Posted on 09/09/2006 11:46:56 PM PDT by okstate
The controversy surrounding U.S. Sen. George Allen’s campaign trail remarks in August has helped turn his re-election race into a close contest, according to a poll conducted for The Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers.
Allen, the Republican incumbent, leads Democrat Jim Webb by just 4 percentage points — 46 to 42 — in a survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Allen’s lead has diminished by 12 points since a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in July, even though Webb was barely seen on the campaign trail for much of the summer.
The erosion of Allen’s lead is largely because of negative publicity the senator received for remarks he made to a Webb campaign volunteer during an Aug. 11 rally in far Southwest Virginia. Allen directed his audience’s attention to the Webb volunteer, a college student of Indian descent, and twice called him “macaca.” The term is considered a racial slur in some cultures.
Allen apologized for his comments in public and in a personal phone call to the Webb volunteer. But the controversy appears to have had at least some effect on Allen’s support, according to the poll.
While most voters said the “macaca” comment did little to change their minds about the race, Allen’s unfavorable rating increased from 23 percent to 31 percent between July and September. The percentage of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to 12 percent, with Webb the apparent beneficiary of that shift. Webb’s support among black voters increased from 39 percent to 73 percent.
“It’s pretty easy to draw a straight line from that to the 'macaca,’ ” said Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll.
The results come from a telephone survey of 625 registered voters conducted Tuesday through Thursday. All of the poll’s participants indicated they are likely to vote in the Nov. 7 election. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Allen has a 9-point lead over Webb in Southwest and Southside Virginia and greater margins in the Shenandoah Valley and the Richmond area. But Webb holds a 13-point lead in vote-rich Northern Virginia, an area that was critical to the 2005 victory of Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine.
Allen, a former governor, began his campaign for a second Senate term getting national attention as a possible 2008 presidential candidate. He has enjoyed a sizable advantage in campaign finances and has been on statewide television for more than a week with ads promoting his candidacy.
Webb adviser Steve Jarding said the poll results suggest that Allen’s apparent advantages have been neutralized by the flap over his “macaca” comment and his association with President Bush, who remains unpopular in the state.
“I think Virginians saw a side of George Allen that they didn’t know, or didn’t think they knew, and it was pretty powerful,” Jarding said, referring to Allen’s videotaped comment to the Webb volunteer.
Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams acknowledged that the controversy contributed to the erosion of the incumbent’s lead, but argued that Allen remains in a strong position as the campaign enters the stretch run. Wadhams contrasted Allen’s busy August schedule of public appearances with Webb’s near absence from the campaign trail and predicted that Webb’s support will wane when he is drawn into debates over policy issues.
“This is still a race with an incumbent who knows who he is and knows what he believes in versus an opponent who has not taken a position on any major issues,” Wadhams said. “I can’t wait for the next 60 days.”
Just 42 percent of voters rated Bush’s job performance as “excellent” or “good,” while 41 percent gave the president a “poor” rating. Those numbers differ little from the July Mason-Dixon poll.
“It’s an ugly time to be an incumbent and especially an incumbent who is a rubber stamp for President Bush,” Jarding said.
Webb’s campaign treasury was nearly depleted during his campaign for the Democratic nomination, and he spent much of the summer trying to close the funding gap between himself and Allen. He skipped events on the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall campaign to spend time with his son Jimmy, a Marine lance corporal bound for duty in Iraq.
Wadhams called Webb’s decision to spend time with his son “perfectly understandable.” But the Democrat’s sporadic public appearances earlier in the summer raise questions, Wadhams said.
“It’s clear that our opponent does not like to be around people,” Wadhams said.
Webb, a decorated Vietnam veteran, served a brief stint as secretary of the Navy and in other defense-related posts during President Ronald Reagan’s administration. Webb’s first television ad, which will begin airing Monday, features footage of Reagan praising Webb. On Friday evening Nancy Reagan called on Webb to stop using the footage of her late husband in the campaign ad, saying doing so is “neither authorized nor appropriate.”
Allen’s campaign and some former Reagan administration officials also have denounced the ad, saying it dishonors Reagan’s memory.
Virginia trendlines:
September 7.... Allen +4 .... Mason-Dixon
August 18 ....... Allen +3 .... Survey USA
August 16 ....... Allen +5 .... Rasmussen
Mason-Dixon goes back to Virginia and finds Allen up 4. Thought you'd be interested
Between Allen and the attacks against the ABC 9/11 movie, people like me have had a bucket of cold water thrown in our face when it comes to thinking that the right had made huge gains in holding it's own against the media.
It turns out the MSM is still a giant that can destroy someone if they are determined to, and catch them early enough.
probably because the poll was framed something like this...
"Following Senator Allen using racial slur remarks against campaign workers, if the election were held today..."
Let's get serious, slam dunk for Allen. No wussies please!
(( ping ))
I do not think for one minute that Allen is a racist or was making a racist comment. The lying media saw their chance to slander a good man and they went after Allen for days. Sickening and unbelievable.
Without the media, I doubt the Demos could win a single election. Imagine if we actually had an unbaised media. If that miracle ever happened, the DNC would be out of business for good.
That people would even begin to associate maccacca with a racial slur is ridiculous. The kid, first of all, was an absolute jerk, a stalker, and looked like a freak. He deserved to get called every name in the books.
But beyond that, I'm supposed to believe that a Senator from Virginia is going to know the Latin name for a species of monkey in Asia and then know that in obscure Asian cultures, referring to someone with this name is considered a racial insult?
The media ran with this garbage, and they ran hard. It's amazing that this got ANY airtime.
Agreed.
Mason Dixon, along with Rass, are decent polls. Unlike say Zogby who came up with a ridiculous result, as per his usual. Consider this Allen's low point. The fact he polls still above the challenger is good news, and unlikely a Dem pickup.
Amazing? Hey, remember Valerie Plame and Joe Wilson!
A softball tournament for 12-16 year olds is not an appropriate political venue. He looked like a jerk and everyone I heard commenting on it agreed it was right for the organizers to get him out of there.
"Thought you'd be interested."
Thanks very much!
: )
I have trouble believing that Allen using a supposed racially tinted word that nobody even knows the meaning of (I had never heard of the word before) has actually hurt him that bad.
Anyhow, I'm sure he'll pull it out, but this certainly is distressing. That said, if he pulls it out, it'll be good in one sense: While I liked Allen initially, I've become more and more convinced he isn't national material. I think this proves it. Better to know that now then after he's gotten the nomination.
Well, the big problem is that Virginia is next door to Washington, D.C., and the national media is ALWAYS looking for excuses to portray Americans as fascist and/or racist. So they're always on the prowl for gaffes like this.
Northern Virginia is comprised of people whose lives center inside The Beltway, not on their localities. It's a string of liberal 'Rat cities and RINO suburbs. If those areas continue to grow at their current rate, we may see a day when conservatives will have a very difficult time winning statewide races in VA.
Never heard of this word before.
Wonder what would happen if the "Reverend" Al Sharepton used this term?
Hmm. 3 weeks ago people were convinced that Allen's very narrow lead was merely a macaca "dip", but this poll seems to indicate that the macaca effect could be here to stay. Webb is still generally unknown to a decent portion of the electorate and is airing an ad starting next week that shows Reagan deeply praising him. Allen needs to find a way to respond so that he doesn't suddenly find Webb with higher favorables than him (notice that Allen's favorable/unfavorable ratio is down to 41-31 in this poll).
Allen still holds a slight advantage, but he's going to have a real campaign on his hands, whereas a couple months ago I suspect he thought he was gonna coast.
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