)"

Here, man, smoke a little more of this one. It's far out!!!....

[frogjerk]

When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s.

W. Misunderestimated again!

[icwhatudo]

Maryland - Leans Dem - Ben Cardin (D) will defeat Michael Steele (R). Though Steele has had a comparatively good month, we just don't buy the argument that he is within striking distance of the more ideologically in-step (if boring) Cardin.

Someone missed todays poll where he cut Cardin lead in half. Now down only 6pts.

[finnman69]

Even Sabato correctly comments on how Dems shoot themsleves in the foot. And a Kerry bitch slap!

The Democrats will have to TRY to lose this election. Yes, they've had a lot of experience in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sen. John Kerry is doing his best to provide two of those election years in a row (Brilliant remark, John, absolutely brilliant, proving why you lost in '04 and why you're not going to be the Democratic nominee again in '08).

[TNCMAXQ]

He asks when is the last time the president's party failed to capture a single seat from the other party? How about 1994?? As I recall not one single GOP Senate or House seat, or governorship, flipped to the Dems in that year.

We can only hope he and most of the other experts are wrong but when even analysts on the right say the GOP will probably lose control of one or both houses, then the outlook is not good. It will take a little miracle to gain a victory.

[andy58-in-nh]

Sabato definitely overestimated the Kerry vote for President in '04 (had Florida leaning for Kerry, for example - Bush won by a significant amount). On the House, he was dead-on though (called 232R-203D which was exactly right), and had the Senate as 53R-46D, which was off by 1R - with one Independent.

I think what he is missing this year is the same thing that all pollsters are missing: their methods no longer provide reliable results, as vast swaths of Republican voters are not responsive to polling (or included in it), and yet turn out in far greater numbers than ever before on Election Day. We'll see.

[jsmaineconservative]

I really don't understand how democrats can predict victory at this point. Our voter intensity is greater than theirs, early voting results clearly point this out. All the gop get out to vote efforts from ohio to missiouri are significantly ahead of 2004's pace. If the left is going to hang their hats on biased, left-leaning polls, okay. They are just fooling themselves.