Posted on 09/03/2006 1:44:19 PM PDT by nwctwx
the area of low pressure midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has a broad closed circulation and enough convective organization to Garner Dvorak classification of t2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Consequently...advisories are initiated on a tropical depression. Buoy 41026 reported 32 kt winds late this morning...although they have since decreased...and this is the basis for the advisory intensity of 30 kt.
The center of circulation is difficult to see...and there may be multiple swirls rotating around a common center. The initial motion is therefore uncertain but estimated to be 305/12. A strong mid-latitude trough is northwest of the depression...and this weakness should allow the present motion to continue...with some decrease in forward speed...for the next day or two. After that...global models forecast that the trough will lift out...with high pressure building eastward to the north of the cyclone. This pattern is expected to Bend the track back to the left towards the end of the forecast period. Track guidance models are in general agreement on this scenario...although with great differences in forward speed. The official forecast leans toward the faster motion of the GFDL and BAM models...with the UKMET and ECMWF being considerably slower. With convection over a broad area and the presence of multiple swirls...it is not clear exactly where the center will consolidate. There is some chance the center could consolidate to the north of the current track and be more influenced by the central Atlantic trough.
There is some southwesterly shear to the northwest of the cyclone...and this could limit development over the next couple of days. After the trough lifts out...the environment should become more favorable for development and both the SHIPS and GFDL guidance bring the depression to hurricane strength. The official forecast is a blend of the numbers from these two models.
Should I be worried? I'm in Chicago.
ping
Probably not.
Oh boy. Here we go again.
This should be worth a couple of dollars on the price of oil.
I was reading on UW last night that there are two disturbed areas out there that they are watching.
The 24/7 media holds it's breath yeat again.
Gas and Oil continue to fall.
Yes you should. That's where the south is going to send the next batch of evacuees:')
Of course. But the greatest threat to you is wondering ice floes fleeing from the global warming in the Arctic. Large masses of killer ice along with rabid polar bears and psychotic bull seals have been spotted in the Toronto suburbs. They are expected to reach the Great Lakes in just a few days. Residents of Chicago are advised to take all necessary precautions. If you should spot one of these killer ice floes, do not attempt to confront it yourself. Call the nearest NWS swat team and advise them of its position. They will deal with the deadly menace.
At least the models current have TD 6 hitting New Delhi in five days.
RUN! RUN! RUUUUUUUUUN!
Hmmmm....
Ping to watch this one.
We have a good group of storm watchers here. Congrats to all who contribute!!
Oops,sorry! I thought this was a thread about the MSM's state of mind after Ernesto fizzled.(Tropical depression)
:::::::::sigh::::::; guess I won't take the plywood off the windows yet...bwahahahahaha!
Lex in Jacksonville
Yeah well I'm in Port St. Lucie and we've gotten hit three times in two years. 6 hours of the eye twice and once with just 8 hours of 126m.p,h, instead of 18 hoursof a hurricane
This last one that blew apart was just a trial run.
Jeb Bush and the emergency folks in Fla have done a wonderful job but so have the folks of Florida, not waiting for the govt. to do for them like N.O. Welfare freaks.
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