[untenured]

GOP gains seats in each house.

If it happens you will be a legend. Tradesports and the Iowa Electronic Markets both have continued GOP control of the house trading at about 30 (IIRC neither Bush nor Kerry got out of the 60/40 range after Labor Day in 2004), although a GOP Senate hold is trading at about 70. However, at Tradesports the contract for Dem pickups in the House is trading at about 98.

So if you're right, you'll outdo not just the Larry Sabatos of the world but markets reflecting the collective judgment of large numbers of people betting their own money. I happen to like markets as a predictive device, but if you are right you can start printing your ticket to the political prognostication Hall of Fame. :)

[LS]

If I'm wrong, there won't be enough crow in Kansas for me to eat.

[Welike ike]

Untenured, I really do not understand why so many believe Tradesports is a bellwether for Election results. I traded there in the 2004 election cycle and a few times since. Wall Street is the true money indicator in elections, not a off shore betting site.

Both Tradesports and ladbrokes had Bush near 20% after the bogus 2004 exit polls. They had David Vitter losing in LA and Martinez losing in FL on election day along with many House Races.

Recently they had Obrador a 70% favorite to win in Mexico on election eve.

They also had Francine Busby a favorite to win the CAL 50 special in June.

Tradesports really blew it in 2005 in the VA Governor race where they had Kilgore a 65% favorite to win one week out.

Off shore betting sites are filled with novice Europeans and emotional bettors who only follow Bias polling.

I plan to buy GOP contracts today at a great buying opportunity of 30

[Welike ike]

Untenured, I really do not understand why so many believe Tradesports is a bellwether for Election results. I traded there in the 2004 election cycle and a few times since. Wall Street is the true money indicator in elections, not a off shore betting site.

Both Tradesports and ladbrokes had Bush near 20% after the bogus 2004 exit polls. They had David Vitter losing in LA and Martinez losing in FL on election day along with many House Races.

Recently they had Obrador a 70% favorite to win in Mexico on election eve.

They also had Francine Busby a favorite to win the CAL 50 special in June.

Tradesports really blew it in 2005 in the VA Governor race where they had Kilgore a 65% favorite to win one week out.

Off shore betting sites are filled with novice Europeans and emotional bettors who only follow Bias polling.

I plan to buy GOP contracts today at a great buying opportunity of 30