Defeat Defeatism!
Get out there and work for your candidate on election day!
Posted on 09/28/2006 1:22:34 PM PDT by okstate
Republican Reynolds Faces Strong Challenge in NY26 Rematch:
In an election in New York's 26th Congressional District today, 9/28/06, Republican incumbent Tom Reynolds and Democratic challenger Jack Davis are in a fierce fight, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WGRZ-TV Buffalo. 40 days to the 11/7/06 election, Reynolds gets 45%. Davis gets 43%. Green Party candidate Christine Murphy gets 8%.
This contest is a rematch of the 2004 election, when Reynolds, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, defeated Davis 56% to 44%. Reynolds gets 62% of Republican votes. Davis gets 64% of Democrat votes. 31% of Republicans, and 24% of Democrats, cross over to vote for the other party's candidate. Independents favor Davis by 12 points, but Green Party candidate Murphy gets 20% of the Independent vote.
Reynolds wins by 18 points among voters with household income under $40K. Davis leads by 5 points among voters with household income over $80K. Middle-income voters are evenly divided.
Filtering: 900 Registered Voters from New York's 26th Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 9/25/06 - 9/27/06. Of them, 491 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
Caution: On 9/26/06, while interviewing was being conducted for this poll, the Green Party candidacy of Christine Murphy was ruled invalid by the New York State Board of Elections. Therefore, the results of this poll may NOT be interpreted as a projection of the results in the 11/7/06 election. They represent the voters' preferences at the time the poll was taken.
SurveyUSA makes no forecast regarding the impact of Murphy's disqualification on the outcome of the contest. Future SurveyUSA polling for this contest will not offer Murphy as a ballot choice.
Detailed Crosstabs are available at the link
The topline results reflect the 491 Likely Voters. MOE +/- 4.5%
With the Green party candidate out wouldn't most of those votes go Dem?
You'd think so, but not always. A lot of them just don't vote. Sometimes they switch to other 3rd party candidates.. and some do end up voting Republican.
This is bad news. If Reynolds (the RCCC chair) loses, it'll be a virtual repeat of 1994, when we knocked off Speaker Tom Foley... i.e. very embarassing.
Reynolds is the RCCC chair? I didn't even make that connection.... what do you know about this district/race? Any validity to this poll or not from what you've heard?
Reynolds will win going away. No worries.
OTOH, Reynolds has been something of an embarassment as NRCC chair.
As for the Gerlach-Murphy poll -- it has a tiny sample size. A lot of posters here won't listen to a poll with a sample size N < 600. That Keystone Poll was sitting at 341. I think Gerlach is up right now, probably around 5 points (that's based on all polls over the last month or so and some other indicators).
Some posters have a personal problem with me, apparently, and enjoy stalking me from thread to thread. I just ignore them as they flounder under the weight of their own lies.
I am neither a Democrat nor a Republican. I am a conservative and an American.
okstate's been posting everything that comes down the pike from SurveyUSA, good and bad, and participating in discussions. It's been mostly bad the last few days but that can turn around. The good news polls, like those showing Bilirakis and Kline (MN) winning handily, don't attract much attention because they're expected to do well. Not that it makes their safety any less valuable with seats like this suddenly appearng competitive.
Survey USA was the 2nd or 3rd most accurate pollster in 2004 by a multitude of different measures, behind only Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen.
Gallup , Rasmussen, and Mason Dixon are all I look at.
Gallup's state polling has been atrocious recently (including missing TWO THIRDS of all state calls in 2004). That is an embarassing record and while their national polling may be better, that performance in '04 reflects poorly on the whole company.
I have no problem with Rasmussen or Mason-Dixon, though. I think Mason-Dixon is the best pollster, with Rasmussen and Survey USA tied for second (Survey USA gives much better internals - Rasmussen gives none). Quinnipiac and Strategic Vision are decent -- they lean a bit right. Research 2000 is decent but leans a bit left.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Yes that was a Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll. It's tough to know whether or not to believe partisan polls sometimes.
"VA 2nd is now safe for Thelma Drake, her opponent Rick Kellam was convicted of hitting a girl in his college days and lying about it."
Agreed, that should just about do it to keep Drake's seat safe.
"Heath Shuler owes about 70k in back taxes and is fading in the NC 11."
Hadn't heard this but it also sounds like good news.
1. Jack Davis is running on a platform of protectionism against jobs being exported overseas. While his ideas may be counterproductive (the last time people tried tariffs to help boost employment was the Great Depression), they resonate with voters in a district in one of the most economically depressed regions in the entire country.
2. Eliot Spitzer may have long coat-tails. It's going to be tough for any Republican in New York this year. Spitzer has a prohibitive lead against the GOP candidate, John Faso, so Republican turnout will quite likely be depressed. There really aren't any compelling Republicans running for statewide office.
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