Posted on 09/03/2006 1:44:19 PM PDT by nwctwx
There was a recent article in the MSM that said polar bears' testicles were shrinking due to global warming. You would be suicidal too.
Actually, anyone who goes around measuring polar bear testicles probably has a suicidal streak.
And they know this how?
I suppose there's always someone out there willing to take risks like that for the adrenalin rush. I can think of easier ways to die.
See post 103. The computer models are not so reassuring.
I got into that habit after we got basically marooned after the Northridge earthquake (not an easy task when I had a post-quake commute that turned into four hours each way, since we lived on the "wrong side" of the freeway overpass collapse)....that - and I stress this on all threads of this variety - KEEP SOME GREEN CASH MONEY on hand!! Cash is king when there's no power, and if there's a bit of chaos.
Well, I've got nothing to lose (or to gain) for refraining from predicting this:
I'm going to say that, just like ol'TC Ernie, Madam Flo will bend further north from the early predicted paths, and continue to bend north until it blows out in the Atlantic - similar to the historical storms of Post#48. (However, I do recall getting rather drenched by Fran'96...)
...DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1395 MILES...2245 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...14.8 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
When the image was posted by Sam Cree it was pointing directly toward North Carolina. Now it is pointing toward southern Florida.
This is pretty weird:
The NHC is apparently not giving the same credence to the SHIPS intensity modelling that they gave TC'Ernie. (Unless I'm really interpreting this wrong - I'm pretty sure SHIPS is SHF5 here):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
(Note: these images change every few hours... the run I'm trying to show is 0000Z on 4Sep.)
SHIPS was the ONLY model that had Ernie going into Cat.3 for any period of time, and many of the others barely touched hurricane. Here, SHIPS doesn't even get TC Flo out of the TS level...
I wonder why the NHC is saying "hurricane" now?
But the track predictions are showing pretty solidly tracking during the next four days from here (40W 15N) to 58W 22N.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Is this a Cape Verde storm?
They do have the history of being the strongest.
Ah Ha:
Here are links to those images that won't change:
Track: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL06_06090400.png
Intensity:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/intensity_AAL06_06090400.png
I am pretty sure that the wave from which this has grown came fromm roughly that area, so I guess that qualifies it as a Cape Verde storm. Some of the others who are more knowledgable, like nwctwx, can tell you if I'm right, though.
Looks like everyone else here has decided to go to bed early and store up some sleep for the days ahead.
I'm going to join them there. 'nighty nite...
See you tomorrow...hope you are right about where this thing will go.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane
Storms that originate near Cape Verde, historically, are the strongest, and usually show up this time (and later).
Andrew was one. So was the worst--Okeechobee.
Not raising an alarm or anything. Just learning from the great teachers here.
And the odds are I'm wrong, anyway.
Yep, I'll never forget Andrew.
I wonder if the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 was a Cape Verde...I have a feeling that it was.
Well, given that SHIPS had Ernesto reaching mid-Cat-1 intensity 24 hours into landfall on the Carolinas, I can see why forecasters just might be having second thoughts about it.
And three hurricanes from last year (Katrina, Rita and Wilma) made the top six in intensity, and none were Cape Verde storms.
I knew I was over my head here.
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