Posted on 09/03/2006 8:27:24 AM PDT by FairOpinion
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate.
President George W. Bush's low approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, gas prices and the country's direction threaten Republican leadership in Congress and put Democrats within reach of victory on November 7, analysts said.
"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."
All 435 House seats, 34 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November's election, with Democrats needing to pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.
Strategists in both parties say the glum public mood has created a strong desire for change and given Democrats a big advantage at the traditional opening of the campaign season on Monday's Labor Day holiday.
"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."
History is also with Democrats -- the party holding the White House traditionally loses seats in a president's sixth year. The modern exception was 1998, when public unhappiness over the Republican-led impeachment of President Bill Clinton helped Democrats gain five House seats.
"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."
A Democratic majority in even one chamber of Congress would slam the brakes on what is left of Bush's second-term legislative agenda and hasten his descent into lame-duck status in the final two years of his presidency.
It also would give Democrats an opportunity to hold hearings and investigate many of the administration's more controversial foreign, military and energy policy decisions.
Candidates around the country will spend Monday's Labor Day holiday marching in parades, shaking hands at fairs and laying the groundwork for the final two-month push to the November 7 election.
KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
About 40 House districts and a dozen Senate seats will be the key battlegrounds, and they will be flooded in the next two months with campaign cash and appearances by party big shots.
Democrats are in the strongest position in the House, analysts said, where nearly every endangered incumbent is Republican. Independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg projects a Democratic gain of 15-20 seats, while the Cook Report lists 17 House seats as toss-ups -- all Republican.
But Republican House campaign spokesman Carl Forti shrugged off predictions of a takeover.
"We're nowhere near as bad off as the experts would have you believe," he said, adding Bush's low ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress would not determine House races.
In the Senate, Democrats are expected to pick up seats. But to win control they will need to bump off at least five Republican incumbents -- difficult but not impossible even under favorable conditions.
In recent polls, Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Jim Talent in Missouri, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and George Allen in Virginia also face re-election struggles.
The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist is also on the endangered list for Republicans.
Democratic incumbents Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Menendez in New Jersey face potentially tough races, and Democrats must defend open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.
Many voters do not start paying attention until late in the campaign and many candidates only start spending heavily in September, giving the races plenty of chances to shift before the election.
Unexpected events, like the capture of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or a major terrorist strike, could quickly shift the political landscape.
"I'm a political realist. Can we win? Yes, but this is 10 weeks out and a lot can happen in 10 weeks," said House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.
Well abu ghraib didn't bring down Bush, and look at what dan rather is doing these days.
al-Reuters propaganda
Sorry, but based on what? Forget about this crap by Reuters. Even in the local media outlets where these close races are being fought, practically every single indicator is that of a Republican in an uphill fight. That is to say, even if all politics, trends, national mood, history etc. were to be disregarded, just based on statistics alone (i.e. technical analysis), one would have to give the Dems a huge advantage.
If the Democraps win as big as their buddies in the MSM have been shouting from the rooftops the GOP has no one to blame but themselves.Since 94 they've had at least part if not all the control of Congress and what have they done? Did they give us a smaller government,less spending, real comprehensive inroads in education to the white elephant public school system, strong direction on dealing with illegal immigration? The war on terror and disasters like hurricane Katrina didn't help their cause but the truth is these people fell flat on their faces on a lot of domestic issues that matter to their base !!!
Gas prices $3.10 a gallon GOP loses 25
$3.00 a gallon GOP loses 20
$2.75 a gallon GOP loses 15
$2.50 a gallon GOP loses 10
$2.25 a gallon GOP loses 5
$2.10 a gallon is a psychological relief point and GOP will actually gain 5
All prices based on National Retail Average.
"Bring down Bush" is a false standard. Nothing will "bring down Bush", not even impeachment, unless he is removed by the Senate. Abu Ghraib put the entire administration on the defensive, and the anti-war crowd on the offensive.
I love how the media have the Dems always "reclaiming" Congress, while the Republicans "take" Congress.
The more the MSM liberal left declares victory in Nov. the more the GOP base is energized.
While the 'pubs' have been doing whats best for us as a country, NOW that elections are just around the corner, see how aggressive the Dem's become in getting things done for the election.
We must get out the vote and keep voter fraud down. The dead are already voting early in Philadelphia and Florida, I'm sure.
Yes, I do believe that those who vote Dem hate America.
There will be a Civil War II before WWIII.
The abu gharib brouhaha came out during a Presidential election year, July 2004, and Bush was not voted out.
abu gharib may have worked to bring down a President in the years say 68-00, but the liberal MSM's tactics did not work in 04.
Yes, dead or alive....
If President Bush is impeached by the House then it means impeachment is just a norm for any future President and is no more than a House vote of no confidence. The Senate won't remove from office a President with less than 2 years left because for them their vote would be more of a political suicide than for the President.
Like they handed Ronald Reagan the amnesty he wanted?
This is the first time I've ever seen action Ronald Reagan took called treasonous here. Oh, except it wasn't treeason when REAGAN did it...
"Why would Americans vote for those who hate America?"
Because the media tells them to (in so many ways), and most Americans, it seems are so dumbed down, they believe the lies!
That seems to be true, but the GOP Senators need to start working - they can lose this election if they really work at it.
I am already seeing vicious editorials in the very very lib Dayton Daily putting Blackwell in a bad light - these guys need to respond an do it loudly and firmly.
It is their election to lose -
Would you tell us more about how these numbers were calculated?
One thing, survival!!! If the GOP and the POTUS let Americans how weak the Democrat party is on fighting our enemies, the American people will do what they did in 2004, and vote for the party that will protect them, their families and their children. How quick we forget that in August, September of 2004 GW Bush was history by the word of the MSM. A little nudge from the Swift Boat Vets and GW got 60M votes and beat the retard,elitist John Kerry by three million votes. What needs to happen is that folks like some of the bitching Freepers here better wake up and forget their differences with the Pubbies for the moment. I agreee some pubbies are as useless as cheese on the moom, but the real danger comes from the Democrat party. And....you all better realize it, because your lives and freedom is at stake. Bill Clinton did not protect you and America, and....neither will the current Democrat Party!!!
I'm not that worried. Even with a strong anti-incumbent mood, voters have always tended to take the devil they know, sticking with the incumbent unless the challengers give them something to vote for. In parallel elections in 1980 and 2004, Republicans had a strong, optimistic, pro-America agenda that resonated with voters. The Democrats are not strong, optimistic, or pro-America. I expect the Democrats to regurgitate the same old loser bromides. It hasn't worked before so why will it now?
However, I still think it's better for us to be paranoid. I'm disappointed in the Republicans on many fronts, but I know the Democrats will be much, much worse. I live in California; I know what Democrats will do when they get power. Tax and spend, then tax and spend some more. On a national level, it'll be tax, spend, appease and surrender. This cannot be allowed to happen!
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