Posted on 10/17/2006 4:21:54 PM PDT by shrinkermd
Recent Polls Outside The Historical Norm For Party ID. A spate of recent polls paints a very gloomy electoral outlook for GOP candidates in next month's elections. One reason for that, possibly, is a set of samples in recent polls that do not mirror the historical norm for party ID.
A memo circulating among Republicans on the Hill, authored by GOP pollster David Winston, takes a look at the historical spread between Democrats and Republicans in House elections and polling over the last 14 years. According to Winston's analysis, there is a material discrepancy between the party identification listed by people in exit polls (people who actually voted) between 1992 and 2004, and those used over the last few weeks.
In most of the years between 1992 and 2004, Democrats held a slight advantage in party ID. Winston based his data on VNS/Media exit surveys, and concluded in 1992, Democrats held a 3 point advantage; in 1996, they held a 4 point advantage; in 1998, a 1 point advantage; and in 2000, a 3 point advantage. In two election years, 1994 and 2004, the percentages of people identifying themselves as Republicans and Democrats were identical, i.e., no advantage to either party. 2002 was the only year in which Republicans held an advantage over Democrats, with 40% identifying themselves to exit pollsters as Republicans and 38% identifying themselves as Democrats.
In short, between 1992 and 2004, only once did one party enjoy an advantage as large as 4 points over the other in party ID. But in recent polling samples used by eight different polling organizations (USA Today/Gallup, CBS/NYTimes, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/Opinion Research, Newsweek, AP/Ipsos, Pew, and Time), the Democratic advantage in the sample surveyed was never less than 5 points.
All these organizations conducted surveys in early October. According to Winston, the Democrats held the following party ID advantages in these early-October surveys: * USAToday/Gallup: 9 points. * CBS/NYT: 5 points * ABC/WP: 8 points * CNN: did not provide sample party ID details. * Newsweek: 11 points. * AP/Ipsos: 8 points. * Pew: 7 points. * Time: 8 points.
Party registrations shift over time, and many political operatives believe the country starts to gravitate away from a party that has been in power over an extended period of time. Republicans have controlled the House since 1995. Winston acknowledges that possibility in his memo, writing, "It is certainly not out of the realm of possibility that this year's election could fall outside of historical results, but any survey that does should acknowledge that
Someone is wrong big time!
bump
EXCELLENT ARTICLE!!!
There has been a lot of troubling information to come out lately. I don't think it all can be laid at the feet of poll bias. I think losing seats is a virtual guarntee. The question is whether or not we can hold onto control. The margin is going to be narrow and our turnout better be good.
Prepare to see the DUmmies go off the deep end!
Gee, I think someone named LS has been saying for months that the pollsters were oversampling Dems by 5% at least!
Thanks for posting.
The Dims peaked probably last week some time.
The tide will begin to flow the other way for the next three weeks.
"Early October Surveys" are not "Exit Polls of actual voters".
OK, you get today's genius award.
You will find this of interest...
LOL. I just pinged you and scrolled down to see your post...
I'd either lie or refuse to participate in exit polls. There's only one poll that counts. 'Rats should plan to go to the polls on their special day - WEDNESDAY!
One of the Dems top strategies is to affect voter turnout.
The Republicans have more money, and are better organized but since the Dems have no vision or plan other than selling us all down the river, they must resort to mudslinging and rigged polls.
I am missing something here. All the polls listed say that they sampled more Democrats than Republicans. But does this mean there are *actually* fewer voters identifying themselves as Republicans or only that all the polls are using biased samples?
I suspect Rich Lowry is right. Consider SurveyUSA's poll of NM-1, for instance. They claim: "In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in NM1 has changed from a 5-point Democrat advantage to a 16-point Democrat advantage." That is implausible, at best.
If you apply a more realistic turnout model to this race, you end up with a toss-up instead of an eight-point Democrat lead.
"Gee, I think someone named LS has been saying for months that the pollsters were oversampling Dems by 5% at least!"
And another Freeper named DrDeb has been saying the same thing!
[BTW: Have you been able to identify the party affiliation ratios used by the OhioPoll? . . . Even their PDF results don't identify the party affiliation of respondents!]
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