the area of low pressure midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has a broad closed circulation and enough convective organization to Garner Dvorak classification of t2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Consequently...advisories are initiated on a tropical depression. Buoy 41026 reported 32 kt winds late this morning...although they have since decreased...and this is the basis for the advisory intensity of 30 kt.
The center of circulation is difficult to see...and there may be multiple swirls rotating around a common center. The initial motion is therefore uncertain but estimated to be 305/12. A strong mid-latitude trough is northwest of the depression...and this weakness should allow the present motion to continue...with some decrease in forward speed...for the next day or two. After that...global models forecast that the trough will lift out...with high pressure building eastward to the north of the cyclone. This pattern is expected to Bend the track back to the left towards the end of the forecast period. Track guidance models are in general agreement on this scenario...although with great differences in forward speed. The official forecast leans toward the faster motion of the GFDL and BAM models...with the UKMET and ECMWF being considerably slower. With convection over a broad area and the presence of multiple swirls...it is not clear exactly where the center will consolidate. There is some chance the center could consolidate to the north of the current track and be more influenced by the central Atlantic trough.
There is some southwesterly shear to the northwest of the cyclone...and this could limit development over the next couple of days. After the trough lifts out...the environment should become more favorable for development and both the SHIPS and GFDL guidance bring the depression to hurricane strength. The official forecast is a blend of the numbers from these two models.
Should I be worried? I'm in Chicago.
ping
This should be worth a couple of dollars on the price of oil.
I was reading on UW last night that there are two disturbed areas out there that they are watching.
The 24/7 media holds it's breath yeat again.
Hmmmm....
Ping to watch this one.
We have a good group of storm watchers here. Congrats to all who contribute!!
Oops,sorry! I thought this was a thread about the MSM's state of mind after Ernesto fizzled.(Tropical depression)
This depression is minor compared to the depression in the liberal MSM over the lackluster hurricane season they have been reporting on. Maybe this will cheer them up a little.
I predict this one will reach category 3, and make it into the gulf of mexico.
The media is desperate for a real storm to cover. On the other hand, if we had a major storm they might stop talking about Katrina for five minutes.
To me, it doesn't look like much of a threat to the US. Maybe Bermuda.
More of the same....
What is the name of this thing
Gotta have a name
crap!
Should I be worried?...(east coast of Florida)
On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> 
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Looks like Bush/Cheney have fired up their hurricane machine. . probably have the dynamite already strapped on the trained dolphins!