Posted on 09/01/2006 7:44:40 AM PDT by okstate
Though the Kennedy campaign has been throwing everything they've got at the DFL candidate, county attorney Amy Klobuchar is maintaining her edge in the race for U.S. Senate, now besting Republican Mark Kennedy 47% to 40% (see crosstabs).
Independent candidate Robert Fitzgerald attracts 8% of the vote.
Klobuchar's advantage has narrowed since our earlier August poll, but her current seven-point lead remains significant. For most of 2006, there have been only two or three points separating the major-party candidates.
Based upon this poll, we are shifting the race from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power summary.
The Kennedy campaign has been asserting all year that Klobuchar is a clone of the incumbent, Senator Mark Dayton (DFL). When she announced her candidacy, she called Dayton one of her "heroes," a characterization seized on by Republicans. An April issue of Time magazine dubbing Dayton "The Blunderer" served as more fodder for the assault-by-association. But Klobuchar's standing in our polls has nonetheless improved.
Both major party candidates do well with their base. Klobuchar does better with unaffiliated voters and with moderates, leading Kennedy 60% to 26% in that group.
Klobuchar is viewed "very favorably" by 33% of Minnesota voters, a ten-point increase since January. Kennedy is viewed "very favorably" by just 24%, and is also saddled with a higher "very unfavorable" number.
A plurality (42%) of all voters see Klobuchar as a liberal, though many (37%) also see her as moderate. Fifty-one percent (51%) see Kennedy as conservative, 29% as moderate.
"I keep sayin' it and sayin' it---ain't I been sayin' it?" (Randy Quaid in "Independence Day"): the POLLS for some unexplained reason are ALL . . . ALL . . . watering down GOP totals. Trust me on this.
Everything except talent. Kennedy's campaign ads are the lamest I have ever seen. I'd rather watch Target or Old Navy commercials-- and that's saying something!
"See, I TOLD you this was closer"
Well I agree that it is closer than what the "Red Star"-Tribune was showing... but I think this result is pretty accurate. Klobuchar has been up all year and no polls have shown Kennedy leading. I think even Washington and Michigan are more competitive than Minnesota right now. (And certainly NJ and MD are)
"I wonder if Rasmussen is basing this on an Internet polling procedure?"
No, this is a standard telephone survey.
"Not more than a month ago the Minnesota-Star Tribune poll along with Rasmussen, Zogby et all had Klobuchar far ahead--sometimes 19%."
The Star-Trib had Klobuchar up 19. A Dem campaign poll released to the public had her up 18. And one month ago Rasmussen had her up 12. So Rasmussen is showing some tightening but I think we can safely dismiss the Star-Trib poll from the equation.
Unfortunately, Robert Fitzgerald will likely be the Ralph Nader for Kennedy in this race. He gets 8% or more in many polls, pretty much directly from Kennedy.
I can't see Kennedy winning this race now.
Reading the MSM this morning (For example, The Wall Street Journal and USA Today) and listening to the radio I noted that the MSM has kicked it into high gear with the "Republicans have already lost" theme. The Wall Street Journal featured a front page story on how the dems have closed the national security gap. USA Today seemed to suggest that the Republicans were losing key races. The local news focused on how Iraq was the issue in states like NJ.
Yet, the polls seem to be narrowing at a time when the public truly starts to pay attention to politics. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next two weeks.
The last polling from Minnesota in 2002 went like this:
Star-Tribune - Mondale +5
St. Paul Pioneer Press - Coleman +6
Final Result - Coleman +3
I can find no records of any polling company predicting a Mondale win of between 8 and 15 percent.
OK I will go to Wikpedia and find them. In the meantime you answered my question. The Red Star Tribune had Mondal at +5 the day before the Election. Coleman won by 3%. A 8% screwup by the Minny Media the day before the election due to bias. Wait until Foreign Affairs novice, Klobuchar, gets on Meet the Press.
If you read my post number 6 I specifically stated that the Star-Trib poll should be thrown out. It's always so far off in the Democratic direction that it's unusable.
I won't say the same for Rasmussen, however.
We agree to diagree which is fine. I just do not see what the big deal with Amy is?
Well he's a Republican.
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