Posted on 10/03/2006 9:56:41 AM PDT by okstate
An Advocate/Greenwich Time poll shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Bridgeport, has a 4 percent lead over Democratic challenger Diane Farrell among likely voters in the hotly contested 4th Congressional District race.
The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, shows 44 percent of likely voters support Shays while 40 percent support Farrell.
Sixteen percent of likely voters polled in the 17 municipalities that comprise lower Fairfield County's 4th district said they remain undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at stamfordadvocate.com ...
Excellent. Every single vulnerable seat held steepens the climb the Democrats face.
There is entirely too much talk of parallels of 2006 to 1994. The FUNDAMENTAL reality is that in 1994 there were over 100 seats thought to be vulnerable. There are far fewer than that now.
The Democrats have to run the table to make this happen. Odds are against that happening.
How vulnerable? Who said they were vulnerable? At what point in 1994 was that said?
Shays will probably win. Farrell, as before, is running a terrible campaign. Half the people in the district don't know who she is.
It was nothing more that a liberal fantasy slowing being flushed down the toilet.
Not too bad, actually. Another poll out today also has Shays up by 5 (46%-41%), done by the University of Connecticut.
Also, released the other day by Public Opinion Strategies finds that Rep Rob Simmons of CT-2 leading 50%-36% over Courtney. If the DEMS don't win the CT races, their chances for a majority are greatly reduced.
That's THIS poll. "The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, shows 44 percent of likely voters support Shays while 40 percent support Farrell."
"Also, released the other day by Public Opinion Strategies finds that Rep Rob Simmons of CT-2 leading 50%-36% over Courtney."
Keep in mind... POS is a partisan pollster.
The ratio is actually about 90 Dem seats in 1994 and about 50 GOP seats in 2006. The biggest difference though is that the vulnerable Dem seats in 1994 tended to lean considerably more GOP than the vulnerable GOP seats in 2006 lean Dem. In other words, the Dems have to push against the inherent partisan nature of the districts much more so.
In any case, just going by the ratio, a reverse 1994 would net the Dems about 27 seats or so, and that's more than enough to take the House.
He makes Michael Bloomberg look like a supporter of the Second Amendment.
He opposes the Iraq war, insisting on cutting-and-running.
He has long supported government funded abortion-on-demand.
He actually authored the BPCFRA travesty (McCain just got the credit).
He is an anti-property rights environmental wacko extremist.
Shays supports gay "marriage".
He was one of Clinton's closest Congressional allies in the impeachment vote.
Do ultraliberals like Chafee and Shays really strengthen the GOP Caucus or do they weaken it from within?
>>
Do ultraliberals like Chafee and Shays really strengthen the GOP Caucus or do they weaken it from within?
>>
They strengthen the US Congress' conservative composite, and that is all that matters. If you wish to move the country to the right, your best place to attack is those far left of center. If you attack those in the middle, you leave the impression that those farther to the left have the right attitude.
Support Chaffee and Shays because they vote for a GOP Majority leader and Speaker -- which are the most important votes that any member of Congress casts in a given session. That particular vote determines the agenda of overall votes that take place.
Oppose and attack Pelosi and Hillary and Kennedy since they are far left and to leave them alone, acquiesces. Devote ALL of your time to those who most deserve the attack.
Bump!
do you want to holdthe House or not?
There will never and I mean never be any GOP member from CT who is anything but a RINO.
So if you want to lose Shays, you have to come up with a DEM seat that can go to a real conservative..I can think of fewer than 5.
Wow P.O.S is respected pollster Bill McCinturff who has been down on the GOP all year. This means Simmons is in really good shape. We must get it together in Indiana though.
P.O.S is not a partisan pollster because it co owned by Republican McInturff and Clinton Strategist Hart.
Bill McInturff was the pollster who leaked to Novak over the Summer about GOP doom. He is even considered by liberal CNN's Schnieder to be the best in the business.
Anit - GUV what you are selectively forgetting is that there were many more open seats on the DEM side in 1994.
How many competitve open seats are this year for the GOP?
So if the Iraq war is the death knell to Conn candidates then why is Lieberman trouncing Lamont? Lamont is from the same area in Conn as Shays correct?
I hope that Simmons poll is correct. He and his opponent have dueling ads every night during Jeopardy. ;) Has anyone seen the Joe Courtney ads? He looks too much like the comedian Larry David to be taken seriously.
If Shays, Simmons, and Nancy Johnson all survive that will be a step in the direction of holding the House. Gov Rell might win by about 60-40 so that will help. The 3 GOP US reps managed to win last time, despite Kerry winning the state by about 10 points.
well there were many more Dem retirements in 94 than R retirements in 06
we only knocked off a few incumbents in 94 the rest were all pickups of open seats
it was something like 100 seats in play back then to the 40 or so in play now
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