Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Hurricane Florence update
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200606.disc.html#a_topad | NHC Via Wunderground

Posted on 09/03/2006 1:44:19 PM PDT by nwctwx



TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: florence; hurricaneseason2006; tropical; weather
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 81-100101-120121-140 ... 581-582 next last
To: C210N
And don't forget the suicidal polar bears. No telling when they might use a suicide belt while they do the deed...

There was a recent article in the MSM that said polar bears' testicles were shrinking due to global warming. You would be suicidal too.

101 posted on 09/03/2006 6:33:35 PM PDT by Soliton (Alone with everyone else.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Soliton
There was a recent article in the MSM that said polar bears' testicles were shrinking due to global warming. You would be suicidal too.

Actually, anyone who goes around measuring polar bear testicles probably has a suicidal streak.

102 posted on 09/03/2006 6:36:28 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 101 | View Replies]

To: Soliton

And they know this how?

I suppose there's always someone out there willing to take risks like that for the adrenalin rush. I can think of easier ways to die.


103 posted on 09/03/2006 6:45:13 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 101 | View Replies]

To: Sam Cree

See post 103. The computer models are not so reassuring.


104 posted on 09/03/2006 6:49:43 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 58 | View Replies]

To: Fawn
Note to self: KEEP GAS TANK FULL AT ALL TIMES DURING HURRICANE SEASON

I got into that habit after we got basically marooned after the Northridge earthquake (not an easy task when I had a post-quake commute that turned into four hours each way, since we lived on the "wrong side" of the freeway overpass collapse)....that - and I stress this on all threads of this variety - KEEP SOME GREEN CASH MONEY on hand!! Cash is king when there's no power, and if there's a bit of chaos.

105 posted on 09/03/2006 6:52:39 PM PDT by ErnBatavia (Meep Meep)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: metmom
I didn't see the computer models in post 103, but you are right, they are scary. I never like it when storms make an end run around our blockers, Hispaniola and Cuba.


106 posted on 09/03/2006 7:45:06 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Don't mix alcopops and ufo's)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies]

To: Dog Gone
Right now it doesn't look like a GOM threat, but it's way too early to predict the track. Ernesto cured me of that.

Well, I've got nothing to lose (or to gain) for refraining from predicting this:
I'm going to say that, just like ol'TC Ernie, Madam Flo will bend further north from the early predicted paths, and continue to bend north until it blows out in the Atlantic - similar to the historical storms of Post#48. (However, I do recall getting rather drenched by Fran'96...)

107 posted on 09/03/2006 8:16:29 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 69 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx
Here is advisory 2 as of 1100 EDT 000
WTNT31 KNHC 040228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1395 MILES...2245 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...14.8 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

108 posted on 09/03/2006 8:22:55 PM PDT by Clive
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sam Cree; NautiNurse; Dog Gone; Howlin; dirtboy; All
Note that the 5 day cone now bends to the south toward the Greater Antilles.

When the image was posted by Sam Cree it was pointing directly toward North Carolina. Now it is pointing toward southern Florida.

109 posted on 09/03/2006 8:29:13 PM PDT by Clive
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx

This is pretty weird:

The NHC is apparently not giving the same credence to the SHIPS intensity modelling that they gave TC'Ernie. (Unless I'm really interpreting this wrong - I'm pretty sure SHIPS is SHF5 here):

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
(Note: these images change every few hours... the run I'm trying to show is 0000Z on 4Sep.)

SHIPS was the ONLY model that had Ernie going into Cat.3 for any period of time, and many of the others barely touched hurricane. Here, SHIPS doesn't even get TC Flo out of the TS level...

I wonder why the NHC is saying "hurricane" now?

But the track predictions are showing pretty solidly tracking during the next four days from here (40W 15N) to 58W 22N.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png


110 posted on 09/03/2006 8:31:49 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 80 | View Replies]

To: Sam Cree

Is this a Cape Verde storm?

They do have the history of being the strongest.


111 posted on 09/03/2006 8:36:42 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Crist!!! Next Governor of Florida!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 106 | View Replies]

To: AFPhys

Ah Ha:

Here are links to those images that won't change:
Track: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL06_06090400.png

Intensity:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/intensity_AAL06_06090400.png


112 posted on 09/03/2006 8:39:27 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 110 | View Replies]

To: MonroeDNA; nwctwx
"Is this a Cape Verde storm"

I am pretty sure that the wave from which this has grown came fromm roughly that area, so I guess that qualifies it as a Cape Verde storm. Some of the others who are more knowledgable, like nwctwx, can tell you if I'm right, though.

113 posted on 09/03/2006 8:41:42 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Don't mix alcopops and ufo's)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 111 | View Replies]

To: Sam Cree

Looks like everyone else here has decided to go to bed early and store up some sleep for the days ahead.

I'm going to join them there. 'nighty nite...


114 posted on 09/03/2006 8:44:37 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 113 | View Replies]

To: AFPhys

See you tomorrow...hope you are right about where this thing will go.


115 posted on 09/03/2006 8:49:55 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Don't mix alcopops and ufo's)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 114 | View Replies]

To: Sam Cree

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane

Storms that originate near Cape Verde, historically, are the strongest, and usually show up this time (and later).

Andrew was one. So was the worst--Okeechobee.

Not raising an alarm or anything. Just learning from the great teachers here.

And the odds are I'm wrong, anyway.


116 posted on 09/03/2006 9:05:56 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Crist!!! Next Governor of Florida!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 113 | View Replies]

To: MonroeDNA

Yep, I'll never forget Andrew.

I wonder if the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 was a Cape Verde...I have a feeling that it was.


117 posted on 09/03/2006 9:13:42 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Don't mix alcopops and ufo's)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 116 | View Replies]

To: AFPhys
The NHC is apparently not giving the same credence to the SHIPS intensity modelling that they gave TC'Ernie.

Well, given that SHIPS had Ernesto reaching mid-Cat-1 intensity 24 hours into landfall on the Carolinas, I can see why forecasters just might be having second thoughts about it.

118 posted on 09/03/2006 9:41:52 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 110 | View Replies]

To: Sam Cree
The Great Labor Day hurricane probably formed from a wave off the coast of Africa, but it really wasn't much of a storm until it got into the Bahamas:

And three hurricanes from last year (Katrina, Rita and Wilma) made the top six in intensity, and none were Cape Verde storms.

119 posted on 09/03/2006 10:08:01 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 117 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

I knew I was over my head here.


120 posted on 09/03/2006 10:49:37 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Crist!!! Next Governor of Florida!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 119 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 81-100101-120121-140 ... 581-582 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson