I know this because I'm hearing ads like Jennifer Granholm in MI virtually BEGGING the Dems to turn out.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116225455100808339-3aT01t6Ec9cWLJtV5Ooc597qUwE_20061129.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top
What they aren't telling is is how much of an edge, but consider:
If, as I have argued, the polls are off by a good 5% on average, and if the GOP is turning out, on average, 2-3% higher (my estimates, based on canvassing in OH), that's an EIGHT PERCENT MARGIN!!!
But wait!!! The Dems are going to be BELOW their turnout models. So add another 1-2%.
Plug "dem numbazzz" into yer polls, and see where you are.
GOP gains seats in each house.
We have an ad on our TV which is asking people not to vote. It's sponsored by AARP. It has a bunch of people begging people not to vote. Obviously, that gets your attention and you wait for the punch line. Then it says to not vote unless you know the issues and where your people stand on them. I think it's trying to discourage people from voting. That, I would think, must mean that they don't like what their polls are telling them. They instruct viewers to go to dontvote.com, a website that breaks down AARP issues by state and district and takes you to campaign websites.
LS, don't you think too, that the fact the media has been insisting for 2 months that the dems have already won the elections that an unintended consequence may be that some dems may stay home thinking there isn't a need to vote? Now that would be funny.
Don't believe this for a moment. Democrats invented the modern turnout strategy, from "knock and drag" in black neighborhoods to union phone trees to specialized commercials on hand-held computers for specific neighborhoods. Oh, they'll turn their people out all right. The only question is will Republicans do it even better, as they did in 2004?
I believe the big news of this election will not be a change in congress, though it is possible, but a really unexpectedly low turnout. We had 77 million of so in 2002. I doubt we see 70 million this time, about half the 2004 numbers. In such a world, the most organized operation wins. That is generally republican.
The old media loudly notes that republicans are disillusioned or depressed and cite polls. What they do not note is that the same polls reflect lower numbers for democrat motivation. In addition, I expect the independent vote to be way down. Those folk are pissed at both parties.
Lump me in with those 'top Republicans'... 90% of these polls are DBM/DNC misinformation.
Taranto's Best of the Web for October 27 also has an interesting point about depressed Democrat turnout [emphasis mine]:
Despite a generally buoyant Democratic Party nationally," the New York Times reports, "there are worries among Democratic strategists in some states that blacks may not turn up at the polls in big enough numbers because of disillusionment over past shenanigans." What shenanigans would those be? The paper explains:"This notion that elections are stolen and that elections are rigged is so common in the public sphere that we're having to go out of our way to counter them this year," said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist. . . .Who exactly made the notion that elections are stolen or rigged "so common in the public sphere"? Wouldn't that be the Democrats, who never got over their grudge over Al Gore's photo-finish loss in 2000, who preposterously claimed Ohio was stolen in 2004, and who are already warning that if they don't do as well as they expect this year, it will be because of Republican dirty tricks?Democrats' worries are backed up by a Pew Research Center report that found that blacks were twice as likely now than they were in 2004 to say they had little or no confidence in the voting system, rising to 29 percent from 15 percent.
And more than three times as many blacks as whites--29 percent versus 8 percent--say they do not believe that their vote will be accurately tallied.
Voting experts say the disillusionment is the cumulative effect of election problems in 2000 and 2004, and a reaction to new identification and voter registration laws.
Given that many of the Dems' complaints are made in expressly racial terms--e.g., blacks were disfranchised in Florida, or a requirement to show ID to vote is racist--why should it be surprising that blacks are more "disillusioned" than whites?
Last week I wrote a letter to the editor which appeared in several of our local newspapers concerning the major consequences that we as conservatives face is the Democrats take control of Congress.
Today I received a letter from some screwball writing about how he went ahead and voted a straight Democrat ticket as a result of my letter.
My letter never made any metion of any party affiliation. It simply made mention of the battle between left and right.
Apparently this screwball want America to become part of a G**less New World Order groupthink. He and his kind want to see christians and conservatives thrown under the bus.
I can assure you if this screwball has his way a lot of communities like ourswhich depend on christians and conservatives for their economic and social exsistence will certainly go to pot.
This goofball not only had the gall to not include his return address on the envelope, he also had the gall to put my dad's name on it. He wasn't the one that wrote the article. I did.
It's amazing the collosial amount of ignorance and stupidity that some people choose to exhibit with what's at stake in this election.
Regards.......
No Republican is being taken by surprise, unlike many Democrats in 1994
Here's INdiana's November Surprise!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1728400/posts
Other links re: Dickerson's race are posted on the thread!
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
The MSM hasn't quite figured it out yet. If the last election showed an individual district with a 60% Republican representation but the MSM is using a poll with 8-15% more Democrats than Republicans for that district then the numbers will be skewed. The Republicans will not lose anymore than 8 House seats and 3 Senate seats.
I'm not a "Top Republican", but I concur. We will have the last laugh.
Bush hatred does not play well with the people, and that is all the Democrats are campaigning on.
I would like to see Time/Warner stocks or NYT stocks after the election.
Republicans holding both houses, no matter by how much, will be DEVASTATING to the MSM.
Pollsters will be really screwed (do customers get a refund?)
It also may mean the end of RealClearPolitics since they were bought out by time magazine.
Rush just read your excerpts word for word. :)
bttt
I have only sporadically seen you prognisticate over the past 5-6 weeks. I have been barraged by MSNBC, ABC,NBC, CBs, and NBC saying that there is no way the republicans can win or even hold majority in the house and probably the senate. They have repeated this mantra ad-nauseum. It has had a mild effect on my enthusiam for Nov. 2. But it has made me very angry. These pricks are telling me the future in order to take the starch out of my pecker. Now, I am pissed. They cannot know the future, especially the motivation of those not carefully following these races. Yet they, like Goebells, keeps repeating what is unknowable. It is clear this orchestrated brain-washing is designed for one final result,....to demoralize republicans and put dems into power.
Well, here is my response. I have conscripted voters for the GOP. I am calling to remind them to vote, and vote early. So far, I have conscripted 2 immediate family members, to the point of making sure they got early registration forms. Then my brother, his wife, his 2 kids, their spouses, my sister and her husband, her two kids and one of their spouses. All will be voting Republican, across the block. I have only begun to fight these bastards in the MSM and the G*****n democrat antiGod, proabortion, proeuthenasia, antimilitary, protaxcuts,etc, etc.
It makes me mad as hell when the MSM tells me what I think. Why would they do that? Because they want me to think that way. So MSM, dems, kiss my rosey, red, bung. I am not going to let you win. Never again. I would like the dems and MSM know they could not turn me, but they encouraged me to conscript at least 11 other people to vote Republican. I have never done that before. I voted, but I did not go out to turn voters. Thanks to the MSM and dems, I have done so. It has been fun. And I am not through. I have 7 more days to do more. By the way, the breakout in the people I mentioned have, in the past, was about 5 republicans and 6 democrat voters. I took the 6 to the republican side, so if my math is correct, the dems go down 12 and the republicans up go to 17. I like that math.
Well the lying conniving demagogy democrats have got me SOOOOO pist off I'd crall over broken glass in a pit of salt to get one extra vote to beat the bastards... I've sent in my vote today
I voted all Republican this morning in Cobb County, GA