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University of Akron poll: DeWine up 1, Stickland leads by 12
University of Akron ^ | 10 October 2006 | Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics

Posted on 10/10/2006 4:11:53 PM PDT by okstate

The Bliss Institute 2006 General Election Survey finds Democrat Ted Strickland with a substantial lead over Republican Ken Blackwell in the race for Ohio governor. However, the race for U.S. Senate is a dead heat between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Mike DeWine. The Republican candidate leads in the race for attorney general, while the Democratic candidates are ahead in the campaigns for auditor, secretary of state, and treasurer. In terms of ballot measures, a proposal to raise the minimum wage is backed by an overwhelming majority, while proposals to allow slot machines and to ban smoking in public places with some exceptions are ahead by smaller margins. The political attitudes, issue priorities, and demographic characteristics of voters help explain these patterns of preferences among likely voters. Overall, one-half of Ohioans expressed a great deal of confidence that their votes would be counted fairly in the 2006 general election. However, Democrats and less likely voters reported much lower levels of confidence than Republicans and likely voters.

This report is based on a survey of a random sample of Ohio adults interviewed by telephone between August 20th and September 29th, 2006 by the Center for Marketing & Opinion Research, LLC of Canton, Ohio. The number of respondents was 1,073 and the overall margin of error for the general public sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Smaller sub-samples have margins of error that are higher.

To assess voter turnout, the report identifies a sub-sample of 477 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. This measure of likely voters is based on variables associated with voter turnout overall and in recent Ohio gubernatorial elections.1 Put another way, the survey figures for the general public approximate the level of turnout in the 2004 presidential election in Ohio and the likely voter sub-sample approximates the turnout of the 1998 gubernatorial race in Ohio.

In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican Ken Blackwell by a substantial margin. In the general public, 41% favor Strickland, 27% Blackwell, 4% other gubernatorial candidates, and 29% were undecided. Among likely voters, 47% favor Strickland, 34% Blackwell, 3% other candidates, and 16% undecided. Thus, Strickland holds a 14 percentage point lead among likely voters, a margin that differs little for the general public.

In contrast, the U.S. Senate race is very close. In the public as a whole, Democrat Sherrod Brown has the support of 35% of respondents and Republican Mike DeWine 36%, with other candidates at 3% and 25% undecided. Among likely voters, the figures are Brown 41%, DeWine 42%, and other candidates 3%, with 14% undecided.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; blackwell; brown; dewine; poll; polls; strickland; universityofakron
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I don't want to say this poll is bad... but it's got weird aspects. For one, it was taken over a 5 week period. For that reason alone I'm inclined to discount it altogether.

But if we take it at face value.. I doubt Blackwell can make up all this ground, but DeWine is in very good shape. The Ohio Senate race, more than any other, will be about turnout on Election Day.

1 posted on 10/10/2006 4:11:54 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

We lose the gubmentship of OH could spell bad things for 08.


2 posted on 10/10/2006 4:12:57 PM PDT by samadams2000 (Somebody important make....THE CALL!)
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To: okstate
29 and 25 percent undecided?
3 posted on 10/10/2006 4:13:40 PM PDT by CzarNicky (Gentlemen, Dethklok has summoned a troll.)
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To: CzarNicky

Yea, like I said, it's got a lot of problems. It's just weird. One good thing though, is that in the final third of the survey they said there was a large uptick in support for DeWine.


4 posted on 10/10/2006 4:14:28 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

BS Poll -- 5 weeks of polling? So much for a snapshot.


5 posted on 10/10/2006 4:15:16 PM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: Alter Kaker

Yea. There's other stuff wrong with it... check out the link (Warning.. a pdf)


6 posted on 10/10/2006 4:16:01 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

If the poll was taken over the last 5 weeks it is totally useless.


7 posted on 10/10/2006 4:16:38 PM PDT by proudpapa (of three.)
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To: okstate

Given the latest trends...

I'd say it's more like DeWeiner +3 or +4 and Strickland by the same margin.

In short, both races are borderline statistical dead heats....


8 posted on 10/10/2006 4:16:50 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Golden Eagle defends scum like Bill Gates and Fred Phelps. And he does it willingly.)
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To: okstate
It is going to be impossible for Brown to keep pretending to be a moderate all the way up to Election Day. The question is whether or not Ohio voters are angry enough at DeWine to replace him with a Socialist.

I think it will be very close, but I think DeWine pulls it out in the end.

9 posted on 10/10/2006 4:17:55 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: okstate
any poll that is not of Registered or Likely voters is worthless. The only thing that counts are people who actually have voted in the past. When they poll all the Democrat welfare or low life don't give a darn idiots the 50% undecided because they are clueless crowd is a complete waste of time and always done to support Democrats.
10 posted on 10/10/2006 4:18:55 PM PDT by pwatson
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To: MikefromOhio

I can agree about DeWine, maybe. But Strickland is up more like 8-12, not 3 or 4. This poll showed heavy trending toward DeWine toward the end of interviewing.

Blackwell's numbers were flat, though.


11 posted on 10/10/2006 4:19:03 PM PDT by okstate
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To: pwatson

It's of likely voters.


12 posted on 10/10/2006 4:19:14 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

The only poll that counts is Nov 7th. Unless you are a Democrat, your polling date is Nov 8th.


13 posted on 10/10/2006 4:19:25 PM PDT by YdontUleaveLibs (Reason is out to lunch. How may I help you?)
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To: okstate; LS

that's not what people are hearing and I'm not even working like LS is doing.....

he's actually going door to door in a Democratic county and hearing Blackwell's name more....


14 posted on 10/10/2006 4:20:45 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Golden Eagle defends scum like Bill Gates and Fred Phelps. And he does it willingly.)
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To: MikefromOhio

I turst LS on Ohio. He called OH for GWB in 2004 and had it right on the money. It looks like the trend is our friend in OH. Dewine may be a RINO, but he votes consistently in favor of the GWOT.


15 posted on 10/10/2006 4:23:20 PM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: MikefromOhio

I hate to speak ill of a fellow FReeper but I disagree with LS here. I don't see any way that Blackwell can win now. It's just too close to the election. DeWine can win, sure. In fact I'd bet he probably will. But I just don't see it happening for Blackwell.


16 posted on 10/10/2006 4:23:44 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Don'tMessWithTexas

LS did call Ohio correctly in terms of the winner, but he had the margin for Bush higher than what it was (he predicted 5 percent). The polls called it better than he did.


17 posted on 10/10/2006 4:24:22 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

I think it will be a lot closer than you're saying.

If there is a strong turnout, Blackwell will get some wings.


18 posted on 10/10/2006 4:25:11 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Golden Eagle defends scum like Bill Gates and Fred Phelps. And he does it willingly.)
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To: samadams2000

Yeah - I blame Taft for being next to useless


19 posted on 10/10/2006 4:35:16 PM PDT by asburygrad
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To: okstate

I don't think these polls are tapping into all the support Blackwell will recieve from the evangelicals. I suspect there will be a lot of people suprised on election day.


20 posted on 10/10/2006 4:36:36 PM PDT by asburygrad
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