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Laffey Takes Commanding Lead in Republican U. S. Senate Primary
RHode Island College ^ | Date Posted: August 31, 2006 | Rhode Island College

Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM

U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.

The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.

If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.

In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.

Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).

“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.

Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).

The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.

The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.

Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Rhode Island
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; byebyelinkie; chafee; laffee; laffey; rino; rinohunt; senate
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To: .cnI redruM; staytrue

"Either

a)Find which specific posts I made in support of ousting Cannon in Utah. Or,

b) Stop making false accusations that you lack the factual basis to accurately support."

All you conservatives look alike to staytrue.


321 posted on 09/01/2006 3:17:01 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: Republican Wildcat

Make your point.


322 posted on 09/01/2006 3:26:14 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: goldfinch

What makes you think Chafee would beat the Dem? Have you a poll?


323 posted on 09/01/2006 3:37:30 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: staytrue

Moonbats are on the left.


You sound like a DUer.


324 posted on 09/01/2006 3:42:35 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: staytrue

Will you support Laffey in the general? Doesn't sound like you will.


325 posted on 09/01/2006 3:44:35 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: GregH

Chafee is a radical liberal.


326 posted on 09/01/2006 3:48:32 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: slowhand520; staytrue
They are two different races.

They are? I thought staytrue was talking about the primary. At least, he/she made it seem that way.

327 posted on 09/01/2006 3:51:12 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: stands2reason
If you think Conservatives are idiots, you are welcome to leave.

Sorry (not really), but I'm not leaving.

328 posted on 09/01/2006 4:32:32 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: Torie

FYI. No surprise to me except that Laffey is gaining strength so early with the unaffiliated.


329 posted on 09/01/2006 4:34:47 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: staytrue

Well, attacking conservatives in general on a Conservative Forum?

Not a good idea.


330 posted on 09/01/2006 6:19:59 PM PDT by stands2reason (ANAGRAM for the day: Socialist twaddle == Tact is disallowed)
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To: .cnI redruM
This seat is going to the Democrats, pure and simple. I can't stand Chaffee either, as is the case with so many of you, but I am overwhelmingly convinced I will like his Democratic Party replacement much less.

Laffey doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the seat come November.
331 posted on 09/01/2006 6:47:20 PM PDT by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: stands2reason

The point is that the sentence is very strange and I don't know what to make of it...so in other words, what I said.


332 posted on 09/01/2006 8:41:28 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: twigs
Plus we won't have to constantly listen to the MSM reporting over & over how a certain "prominent Republican" is once again against some Bush policy. That drives me crazy.

Now if we could just get McCain & Specter to step down (or to at least just STFU), that would be so sweet.

333 posted on 09/01/2006 8:41:35 PM PDT by Left2Right ("Democracy isn't perfect, but other governments are so much worse")
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To: jwalsh07; AntiGuv; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; Kuksool; AuH2ORepublican
Polls here, polls there, polls, polls everywhere. Political Wire lists a bunch of polls, and the interesting thing, except in the Talent race, is that the Pubbies run better with registered voters than with likely voters, suggesting a certain "dispiritedness" among some GOP leaning voters.
334 posted on 09/01/2006 9:01:23 PM PDT by Torie
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To: staytrue
>> Maybe you would like to explain why conservative Blackwell is running 25 points behind "rino" Dewine? <<

Answer: Blackwell has the misfortune of running to succeed ultra-RINO Bob Taft, not only the LEAST popular Governor of Ohio but the LEAST popular Governor in the nation right now (and a disgrace to the Taft family name) Ohio voters are sick of "Republican rule" in the Governor's mansion after Taft, and sadly the Republican candidate running to "succeed" him is running against a mountain of "throw the rascals" out sentiment to remove the "Republicans" from the Governor's mansion.

Republican Jim Ryan faced a simular problem when he was running to succeed ultra RINO criminal scumbag George Ryan in Illinois.

Mike Dewine faces no such anchor around his neck -- he's not running to replace a fellow Republican Senator who's less popular than toxic waste. Rather, Mike Dewine is a likeable if spineless center-right incumbent who is scandal-free.

You're probably shoving the same crap that Alan Keyes campaign is "proof" that "conservatives can't win" in Gore states. Tell you what, let's have one of your brillant RINO candidates run under the SAME circumstances as Keyes. Pluck him out of his state, make him the 11th hour "replacement" candidate after the previous Republican was forced out due to scandal, and make sure his Dem opponent had two monthes of running opponent-free with the national media fawning over him endless with puff pieces and hyping the RAT as a "rising star" nonstop.

Wanna take the bet, wise guy? Maybe we should have California RINO Rosario Marin become the GOP candidate in CT next month. I'm sure she would "win", right?

335 posted on 09/01/2006 9:31:33 PM PDT by BillyBoy (ILLINOIS ELECTION "CHOICES:" Rod Bag-o-$hit or Judas Barf Too-Pinka)
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To: staytrue

I, for one conservative, don't want you to leave. On the other hand, I don't think you should call us idiots either. That's what the Rats do to conservatives--they tried to sell the notion that Reagan was an idiot, just as they're trying to sell the notion that President Bush is an idiot. Fortunately, conservatives know better.


336 posted on 09/01/2006 10:30:52 PM PDT by seanmerc
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To: Badray

The answers would be NO/ NO/ NO. Little Rhodies are their own breed.. just like Brown Eggs. They will NEVER vote R, but they will switch if they feel insecure. HUGE UNION STATE..you haven't a safe job unless you work for the GOV//STATE//UNION.
They are incredibly kind folks who try to do the best that they can. Grew up on the teat.


337 posted on 09/01/2006 10:31:15 PM PDT by acapesket (never had a vote count in all my years here)
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To: seanmerc
I don't think you should call us idiots either.

I think cheering when you win a primary or being a sore loser and sliming a primary winner you don't like is so idiotic, that yes I will call you an idiot if you do that.

Cheering is for winning in the general election.

You never heard the Schwarzenegger supporters cheering when McClintock lost, but you did hear the Tom supporters sliming Arnold.

Those are the people I have no respect for and yes they are idiots.

338 posted on 09/01/2006 10:42:26 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: acapesket

But they have been voting "R". Liberal "R", but still an "R".


339 posted on 09/01/2006 11:14:41 PM PDT by Badray (While defending the land called America, we must also be sure to preserve the Idea called America.)
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To: staytrue
There is an excellent book on this topic by Hugh Hewett: If It's Not Close....They Can't Cheat

Hewett is of the opinion that it doesn't matter whether a Republican is liberal (RINO) or not....the party with the most members seated is in control. Control means setting the agenda. Control means advancing favorable legislation and blocking unfavorable legislation to the overall objectives. Control of the committees! It doesn't matter a bit if the RINOs get elected or reelected as long as the 'Pubbies stay in control! Imagine the satisfaction of giving Chaffee the boot and then seeing control revert to the RATS and getting to see them take over all the committees like the Judiciary? Can we just imagine the BLIZZARD of gun control laws that would hit the floor? While we revel in the heady decade of control we forget forty years of the misery that we felt as the minority party. Let alone all the bad stuff that we were unable to protect the country from having to endure.

340 posted on 09/02/2006 8:45:21 AM PDT by ExSoldier (Democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.)
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