Posted on 10/31/2006 8:09:22 AM PST by LS
[Here are the key paragraphs. Go to the link for the full article]
Besides Bush's residual popularity in some crucial states and districts, Republican officials say the other reasons they're optimistic are:
1) No Republican is being taken by surprise, unlike many Democrats in 1994. Shortly after Bush's reelection, White House and Republican National Committee officials began working to convince House members that the formidable reelection record for incumbents (since 1996, 97.5 percent) was not something they could take for granted. "What we attempted to do last year," said one of these officials, "was to go out of our way to say to people: 'You face a potential of a race. In order to win as an incumbent, you better have a plan,' " including an intensive focus on voter registration, a message plan that would unfold in phases, and a ground organization that was operating in a measurable, quantifiable way. When candidates were willing to do that, the party offered to work with them to offload some costs. The candidates were also encouraged to help raise money for the party, to complete the circle. One official involved in the process said Republican officials deliberately "scared" lawmakers, telling them: "You face a very tough road. You better be ready."
2) Absentee ballot requests and returns, closely tracked by the party, are meeting or exceeding past levels for Republicans in key states and districts. [LS's comment: I TOLD YOU SO] Republican officials say White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove and party operatives are scrutinizing this data with the same intensity that they followed metrics like voter registration earlier in the cycle. For at least 68 races, they have been getting reports once a week on the number of voters registered, phone calls completed and doors knocked on. Now, they're getting a second report on the number of absentee ballots requested, absentee ballots returned and early votes cast. "We can look at that data flow and make an assumption about what's going on and plotting it out," a Republican official said.
3) When the national parties, national campaign committees, state "victory" committee accounts and competitive campaigns are added up, Republicans maintained a substantial financial advantage over Democrats at the last filing period. "We didn't look on it as one pot," said one official involved in the process. "We looked upon it as four pots, with synergy available through all four."
4) Republicans say the district-by-district playing field favors them in several structural ways not reflected in national polls. Here is their thinking, starting with statistics from the President's 2004 race against John F. Kerry: "There are 41 districts held by a Democrat that Bush carried, and 14 seats held by Republican that Kerry carried, so we're fighting on better turf. You see it in the open seats, where Bush carried 18 of the Republican open seats and Kerry carried two. So we're fighting on better turf."
5) The get-out-the-vote machine designed by Rove and now-Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman in 2001 was dubbed the "72-hour" program, but officials say that's quite a misnomer and that it's really a 17-week or even two-year program. "In Ohio, we are making more phone calls this year than we made two years ago," said an official involved in the process. "Now, that's not the case necessarily in Virginia, which was not a battleground state. You have to build that. In other places, we built that and built it early."
On the road Monday, Rove playfully answered the receptionist's phone at a hotel where the President was conducting an interview with Fox News Channel's Sean Hannity. "Historic Statesboro Inn," Rove said authoritatively, then went to track down the manager himself, returning several times to update the caller on the progress of his quest. On Air Force One on the way home, "the architect" made a rare appearance in the press cabin, handing out chocolate-covered pecans to the reporters. He waved the lid of the tin theatrically and said, "Sweets for my sweets!" In only a few days, it'll be clear whether he has outsmarted the pundits and Democrats, one last time.
Do you think the Dems are just overconfident? Blackwell hasn't been close in almost any poll for months, and DeWine has been trailing mostly since Brown entered the race. They may not see the need to invest the resources.
"Or, they obviously think that the majority of their members, despite what we suspect, are going to vote R and they want them to stay home."
I'm not a member because the AARP is anti-gun.
So good luck with your trading. :) I for one would like to see how you do!
That would be a serious miscalculation on their part. Our GOTV Kung Fu is strong.
No Republican is being taken by surprise, unlike many Democrats in 1994
Here's INdiana's November Surprise!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1728400/posts
Other links re: Dickerson's race are posted on the thread!
Your bad! ;^)
My sis says there is one commercial for Mi governor that they all laugh at every time it's shown. Looks like a movie tease. That her neighbors hate the gov so much that they're not voting for any "D".
Hmmm, "some states?" Maybe OH, PA, and MD, where we hvae black candidates running? Perhaps blacks don't want to tell their Dem "massas" that they are off the plantation.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
I think we might win BOTH in Michigan..the governor's numbers are so bad..they might hurt Debbue..
2 GA seats are seriously in play; Julia Carson in IN (which you mention); Melissa Bean (IL) in trouble. There is a seat in AL that is contested, and Mullohan in W VA. Plus the OR and TN seats you mention. The seats are out there!
You thank Elizabeth Dole.
Can't go by polls. I've shown repeatedly why I think the polls are badly, badly off (we're talking in some cases 5-10 points). Blackwell is about 5 down, with one week to go. DeWine about the same. This is EASILY overcome by our turnout and their non-turnout.
LOL. Me either. My wife sends them, on their own stamp, a nasty note with every mailing.
Well, that's what I'm wondering. I just feel in my bones that Dem turnout is going to be below part this time around. I sense no enthusiam out there.
Unfortunately I think Stabenow will win, but, on the other hand I think Burns will pull out a squeaker in Montana. We also have even chances to pick up seats in MD and NJ. I think the new Senate will be:
52 Repubs
46 dems
2 Independents (who caucus with the dems)
Sis knows it's going that way in her area. (She's polled her six kids and all their friends)....It's usually Detroit and/or FLint (two of the most dangerous places to live in the US) that messes everything up!
Little Debbie made a mistake when she opening supported and passed out the GOV's yard sign as she was going door to door. Lesson: Don't link yourself to a LOOSER!
Well, 1% may be all we need.
But I would characterize the Dem turnout effort of 2004 as extraordinary. A very mediocre candidate netted 58 million votes, enough to win every election in American history except one - because Bush/Cheney just did something shocking. 61 million votes! But no one should believe that Dems don't know how to do it.
Read it yesterday... can't remember where. It was in a pro-dem article reflecting on the ability of the Republicans to GOTV.
The MSM hasn't quite figured it out yet. If the last election showed an individual district with a 60% Republican representation but the MSM is using a poll with 8-15% more Democrats than Republicans for that district then the numbers will be skewed. The Republicans will not lose anymore than 8 House seats and 3 Senate seats.
Yeah we know that, but I'm saying the Democrats may be believing the polls, and that's why they haven't seen fit to give their GOTV effort in Ohio a boost, which is probably why you don't see the evidence of them out there. They think it's a lock, and don't see the need to pump in a lot of cash or effort.
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