Posted on 10/09/2006 8:31:59 PM PDT by okstate
DFL Wetterling Gaining On Bachmann in MN6:
In an election in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District today, 10/9/05, Republican Michele Bachmann leads DFL Candidate Patty Wetterling, 47% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis.
Since an identical SurveyUSA KSTP-TV poll released 9/19/06, Bachmann has lost 3 points and Wetterling has gained 3 points. Bachmann had led by 9, now leads by 3.
There is day-to-day movement within this survey that may or may not be significant. SurveyUSA has broken out separately, as a crosstab, in the tabular display, the results from 10/6, 10/7 and 10/8.
Separately, SurveyUSA includes a "Timeline" box. Bachmann today gets 88% of Republican votes. Wetterling gets 83% of Democrat votes. Independents split.
Wetterling leads by 10 points among voters age 50 to 64, and by 7 points among voters age 65+. 3 weeks ago these age groups were split evenly. Bachmann leads among voters under age 50.
Wetterling leads by 10 points among voters with household income under $40K. 3 weeks ago, this group supported Bachmann by 7 points, a 17-point swing.
Bachmann leads by 16 points among men. Wetterling leads by 9 points among women.
Bachmann leads by 79 points among conservatives. Wetterling leads by 71 points among liberals and by 24 points among moderates.
Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 89% choose Bachmann. Of those who disapprove of Bush's job performance, 76% choose Wetterling. President Bush's job approval among likely voters in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District is 42%.
Incumbent 3-term Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy is running for the U.S. Senate this year. The House seat is open. Wetterling lost to Kennedy by 8 points in 2004. The election is on 11/7/06.
669 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 3.9%
Ahem.....
Assuming you aren't being willfully dense, please visit their breakdown of numbers in which they show they surveyed 50% men and 50% women.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9c86125b-b75e-464d-b51c-4c5bfdccc78b
Yes, Wetterling overreached on the Foley ad. Minnesota does not like that crap, evidenced by the Wellstone Funeral.
OK, ok, my math sucks.
CO-05 is a bit of a shocker, and vaults that one into Leans GOP. If nothing else, this might mean that a seat flips that wasn't on my list as of Labor Day, which would doubly disappoint me. :(
Meanwhile, the CO-04 poll presents something of a dilemma. In the Survey USA poll that showed a 4 point race the Reform Party candidate was named and took 8% of the vote. It's unclear whether Mason-Dixon similarly named the third party opponent or which approach is preferable anyhow. However, Colorado voters have a history of giving third parties a sizable protest vote commonly in high single digits.
About CO-04: Mason-Dixon polled a generic Other candidate @ 7%, which I'm sure you noticed. Usually, in polling, when refering to a generic Other candidate, you get a higher % than when you actually poll the name of the candidate unless that person has significantly higher name recognition.
I did notice that but it's unclear how they asked the question/s to arrive at the 7% other. I did make CO-04 a bit more secure on my own lists though. Here's the latest ordering of Toss Ups and Leans.
Lean Democratic
1 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
2 (TX-22) DeLay*
3 (FL-16) Foley*
4 (CO-07) Beauprez*
5 (PA-10) Sherwood
6 (NY-26) Reynolds
7 (IN-08) Hostettler
8 (IN-02) Chocola
9 (IA-01) Nussle*
10 (PA-06) Gerlach
Toss Up
11 (NY-24) Boehlert*
12 (NC-11) Taylor
13 (CT-02) Simmons
14 (IN-09) Sodrel
15 (KY-04) Davis
16 (IL-06) Hyde*
17 (PA-07) Weldon
18 (OH-15) Pryce
19 (NM-01) Wilson
20 (CT-04) Shays
21 (OH-18) Ney*
22 (VA-02) Drake <<
23 (WA-08) Reichert
24 (OH-01) Chabot
25 (WI-08) Green*
26 (FL-22) Shaw
Lean Republican
27 (MN-06) Kennedy*
28 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
29 (CT-05) Johnson
30 (NY-20) Sweeney
31 (FL-13) Harris*
32 (CO-04) Musgrave
33 (AZ-05) Hayworth
34 (OH-02) Schmidt
35 (WY-AL) Cubin
36 (NV-02) Gibbons*
37 (KY-03) Northup
38 (CA-11) Pombo
39 (NY-25) Walsh
40 (NV-03) Porter
41 (CO-05) Hefley*
42 (TX-23) Bonilla
Your list looks good. Any reason why TX-23 is back into Lean, other than Foley cash? His opponents still look as pathetic as ever.
Take a look at her picture on the website.
She's a bit of a hottie.
http://www.michelebachmann.com
Yes, the latest round of generic polls show both extremely demoralized Republicans and unusually energized Latino Democrats. That increases my confidence level of this seat going to a December runoff.
Zog's been unreliable this year -- on both sides.
I know who she is.
I guess KY-04 needs to be slightly lower on your list.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=c3f3ca8d-13b3-46ce-b6ac-484f3f30fb1f
I've always known this one would be close. If Bachmann wins though it'll probably be a safe seat from there on out. She's a good campainger at least and is not afraid to hit back. I sent her a check last week and encourage all other Freepers to do the same. You won't be sorry if she wins.
Didn't you have the Kolbe seat below numero uno before? :) From 9 or maybe 10, depending on the reading of the oddities coming out of Iowa, to about 23, I don't see much difference. Mix and match. About half of them will more likely than not go Dem however. I don't think the Dems will get much below 23 however, absent a big wave, maybe a couple.
Yes, definitely. I'm not sure how far yet, but I may drop KY-04 all the way to Lean GOP. You might recall that I've been skeptical about the Kentucky seats throughout the year, and have routinely had KY-03 and KY-02 rated below the CW. I suspect it's time for KY-04 to rejoin them (I had that one as well relatively 'underrated' for several months).
You don't have the Lewis of Kentucky seat in play? Shocking! Don't you read the buzz?
Yes, I had CO-07 in first place before the recent Mason-Dixon poll that put the margin at six, which I think is far more reasonable than the previous 11% Zogby margin or the 17% Survey USA outlier.
PS. I'll decide how far to drop KY-04 once I see the new C-D poll, assuming there's an update on that this week.
It's still quite an enigma to me why Charlie Cook has moved KY-02 into Lean GOP, but that's the only thing that has the seat hanging on by a thread in my rankings at #62. But deep down inside, I think NE-03 is more likely to switch parties....
Btw, I will be out of pocket and in Rome for the next 12 days getting a heavy dose of your former religion, and disengaged from American politics, probably near totally. Not that anyone will notice or care about my absence. Reality is a touch sister. :)
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