Posted on 11/01/2006 6:50:13 PM PST by NYC Republican
I haven't seen this type of thing posted yet, so... here goes... hopefully the mods will be cool with it.
I'd like to have a challenge, whoever predicts the closest to the actual results gets a $500 prize- cash, from yours truly.
Here's how it works... The first 200 posters (one per person) that submit their predictions are in the contest.
You have to make a prediction on the Senate balance of power (the Ind would be in the D column), and as a tie breaker, you would make a prediction on each of the following races, including percentages for each candidate.
PA - Santorum (R-I) vs. Casey (D)
TN - Corker (R) vs. Ford (D) - open seat
MT - Burns (R-I) vs. Tester (D)
VA - Allen (R-I) vs. Webb (D)
RI - Chaffee (R-I) vs. Whitehouse (D)
MO - Talent (R-I) vs. McCaskill (D)
NJ - Kean (R) vs. Menendez (D)
Here are the rules:
- First, the best score on the Senate's balance of power.
- Tie-breaker is whomever gets the most Senate races correct.
- Next tie-breaker is overall point spread - cumulative, in all races (can you tell I'm a football fan?). I'll do all of the stats...
- First 200 predictions will be tallied.
- Must be in by Sunday night.
- Winner gets $500.
- If the GOP maintains both houses, then I'll give an additional $300 to the 2nd place winner and $200 to the 3rd place finisher... I'll be THAT happyh
Please try to keep it in the same format, makes my job easier.
Any questions?
PA - Santorum (R-I)47% vs. Casey (D) 51%
TN - Corker (R) 53% vs. Ford (D) 47%
MT - Burns (R-I) 49% vs. Tester (D) 51%
VA - Allen (R-I) 51% vs. Webb (D) 48%
RI - Chaffee (R-I) 47% vs. Whitehouse (D) 53%
MO - Talent (R-I)50% vs. McCaskill (D) 49%
NJ - Kean (R) 49% vs. Menendez (D) 49%
I'm going to guess the balance of power is 52-48.
You forgot the Chaffee race
Santorum 46 Casey 53
Corker 51 Ford 47
Burns 48 Tester 51
Allen 50 Webb 49
Chaffee 47 Whitehouse 52
Talent 50 McCaskill 48
Kean 45 Menendez 54
If I win, you can donate my $500 to FreeRepublic.
===
Santorum 48 Casey 46
Corker 49 Ford 47
Burns 47 Tester 49
Allen 49 Webb 45
Chaffee 45 Whitehouse 49
Talent 48 McCaskill 45
Kean 47 Menendez 46
Tie breaker, Bouchard upsets Stabenow.
Note: No senator will get over 50%.
Cool.
I never saw a reward offer out here b/4 that I recall.
I have no idea on these races frankly because I never heard of most of the people involved.
In a few months I anticipate my schedule slowing down, and then I can pay more attention to the important stuff.
Meanwhile, I spend all of my free time just trying to almost keep up here.
Heck, I did not even know it was daylite savings time until the next day.
I figured McGavick would win the first two counts, but that the ballots found in various closets would put Cantwell over the top.
You need to provide your final tally (balance of power)
This is going to be tough, but here is my prediction:
R - 53 D - 47
Santorum 46 Casey 54
Corker 51 Ford 49
Burns 51 Tester 49
Allen 52 Webb 48
Chaffee 46 Whitehouse 54
Talent 53 McCaskill 47
Kean 47 Menendez 53
Senate - R 56 D 44
Santorum 50.2 Casey 49.8
Corker 55 Ford 45
Burns 52 Tester 48
Allen 55 Webb 45
Chaffee 46 Whitehouse 54
Talent 53 McCaskill 47
Kean 50 Menendez 49
You forgot to say how the new Senate would look (e.g. R - 56, D - 44)
R-55 D/I-45
Santorum 50 Casey 49
Corker 52 Ford 47
Burns 51 Tester 48
Webb 51 Allen 48
Chafee 53 Whitehouse 46
Talent 51 McCaskill 47
Menendez 55 Kean, Jr. 44
Two upsets as a bonus for the good guys:
McGavick 50 Cantwell 48
Steele 52 Cardin 47
Senate - R-52, D-48, I-2,
Casey 54% Santorum 46%
Corker 51% Ford 48%
Tester 49.7% Burns 49.3%
Allen 52% Webb 47%
Whitehouse 55% Chaffee 45%
Talent 51% McCaskill 48%
Kean 50.2% Menendez 49.8%
You didn't have us vote on the Maryland race between Stelle and Cardin, which I think will be very close and hard to determine in advance (whew, thanks for the break)
I think we keep the house by 2 seats.
Check the latest poll for Santorum. If you can explain to me how he has a 46% approval rating but gets 38% of the vote, I'd appreciate it.
Are you going to make predictions on the 7 races, and the overall makeup?
Senate Good Guys 54, Evil Wussies 46
PA - Santorum 51, Casey 48
TN - Corker 54, Ford 45
MT - Burns 50, Tester 49
VA - Allen 50, Webb 49
RI - Chaffee 47, Whitehouse 52
MO - Talent 53, McCaskill 46
NJ - Kean 49, Menendez 50
Send payment to Fresno.
Guess he didn't know her heinous was going to come out against Kerry!
I think these races are not going to be as close as the pundits thought.
Senate: R 50 D 50
Santorum 46 Casey 53
Corker 51 Ford 49
Burns 47 Tester 53
Allen 48 Webb 51
Chaffee 47 Whitehouse 53
Talent 49.7 McCaskill 50
Kean 46 Menendez 53
Senate 52R 47D 1 Independent (Sanders VT)
PA - Santorum (R-I)45% vs. Casey (D) 54%
TN - Corker (R) 52% vs. Ford (D) 48%
MT - Burns (R-I) 51% vs. Tester (D) 49%
VA - Allen (R-I) 51% vs. Webb (D) 48%
RI - Chaffee (R-I) 45% vs. Whitehouse (D) 55%
MO - Talent (R-I)51% vs. McCaskill (D) 49%
NJ - Kean (R) 47% vs. Menendez (D) 53%
Senate - R 55 D 45
Santorum 52 Casey 48
Corker 55 Ford 45
Burns 52 Tester 48
Allen 55 Webb 45
Chaffee 48 Whitehouse 52
Talent 53 McCaskill 47
Kean 51 Menendez 49
(I am an eternal optimist).
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