Posted on 09/03/2006 8:27:24 AM PDT by FairOpinion
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate.
President George W. Bush's low approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, gas prices and the country's direction threaten Republican leadership in Congress and put Democrats within reach of victory on November 7, analysts said.
"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."
All 435 House seats, 34 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November's election, with Democrats needing to pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.
Strategists in both parties say the glum public mood has created a strong desire for change and given Democrats a big advantage at the traditional opening of the campaign season on Monday's Labor Day holiday.
"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."
History is also with Democrats -- the party holding the White House traditionally loses seats in a president's sixth year. The modern exception was 1998, when public unhappiness over the Republican-led impeachment of President Bill Clinton helped Democrats gain five House seats.
"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."
A Democratic majority in even one chamber of Congress would slam the brakes on what is left of Bush's second-term legislative agenda and hasten his descent into lame-duck status in the final two years of his presidency.
It also would give Democrats an opportunity to hold hearings and investigate many of the administration's more controversial foreign, military and energy policy decisions.
Candidates around the country will spend Monday's Labor Day holiday marching in parades, shaking hands at fairs and laying the groundwork for the final two-month push to the November 7 election.
KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
About 40 House districts and a dozen Senate seats will be the key battlegrounds, and they will be flooded in the next two months with campaign cash and appearances by party big shots.
Democrats are in the strongest position in the House, analysts said, where nearly every endangered incumbent is Republican. Independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg projects a Democratic gain of 15-20 seats, while the Cook Report lists 17 House seats as toss-ups -- all Republican.
But Republican House campaign spokesman Carl Forti shrugged off predictions of a takeover.
"We're nowhere near as bad off as the experts would have you believe," he said, adding Bush's low ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress would not determine House races.
In the Senate, Democrats are expected to pick up seats. But to win control they will need to bump off at least five Republican incumbents -- difficult but not impossible even under favorable conditions.
In recent polls, Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Jim Talent in Missouri, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and George Allen in Virginia also face re-election struggles.
The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist is also on the endangered list for Republicans.
Democratic incumbents Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Menendez in New Jersey face potentially tough races, and Democrats must defend open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.
Many voters do not start paying attention until late in the campaign and many candidates only start spending heavily in September, giving the races plenty of chances to shift before the election.
Unexpected events, like the capture of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or a major terrorist strike, could quickly shift the political landscape.
"I'm a political realist. Can we win? Yes, but this is 10 weeks out and a lot can happen in 10 weeks," said House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.
Democrats have big plans if they take over in Congress
The stakes are high. I am not exaggerating, when I say, that our very lives may depend on it -- the Dems are weak on terror, and the terrorists know it and it will embolden them. The Dems will prevent President Bush from using the proven methods to discover and foil terror attacks.
Turnout will be critical. It's up to each and every one of us to face reality, get out the vote and
Libs everywhere will be ringing the bells, saying they are the winners, and again they will go down in defeat....
The American People are better informed than they used to be; they don't have to listen to MSM and basis newspapers and magazines any more...they have the internet, talk radio, other places to get information...
Nope, the libs are going down in defeat again.....
Why would Americans vote for those who hate America?
more tripe from Al'Rooters
Because MOST polling is now showing a dim retreat (as people start to pay attention), we are seeing many of these "our side is really winning" articles from the left.
This tactic has manifested itself over-and-over during the last few National Elections. Same-old-same-old from the party of the same old s***.
LLS
Where have I heard this before? Give me a second, Oh yea! in 2000, 2002, 2004........
So am I just cheering for team GOP? I could be ambivalent and learn to love the Democrats, but then I think about Pelosi, Reid, Conyer et al., and they scare me.
This country was made great by capitalism and the "unblinking one" was once a member of the House socialist caucus as Conyers still is.
And what is Conyer's shtrick? Our next would-be Judiciary committee chairman's all consuming passion is pay back for Clinton's impeachment. He's already held a Bush mock impeachment hearing
Reid's claim that "we killed the Patriot Act" threatens my personal safety. If the Democrats win, they will owe the antiwar crowd their first child. Negotiation will be our policy and a democratic US is a lousy negotiator. Clinton talked with North Korea and what happened - we sent them heavy oil and food so they could secretly spend money to develop missiles.
If I were Iran, North Korea, Syria, Russia, China, I would consider a win by the Democrats as the emasculation of the US. Just as Mocadishu encourages Bin Laudin, a Democrat win would encourage our enemies.
A Democrat US will talk and talk while our enemies plan for the next 9/11, but this time they wont just stir up the US, the object of their next attack will be so horrific as to destroy the US's standing in the world - so they will think and plan.
So remember kiddies, dive under your desks, place your head between your legs, and kiss your ass goodbye.
And also for the next two months the liberal MSM will be doing thier cheerleading for the democrats. That might have worked in 1986, but the liberal media doesn't have it's monopoly anymore and is slowly dying.
On a roll What roll?????????
Pray for Rick Santorum to be reelected. He is one of the best.
Santorum did a great job this morning on Meet The Press, and it was 2 against 1, Liberal Reussert and Casey against Santorum.
Many pundits are going to have major egg on their faces on the day after election day. Just remember, I said it here. The pubbies will gain one to three in the senate, and between three and six in the house. Expect the MSM to do what they always do, bad mouth the POTUS and the Pubbies, just as they did in 2000, 2002 and 2004. And, they will be proven wrong again. But, we need to fight the vermin known as the Democrat "Traitor/Treason" Party tooth and nail. If the Democrat scum and vermin lose in 2006, the party will begin to break up. The Pubbies have been such whimps, if they, the Democrat party, can't win in 2006, they are in deep trouble as a party. Let's all work to turn out our troops on election day and destroy that political party that brought us Bill Clinton, the enabler of 911, and murderer of American innocents.
"Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate."
The same rhetoric the media used in the last two elections,
they will be shocked, shocked when republicans make gains.
Because they don't know any better? Remember, almost 50% of the country routinely votes Democratic. Does that mean 50% of Americans hate America?
A democrat-controlled Congress would hand President Bush the massive illegal alien amnesty and explosion in third world immigration he wants so very badly.
Only a GOP House can keep this treason at bay until January 2009.
On a roll What roll?????????
Democrats riding a wave of momentum...........wipeout!
That may be so, but it is still vastly more powerful in reach and agenda-setting than the disparate channels of modern communication (like internet, talk radio, etc.). It can easily set the stage and the premise of a powerful narrative if it decides to coagulate around a story, just like Abu Ghraib. Once that happens (bandwagon effect), the alternative media can do very little about it, as the premise of the MSM becomes the narrative of the record.
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