Posted on 10/31/2006 8:09:22 AM PST by LS
[Here are the key paragraphs. Go to the link for the full article]
Besides Bush's residual popularity in some crucial states and districts, Republican officials say the other reasons they're optimistic are:
1) No Republican is being taken by surprise, unlike many Democrats in 1994. Shortly after Bush's reelection, White House and Republican National Committee officials began working to convince House members that the formidable reelection record for incumbents (since 1996, 97.5 percent) was not something they could take for granted. "What we attempted to do last year," said one of these officials, "was to go out of our way to say to people: 'You face a potential of a race. In order to win as an incumbent, you better have a plan,' " including an intensive focus on voter registration, a message plan that would unfold in phases, and a ground organization that was operating in a measurable, quantifiable way. When candidates were willing to do that, the party offered to work with them to offload some costs. The candidates were also encouraged to help raise money for the party, to complete the circle. One official involved in the process said Republican officials deliberately "scared" lawmakers, telling them: "You face a very tough road. You better be ready."
2) Absentee ballot requests and returns, closely tracked by the party, are meeting or exceeding past levels for Republicans in key states and districts. [LS's comment: I TOLD YOU SO] Republican officials say White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove and party operatives are scrutinizing this data with the same intensity that they followed metrics like voter registration earlier in the cycle. For at least 68 races, they have been getting reports once a week on the number of voters registered, phone calls completed and doors knocked on. Now, they're getting a second report on the number of absentee ballots requested, absentee ballots returned and early votes cast. "We can look at that data flow and make an assumption about what's going on and plotting it out," a Republican official said.
3) When the national parties, national campaign committees, state "victory" committee accounts and competitive campaigns are added up, Republicans maintained a substantial financial advantage over Democrats at the last filing period. "We didn't look on it as one pot," said one official involved in the process. "We looked upon it as four pots, with synergy available through all four."
4) Republicans say the district-by-district playing field favors them in several structural ways not reflected in national polls. Here is their thinking, starting with statistics from the President's 2004 race against John F. Kerry: "There are 41 districts held by a Democrat that Bush carried, and 14 seats held by Republican that Kerry carried, so we're fighting on better turf. You see it in the open seats, where Bush carried 18 of the Republican open seats and Kerry carried two. So we're fighting on better turf."
5) The get-out-the-vote machine designed by Rove and now-Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman in 2001 was dubbed the "72-hour" program, but officials say that's quite a misnomer and that it's really a 17-week or even two-year program. "In Ohio, we are making more phone calls this year than we made two years ago," said an official involved in the process. "Now, that's not the case necessarily in Virginia, which was not a battleground state. You have to build that. In other places, we built that and built it early."
On the road Monday, Rove playfully answered the receptionist's phone at a hotel where the President was conducting an interview with Fox News Channel's Sean Hannity. "Historic Statesboro Inn," Rove said authoritatively, then went to track down the manager himself, returning several times to update the caller on the progress of his quest. On Air Force One on the way home, "the architect" made a rare appearance in the press cabin, handing out chocolate-covered pecans to the reporters. He waved the lid of the tin theatrically and said, "Sweets for my sweets!" In only a few days, it'll be clear whether he has outsmarted the pundits and Democrats, one last time.
I know this because I'm hearing ads like Jennifer Granholm in MI virtually BEGGING the Dems to turn out.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116225455100808339-3aT01t6Ec9cWLJtV5Ooc597qUwE_20061129.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top
What they aren't telling is is how much of an edge, but consider:
If, as I have argued, the polls are off by a good 5% on average, and if the GOP is turning out, on average, 2-3% higher (my estimates, based on canvassing in OH), that's an EIGHT PERCENT MARGIN!!!
But wait!!! The Dems are going to be BELOW their turnout models. So add another 1-2%.
Plug "dem numbazzz" into yer polls, and see where you are.
GOP gains seats in each house.
I don't have a comment...just wanted to see that on the screen again...
As bad as the negative barrage by the Democrat Media has been this election cycle, on all fronts, their lying tactics have always had a high likelihood of backfiring by boosting our turnout.
Another factor that too many have tended to ignore is the large number of marriage and other traditionalist amendments that are on the ballot in many states...all of which will help our GOTV efforts as well.
We have an ad on our TV which is asking people not to vote. It's sponsored by AARP. It has a bunch of people begging people not to vote. Obviously, that gets your attention and you wait for the punch line. Then it says to not vote unless you know the issues and where your people stand on them. I think it's trying to discourage people from voting. That, I would think, must mean that they don't like what their polls are telling them. They instruct viewers to go to dontvote.com, a website that breaks down AARP issues by state and district and takes you to campaign websites.
LOL. "I been sayin' it and sayin' it. Ain't I been sayin' it?"
Or, they obviously think that the majority of their members, despite what we suspect, are going to vote R and they want them to stay home.
LS, don't you think too, that the fact the media has been insisting for 2 months that the dems have already won the elections that an unintended consequence may be that some dems may stay home thinking there isn't a need to vote? Now that would be funny.
If it happens you will be a legend. Tradesports and the Iowa Electronic Markets both have continued GOP control of the house trading at about 30 (IIRC neither Bush nor Kerry got out of the 60/40 range after Labor Day in 2004), although a GOP Senate hold is trading at about 70. However, at Tradesports the contract for Dem pickups in the House is trading at about 98.
So if you're right, you'll outdo not just the Larry Sabatos of the world but markets reflecting the collective judgment of large numbers of people betting their own money. I happen to like markets as a predictive device, but if you are right you can start printing your ticket to the political prognostication Hall of Fame. :)
I hope we see it in 8 days.
It's my feeling too...
The Dems run on "NOTHING" and nothing, typically, wins nothing...
Agendized polls, blatant media bias, has propped up the DEMS, but reality is quite different.
Without a doubt. I know people who HATED DeWine, and if they'd just shut up, those people wouldn't be voting. Now they are, and they'll vote Blackwell, too.
LOL...
It's possible.
We are in far better shape in several races I'm familiar with than the Democrat Media is portraying. Which all along has made me think that if they're using those tactics in those cases, they're likely using them everywhere.
If I'm wrong, there won't be enough crow in Kansas for me to eat.
Ken, I said this summer we would regret not running stronger candidates in CA, WA, NE, and W VA. We literally could have been looking at cloture in the Senate in this election.
One more time!
Don't believe this for a moment. Democrats invented the modern turnout strategy, from "knock and drag" in black neighborhoods to union phone trees to specialized commercials on hand-held computers for specific neighborhoods. Oh, they'll turn their people out all right. The only question is will Republicans do it even better, as they did in 2004?
I remember..no argument here..I wonder if we can get Nelson to cross the aisle..
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.