Posted on 10/10/2006 4:11:53 PM PDT by okstate
The Bliss Institute 2006 General Election Survey finds Democrat Ted Strickland with a substantial lead over Republican Ken Blackwell in the race for Ohio governor. However, the race for U.S. Senate is a dead heat between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Mike DeWine. The Republican candidate leads in the race for attorney general, while the Democratic candidates are ahead in the campaigns for auditor, secretary of state, and treasurer. In terms of ballot measures, a proposal to raise the minimum wage is backed by an overwhelming majority, while proposals to allow slot machines and to ban smoking in public places with some exceptions are ahead by smaller margins. The political attitudes, issue priorities, and demographic characteristics of voters help explain these patterns of preferences among likely voters. Overall, one-half of Ohioans expressed a great deal of confidence that their votes would be counted fairly in the 2006 general election. However, Democrats and less likely voters reported much lower levels of confidence than Republicans and likely voters.
This report is based on a survey of a random sample of Ohio adults interviewed by telephone between August 20th and September 29th, 2006 by the Center for Marketing & Opinion Research, LLC of Canton, Ohio. The number of respondents was 1,073 and the overall margin of error for the general public sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Smaller sub-samples have margins of error that are higher.
To assess voter turnout, the report identifies a sub-sample of 477 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. This measure of likely voters is based on variables associated with voter turnout overall and in recent Ohio gubernatorial elections.1 Put another way, the survey figures for the general public approximate the level of turnout in the 2004 presidential election in Ohio and the likely voter sub-sample approximates the turnout of the 1998 gubernatorial race in Ohio.
In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican Ken Blackwell by a substantial margin. In the general public, 41% favor Strickland, 27% Blackwell, 4% other gubernatorial candidates, and 29% were undecided. Among likely voters, 47% favor Strickland, 34% Blackwell, 3% other candidates, and 16% undecided. Thus, Strickland holds a 14 percentage point lead among likely voters, a margin that differs little for the general public.
In contrast, the U.S. Senate race is very close. In the public as a whole, Democrat Sherrod Brown has the support of 35% of respondents and Republican Mike DeWine 36%, with other candidates at 3% and 25% undecided. Among likely voters, the figures are Brown 41%, DeWine 42%, and other candidates 3%, with 14% undecided.
But if we take it at face value.. I doubt Blackwell can make up all this ground, but DeWine is in very good shape. The Ohio Senate race, more than any other, will be about turnout on Election Day.
We lose the gubmentship of OH could spell bad things for 08.
Yea, like I said, it's got a lot of problems. It's just weird. One good thing though, is that in the final third of the survey they said there was a large uptick in support for DeWine.
BS Poll -- 5 weeks of polling? So much for a snapshot.
Yea. There's other stuff wrong with it... check out the link (Warning.. a pdf)
If the poll was taken over the last 5 weeks it is totally useless.
Given the latest trends...
I'd say it's more like DeWeiner +3 or +4 and Strickland by the same margin.
In short, both races are borderline statistical dead heats....
I think it will be very close, but I think DeWine pulls it out in the end.
I can agree about DeWine, maybe. But Strickland is up more like 8-12, not 3 or 4. This poll showed heavy trending toward DeWine toward the end of interviewing.
Blackwell's numbers were flat, though.
It's of likely voters.
The only poll that counts is Nov 7th. Unless you are a Democrat, your polling date is Nov 8th.
that's not what people are hearing and I'm not even working like LS is doing.....
he's actually going door to door in a Democratic county and hearing Blackwell's name more....
I turst LS on Ohio. He called OH for GWB in 2004 and had it right on the money. It looks like the trend is our friend in OH. Dewine may be a RINO, but he votes consistently in favor of the GWOT.
I hate to speak ill of a fellow FReeper but I disagree with LS here. I don't see any way that Blackwell can win now. It's just too close to the election. DeWine can win, sure. In fact I'd bet he probably will. But I just don't see it happening for Blackwell.
LS did call Ohio correctly in terms of the winner, but he had the margin for Bush higher than what it was (he predicted 5 percent). The polls called it better than he did.
I think it will be a lot closer than you're saying.
If there is a strong turnout, Blackwell will get some wings.
Yeah - I blame Taft for being next to useless
I don't think these polls are tapping into all the support Blackwell will recieve from the evangelicals. I suspect there will be a lot of people suprised on election day.
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