Posted on 10/31/2006 8:09:22 AM PST by LS
[Here are the key paragraphs. Go to the link for the full article]
Besides Bush's residual popularity in some crucial states and districts, Republican officials say the other reasons they're optimistic are:
1) No Republican is being taken by surprise, unlike many Democrats in 1994. Shortly after Bush's reelection, White House and Republican National Committee officials began working to convince House members that the formidable reelection record for incumbents (since 1996, 97.5 percent) was not something they could take for granted. "What we attempted to do last year," said one of these officials, "was to go out of our way to say to people: 'You face a potential of a race. In order to win as an incumbent, you better have a plan,' " including an intensive focus on voter registration, a message plan that would unfold in phases, and a ground organization that was operating in a measurable, quantifiable way. When candidates were willing to do that, the party offered to work with them to offload some costs. The candidates were also encouraged to help raise money for the party, to complete the circle. One official involved in the process said Republican officials deliberately "scared" lawmakers, telling them: "You face a very tough road. You better be ready."
2) Absentee ballot requests and returns, closely tracked by the party, are meeting or exceeding past levels for Republicans in key states and districts. [LS's comment: I TOLD YOU SO] Republican officials say White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove and party operatives are scrutinizing this data with the same intensity that they followed metrics like voter registration earlier in the cycle. For at least 68 races, they have been getting reports once a week on the number of voters registered, phone calls completed and doors knocked on. Now, they're getting a second report on the number of absentee ballots requested, absentee ballots returned and early votes cast. "We can look at that data flow and make an assumption about what's going on and plotting it out," a Republican official said.
3) When the national parties, national campaign committees, state "victory" committee accounts and competitive campaigns are added up, Republicans maintained a substantial financial advantage over Democrats at the last filing period. "We didn't look on it as one pot," said one official involved in the process. "We looked upon it as four pots, with synergy available through all four."
4) Republicans say the district-by-district playing field favors them in several structural ways not reflected in national polls. Here is their thinking, starting with statistics from the President's 2004 race against John F. Kerry: "There are 41 districts held by a Democrat that Bush carried, and 14 seats held by Republican that Kerry carried, so we're fighting on better turf. You see it in the open seats, where Bush carried 18 of the Republican open seats and Kerry carried two. So we're fighting on better turf."
5) The get-out-the-vote machine designed by Rove and now-Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman in 2001 was dubbed the "72-hour" program, but officials say that's quite a misnomer and that it's really a 17-week or even two-year program. "In Ohio, we are making more phone calls this year than we made two years ago," said an official involved in the process. "Now, that's not the case necessarily in Virginia, which was not a battleground state. You have to build that. In other places, we built that and built it early."
On the road Monday, Rove playfully answered the receptionist's phone at a hotel where the President was conducting an interview with Fox News Channel's Sean Hannity. "Historic Statesboro Inn," Rove said authoritatively, then went to track down the manager himself, returning several times to update the caller on the progress of his quest. On Air Force One on the way home, "the architect" made a rare appearance in the press cabin, handing out chocolate-covered pecans to the reporters. He waved the lid of the tin theatrically and said, "Sweets for my sweets!" In only a few days, it'll be clear whether he has outsmarted the pundits and Democrats, one last time.
YES!
I'm not a "Top Republican", but I concur. We will have the last laugh.
Bush hatred does not play well with the people, and that is all the Democrats are campaigning on.
Before you snub Zogby, at least in these races, he has been closer to reality throughout, and this # is consistent with internal campain poll's numbers (-8%). And this was done on 10/23-27-- AFTER Foley-gate and pedophilia-gate!
The BEST news is that Republicans are indeed "coming home" as LS says: KB 85%, DeWine 90%. Independents are still in the low 30s for both-- 30 and 33, respectively, but as I said before: "If KB gets 90% of conservatives (3% more than Bush) and 40% of "moderates" (1% less than (Bush), and 3% of liberals (11% LESS than Bush), that's 50%!
Where'd those 14-28% leads go in 2-3 weeks? Well, I'll tell ya. As I posted before, since August, polls have shown, previously pro-Strickland Republicans and non-Democrat undecideds moving away from Strickland and breaking for Blackwell.
The wild card could be the Black vote. Right now, 50% of the Black vote makes up the entire CURRENT deficit to 50%-- very doable. That necessary percentage (50%) drops significantly as the current 85/30 Rep/Ind split approaches 90/40 (~20%-- a near lock).
My back of the envelope analyses from available poll internals showed that this race was NEVER more than a 15% deficit at its worst. The last one I did last week showed it at -6.2.
Yes. They certainly will. A lot of people are going to be very surprised next Wednesday.
I don't think that's it. I think the air went out of their baloon two years ago, and they've never recovered. They've never figured out the GOP volunteer effort, either.
See the post I put up right after yours about the new Zobgy poll on Blackwell/DeWine. If you adjust for turnout, DeWine is now winning, and Blackwell is within 2%.
What's funny is the fact that a lot of Democrat Core VotersTM say they are not going to vote because they are convinced that the Republicans aren't going to count their votes, anyway. The Democrats have been making their reckless and outrageous smears since 2000, and have wound up supressing their own votes!
I was tempted to ask if they have always been accurate.
At the same time the GOP volunteers efforts were taking off, many state now have new vote ID laws which really cuts into their "base". Plus, there HAS been an attempt to cut out the "voter fraud".
Followed the voter fraud since 2004. (Type in Repository in key word). IMO many were exposed and some even prosecuted. Just the exposure and letting them know we're on to them, cuts down the number of tries. Each illegal vote stopped is a vote found.
One more time!
With feeling, people!
I think that also applies to "Taft hatred" here in OH. Sure, people don't like him, but they don't "hate republicans." They see right through attempts to link Blackwell to Taft.
You won't have to eat much crow. Months ago, you staked out a bold position. You've backed it up with research and reason. You have held firm throughout the LSM shelling and flighty-righty nervous-nelling. I think we'll hold the House and Senate - I have placed bets on it - don't know if we'll make gains. But either way, you have Kept The Faith. And for that, Hats Off!
Why the party does not take it's best shot at every single seat, I will never know. If you contest a seat, you might get lucky. If you don't try to win, you are guaranteed to lose.
You are quite welcome.. Tradesports is just a piddly little Costa Rican amateur betting site that is based on emotion, not facts like Wall Street.
Not to mention people would want to know why I supported Eric Clapner over Jimi Hendrix :)
The "best shots" have to volunteer for the task.
And a lot of them do not want a failed Senate campaign on their resume.
In today's political news, LS is on the campaign stump, addressing a scandal in which he was accused of not using enough COWBELL!
It's more the anal exam you have to go through---everything from finances to past sexual activity (Gov. Ryan, anyone?) to racial slurs you might have used (and who hasn't?).
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