Strickland Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Blackwell, Brown Holds Narrow Lead Over DeWine (Ohio)

University of Cincinnati ^ | 20 September 2006 | Eric W. Rademacher and Kimberly Downing

[okstate]

Cincinnati, OH--The first Ohio Poll of likely voters in 2006 finds U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland (D) leads Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) by 12 percentage points in the race for governor. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) leads U.S. Senator Mike DeWine (R) by four percentage points in the race for U.S. Senate.

These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. The Poll was conducted from September 7 through September 17, 2006. Interviews were not conducted on September 11, 2006.

[okstate]

OH Trendlines:
09-17 University of Cincinnati ... Brown +4
09-17 Quinnipiac ...................... Brown +1
09-14 Rasmussen ..................... Brown +6
08-27 Gallup ............................ Brown +6
08-22 Rasmussen ..................... Brown +3
08-07 Survey USA .................. Brown +8

[okstate]

U. of Cincinnati has DeWine down 4 in Ohio. Ping

[NeoCaveman]

12 is a lot less than 20.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

If Blackwell was down 20 in a previous University of Cincinnati poll and down only 12 here, it's a good sign of progress. Blackwell has recently begun television advertising, perhaps that accounts for it.

[CzarNicky]

Interesting they do not post the party breakdown in their numbers.

[Patrick1]

DeWine may win because Strickland is a nut. But he is currently being given an education on what happens to McCain Republicans.

[CzarNicky]

I'm more interested in the Blackwell race. Brown is too much of a dunce to be elected to much more than a Gerrymandered district.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

If DeWine is this close with all the problems he has had to date, I get a hunch that he will pull out a win.

[Rumple4]

Strickland is a nut but DeWine running against Brown who is also a nut, a plagiarizing one at that.

[NeoCaveman]

Interesting they do not post the party breakdown in their numbers.

Using their own numbers:
If they had done it 35R/35D/30I then it would be Strickland by 10.5% 47.5-37
It appears they did something like 30R/30D/40I or something close to that.

[WoodstockCat]

First real test is tonight..if after debate Blackwell hasn't moved..he's not going to move.

[drjimmy]

If Blackwell was down 20 in a previous University of Cincinnati poll and down only 12 here, it's a good sign of progress. Blackwell has recently begun television advertising, perhaps that accounts for it.

The more "likely" reason may be that this is a poll of "likely" voters, the first time the University of Cincinnati has limited its results to that segment of the population. I don't know if they previously polled "registered voters" or simply "adults," but in any case you cannot draw any trend lines comparing this result to previous results. The only thing of note is that using "likely" voters tends to be a more accurate predictor of actual results.

[reegs]

Although I'm not a great fan of Dewine, his advertising seems to be working. The slogan, "Sherrod Brown let us down" will stick in a lot of voters heads. While Blackwell's advertising is good at pointing out Strickland's weaknesses, he should adopt a similar slogan, something like "Vote against 'tax-em dead Ted."

[LS]

I just had lunch with a member of Ken's statewide steering committee. The internal polls show him a -5. That's exactly where I figured he was, in great shape, and perfectly poised to take advantage of voter turnout.

Folks, unfortunately terrorism, I think, is going to raise its ugly head again before November, and this is going to boost all, repeat, ALL, Republicans at every level.

Blackwell by about 1 in November.

[jmaroneps37]

Ok if you believe that Dewine is doing better in OHIO than Blackwell please raise your hand.... I'll wait..... I'm still waiting... Thank you Mr. Brown but you don't count.

[LS]

Brown leads by 4, with a 3.8% MOE. When you factor turnoug, DeWine wins by about 2.