Posted on 09/03/2006 8:27:24 AM PDT by FairOpinion
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate.
President George W. Bush's low approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, gas prices and the country's direction threaten Republican leadership in Congress and put Democrats within reach of victory on November 7, analysts said.
"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."
All 435 House seats, 34 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November's election, with Democrats needing to pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.
Strategists in both parties say the glum public mood has created a strong desire for change and given Democrats a big advantage at the traditional opening of the campaign season on Monday's Labor Day holiday.
"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."
History is also with Democrats -- the party holding the White House traditionally loses seats in a president's sixth year. The modern exception was 1998, when public unhappiness over the Republican-led impeachment of President Bill Clinton helped Democrats gain five House seats.
"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."
A Democratic majority in even one chamber of Congress would slam the brakes on what is left of Bush's second-term legislative agenda and hasten his descent into lame-duck status in the final two years of his presidency.
It also would give Democrats an opportunity to hold hearings and investigate many of the administration's more controversial foreign, military and energy policy decisions.
Candidates around the country will spend Monday's Labor Day holiday marching in parades, shaking hands at fairs and laying the groundwork for the final two-month push to the November 7 election.
KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
About 40 House districts and a dozen Senate seats will be the key battlegrounds, and they will be flooded in the next two months with campaign cash and appearances by party big shots.
Democrats are in the strongest position in the House, analysts said, where nearly every endangered incumbent is Republican. Independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg projects a Democratic gain of 15-20 seats, while the Cook Report lists 17 House seats as toss-ups -- all Republican.
But Republican House campaign spokesman Carl Forti shrugged off predictions of a takeover.
"We're nowhere near as bad off as the experts would have you believe," he said, adding Bush's low ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress would not determine House races.
In the Senate, Democrats are expected to pick up seats. But to win control they will need to bump off at least five Republican incumbents -- difficult but not impossible even under favorable conditions.
In recent polls, Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Jim Talent in Missouri, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and George Allen in Virginia also face re-election struggles.
The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist is also on the endangered list for Republicans.
Democratic incumbents Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Menendez in New Jersey face potentially tough races, and Democrats must defend open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.
Many voters do not start paying attention until late in the campaign and many candidates only start spending heavily in September, giving the races plenty of chances to shift before the election.
Unexpected events, like the capture of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or a major terrorist strike, could quickly shift the political landscape.
"I'm a political realist. Can we win? Yes, but this is 10 weeks out and a lot can happen in 10 weeks," said House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.
Reagan never had a GOP controlled house. He did have a GOP controlled Senate for some of his Presidency.
I wish they'd throw us some more poll numbers in some of these races. They keeping saying Republicans like Chris Chocola, Thelma Drake, Steve Chabot, and Deborah Pryce are in trouble, but they don't show the polling. Not too long ago they were salivating over knocking off John Sweeney in New York, and the latest poll showed him up by twenty! Not to mention I haven't seen a single poll on the Clay Shaw race, which is supposedly ripe for Dem takeover, right? Bleh. Maybe I don't have the evidence these analysts have, but color me skeptical.
He did great on NBC- meet the press despite russert fawning over casey...russet's first book was "Big Luke" about his father....his second book should "big dickhead" an autobiography!!!
Apparently this author wrote this article 2-3 months ago and then pulled it out without fact checking the current environment. :-)
Yeah. My point was that he signed an amnesty bill into law. That's treason, as defined on this thread.
A democrat-controlled Congress would hand President Bush ......Like they handed Ronald Reagan the amnesty he wanted?
Get it? They/they = Dem-controlled congress. I never mentioned or referenced Republican-controlled congress in my response.
And there is no poll data on the Irey/Murtha race.
Political office seems to be the only place they don't want to cut and run...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
They're just putting a finger up in the air to see how "Let's Roll!" plays with the American Public.
I think Novak said that race has become a tossup. If so, it wouldn't surprise me if the Democrats are trying to hide it from public view.
Frankly, I am sticking by my call for gains in both Houses because I believe that the issue this Fall is national security. The left will try to make it something else but they cannot because if you are dead, nothing else matters.
The race is only now about to begin in earnest from the right. Meanwhile the left has already blown their entire game plan and made themselves look petty and foolish, not to mention weak on the nations security. What Rove needs to do, and I firmly believe he will, is exploit the weaknesses of the left on national security using the mega bytes of left wing verbal diarrhea available to him. They have the money and only need to spread the truth, using the Democrats own words and the loony left will again taste disappointment.
The seeds of the demise of the left, as a viable political Party were sown when one of their own, AL Gore, invented the Internet. LOL, talk about unintended consequences
My views on each of those races mentioned:
Allen: re-election by about 6 points
Burns: defeated due to scandals by about 5 points
Chafee: he will lose the primary and the GOP candidate will get demolished in the election by about 35 points
DeWine: re-election by about 2 points
Santorum: re-election by less than 1 point
Talent: re-election by about 5 points
Open TN seat: GOP hold by about 8 points
Cantwell: defeated by about 2 points due to third-party split
Menendez: re-election by about 7 points
Stabenow: re-election by about 3 points
Open MD seat: Dem hold by about 10 points
Open MN seat: GOP pickup by about 2 points
Swing in the Senate: GOP 55 (NC), Dem 43 (-1), Ind 2 (+1)
Explain, please.
In "libspeak", in trouble means that he is leading his Democratic opponent by less then 15 points.
I voted conservative in the primaries for the most part, but in one race I voted for the candidate that WILL win the seat for the GOP... he may be less conservative than candidate X but in Oklahoma that's still very conservative compared to blue state GOP candidates. I very happy with the Oklahoma GOP and look forward to their continued leadership in Washington.
The RNC running ads of the Democrats using their own words will do incalculable damage to the left. Just one example is Harry Reid's "We killed the Patriot Act" comment. There are many many more.
And 1998 and 1996. This happens every election cycle like clockwork. [Note: 1994 was an exception year that so bad for the Rats that even the media couldn't fool anyone.]
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