[B Knotts]

I suspect Rich Lowry is right. Consider SurveyUSA's poll of NM-1, for instance. They claim: "In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in NM1 has changed from a 5-point Democrat advantage to a 16-point Democrat advantage." That is implausible, at best.

If you apply a more realistic turnout model to this race, you end up with a toss-up instead of an eight-point Democrat lead.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Precisely. Garbage in...Garbage out....I spoke with party folks last night and they said not to believe the polls that have come out in the last few weeks. This simply confirms what I heard.

[Intolerant in NJ]

They claim: "In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in NM1 has changed from a 5-point Democrat advantage to a 16-point Democrat advantage." - reputable pollsters use factors such as patterns of past voting behavior to determine "likely voters", and these are established and not given to change dramatically over four weeks - one or both of these samples were either nonrepresentative or they relied on questionable methods to determine who was "likely" to vote, like verbal reports which are unreliable...even now I feel that I am reluctant to go vote for Kean in our Senatorial race, but since I haven't missed an election - general, primary or schoolboard - in six years, I know I'll be out bright and early on November 7 to push the button.....