Posted on 11/01/2006 6:50:13 PM PST by NYC Republican
I haven't seen this type of thing posted yet, so... here goes... hopefully the mods will be cool with it.
I'd like to have a challenge, whoever predicts the closest to the actual results gets a $500 prize- cash, from yours truly.
Here's how it works... The first 200 posters (one per person) that submit their predictions are in the contest.
You have to make a prediction on the Senate balance of power (the Ind would be in the D column), and as a tie breaker, you would make a prediction on each of the following races, including percentages for each candidate.
PA - Santorum (R-I) vs. Casey (D)
TN - Corker (R) vs. Ford (D) - open seat
MT - Burns (R-I) vs. Tester (D)
VA - Allen (R-I) vs. Webb (D)
RI - Chaffee (R-I) vs. Whitehouse (D)
MO - Talent (R-I) vs. McCaskill (D)
NJ - Kean (R) vs. Menendez (D)
Here are the rules:
- First, the best score on the Senate's balance of power.
- Tie-breaker is whomever gets the most Senate races correct.
- Next tie-breaker is overall point spread - cumulative, in all races (can you tell I'm a football fan?). I'll do all of the stats...
- First 200 predictions will be tallied.
- Must be in by Sunday night.
- Winner gets $500.
- If the GOP maintains both houses, then I'll give an additional $300 to the 2nd place winner and $200 to the 3rd place finisher... I'll be THAT happyh
Please try to keep it in the same format, makes my job easier.
Any questions?
Oops, I forgot Chafee and Whitehouse (well, it's a forgetable race afterall!)
Chaffee 46 Whitehouse 51
Lynn Cheney for President in 2008 with J.C. Watts as her running mater!
Rep 54 Dem 45 Ind 1
PA - Santorum 49 vs. Casey 51
TN - Corker 56 vs. Ford 43 - open seat
MT - Burns 51 vs. Tester 49
VA - Allen 52 vs. Webb 48
RI - Chaffee 48 vs. Whitehouse 51
MO - Talent 51 vs. McCaskill 48
NJ - Kean 45 vs. Menendez 55
Senate - R 52 D 48
Santorum 46 Casey 53
Corker 54 Ford 44
Burns 49 Tester 50
Allen 54 Webb 44
Chaffee 46 Whitehouse 53
Talent 53 McCaskill 46
Kean 48 Menendez 51
Senate - Rep 51 Dem 47
Santorum 42 Casey 58
Corker 49 Ford 51
Burns 45 Tester 55
Allen 49 Webb 51
Chaffee 47 Whitehouse 48
Talent 49 McCaskill 51
Kean 50 Menendez 47
My 2 cents...
Oops. Forgot two Independents. 51-49 Republicans.
my honest predictions (no flames, this is based on the most up to date polling I have seen)
my prediction is 50-50 for the Senate, based on what I have seen, unless Mike Steele gains enough momentum between now and Tuesday, then it will be 51-49
PA - Santorum (R-I) vs. Casey (D) (Casey wins 56 to 43)
TN - Corker (R) vs. Ford (D) - open seat (Corker wins 51 to 48)
MT - Burns (R-I) vs. Tester (D) (Tester wins 51-49)
VA - Allen (R-I) vs. Webb (D) (webb wins 50-49)
RI - Chaffee (R-I) vs. Whitehouse (D)(Whitehouse 57-43)
MO - Talent (R-I) vs. McCaskill (D)(Talent wins a 50-50---this one is too close to call really. probably won't know on election night)
NJ - Kean (R) vs. Menendez (D) (Menendez wins 53-46)
Senate - R 49 D 51
Santorum 44 Casey 56
Corker 52 Ford 46
Burns 48 Tester 51
Allen 47 Webb 51
Chafee 44 Whitehouse 56
Talent 49 McCaskill 50
Kean 45 Menendez 52
I picked Burns to lose (hope I'm wrong, he's a great Senator), and Kean to win, both by a narrow margin of 1% or less.
The formerly conservative Montana has lost its collective mind and has been electing DUmmies left and right lately. I hope it's not having Vermont syndrome. The Dems have managed to villify Burns.
NJ was a tougher call, seeing as no Republican has won a Senate seat there in about 30 years (We have won Toreicelli's seat if not for the last minute candidate swap-a-roo stunt). However, appointed RAT Senator Mernendez is SO bad and the name "Tom Kean" is so strong in NJ (it would be like having the name "Ronald Reagan" on the ballot in a conservative state), I think we can just squeek through in this race. Take away the mob rigging elections and Dem vote fraud, and Kean would probably win by 56%
Oop's, I Forgot,
Senate Balance (R)59 (D)41..
Should be interesting.
I think that Steele, DeWine and Bouchard need to go on the list too.
**Santorum 50.2 Casey 49.8 **
I agree that Santorum will win.
Ping to some potential contest participants.
While I'm at it, I'll predict a few more races, using the same format, though not part of the actual contest.
OH: DeWine 43 Brown 56
MD: Steele 45 Cardin 54
MI: Bouchard 44 Stabenow 55
AZ: Kyl 52 Pederson 47
MN: Kennedy 41 Klobuchar 57
WA: McGavick 46 Cantwell 52
NE: Ricketts 44 Nelson 56
NV: Ensign 54 Carter 45
CT: Lieberman 44 Lamont 42
I'm just posting these because it'll be cool to see how close I can get!
**McGavick 50 Cantwell 48**
I would love to see Maria Cantwell lose this!
You might want to rethink those numbers unless you geniunely think Lieberman will be defeated in CT (personally I wouldn't mind Al's buddy biting the bullet, but too many "conservatives" are siding with Loserman because he voted the "right way" on the war)
OH: DeWine 46 Brown 53
MD: Steele 50 Cardin 49
MI: Bouchard 46 Stabenow 53
AZ: Kyl 54 Pederson 45
MN: Kennedy 41 Klobuchar 57
WA: McGavick 44 Cantwell 54
NE: Ricketts 44 Nelson 56
NV: Ensign 54 Carter 45
CT: Lieberman 49 Lamont 42
PA - Santorum 51 vs. Casey 49
Santorum 46 Casey 54
Corker 52 Ford 46
Burns 50 Tester 49
Allen 48 Webb 50
Chafee 46 Whitehouse 54
Talent 49 McCaskill 50
Kean 47 Menendez 50
It would be an interesting trick for Santorum to both win and lose. :)
I take it the one with Santorum losing is your actual prediction?
That's interesting how you have Cardin and Tester going down but McCaskill and Webb getting in.
By my count you have a GOP net loss of four (assuming that indeed you mean to have Santorum losing) leaving the Senate 51R to 49D (counting Lieberman and Sanders as Dems, of course).
Oh man,
You just had to use colors didn't you. Darn You!!
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