[AFPhys]

This is pretty weird:

The NHC is apparently not giving the same credence to the SHIPS intensity modelling that they gave TC'Ernie. (Unless I'm really interpreting this wrong - I'm pretty sure SHIPS is SHF5 here):

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
(Note: these images change every few hours... the run I'm trying to show is 0000Z on 4Sep.)

SHIPS was the ONLY model that had Ernie going into Cat.3 for any period of time, and many of the others barely touched hurricane. Here, SHIPS doesn't even get TC Flo out of the TS level...

I wonder why the NHC is saying "hurricane" now?

But the track predictions are showing pretty solidly tracking during the next four days from here (40W 15N) to 58W 22N.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

[AFPhys]

Ah Ha:

Here are links to those images that won't change:
Track: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL06_06090400.png

Intensity:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/intensity_AAL06_06090400.png

[dirtboy]

The NHC is apparently not giving the same credence to the SHIPS intensity modelling that they gave TC'Ernie.

Well, given that SHIPS had Ernesto reaching mid-Cat-1 intensity 24 hours into landfall on the Carolinas, I can see why forecasters just might be having second thoughts about it.