One more time!
LS and I have corresponded over a long time and I know about the fine work he's doing in Ohio.
And there will be no "but" here.
What has my attention is that polling companies do NOT make their serious money on political polling. They make it in marketing studies when there are no campaigns in progress.
Yes, all the things we have pointed out are true. There is a 2:1 hangup ratio on calls. The sampling is heavier Dem than GOP (but people REALLY need to understand that this is not orchestrated -- they ask people to self identify and that is what the random calls are yielding, more Dem than GOP). Yes more cellphones now -- and maybe that skews towards Dems.
Yes all those things are true, and the pollsters know it and are not morons. They TRY to correct for them. They probably do not do so successfully, but they do try. They don't just accept unadjusted results because that would risk their reputations and their marketing revenue after the election is over.
Anyway . . . I believe the polls are inaccurate. They just aren't inaccurate to bizarre extremes.
One more time!
With feeling, people!