Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the states geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafees base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafees support has remained stagnant, while Laffeys has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffeys support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafees support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffeys strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the true partisan candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffeys efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off, said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
I can tell you, at least in the case of Daschle, that his career could've been stopped dead in 1986. The reason why Jim Abdnor and Larry Pressler went down can be answered in 2 words: Bill Janklow. Janklow sabotaged both of the men because he didn't want to share the spotlight with any other Republican in major office in SD. It's no wonder that Daschle appeared as a character witness at his manslaughter trial. And for those that say Janklow was a Conservative and that it's impossible to be a RINO and a Conservative at the same time, I say it is possible. Janklow is living proof of that.
I guess it is all over then.
It's called principle.
Is that right? Color me shocked and stunned - sounds like Hugh has done a complete about face the past two years.
Pick up "If Its Not Close, They Can't Cheat" (written right before the '04 election) and you'll see what I mean.
Glad to hear it though - very good news.
If this poll is accurate, and is realized, the seat goes from toss-up to safe Dem. Along with Allen's problems in Virginia, the chances of a Dem takeover of the Senate are up to near 50%, with the only offsetting factor, a recent poll showing Kean in NJ moving into a narrow lead.
Thanks SS - that was pointed out to me by someone else on the board as well. I never thought I would see the day when Hugh would turn on any GOP incumbent for any reason.
You have no idea what the hell you are talking about. Find any post in my history where I wanted the GOP to intervene in ANY primary. If you can't, then withdraw your false statement.
Frankly more than a few freepers are saying "stay out of the primaries" and also saying "why the hell did the national gop not intervene in florida and get Harris out and another credible candidate in.
I could care less about Florida - if Harris won the primary, she should be the candidate. Maybe, just maybe, the GOP establishment rallying to defeat her in any way possible caused the grassroots to rally around her. Maybe the action of the GOP caused a backlash which resulted in a poor candidate being nominated.
Maybe, just maybe, they should have stayed the hell out of it.
HYPOCRISY REIGNS EVEN FOR FR.
A shouted run-on sentence to close - you're quite clever.
If you were counting on Chafee beating Laffey and then Whitehouse for the Republicans to have 50 Senators, then you already thought that the Democrats would win the Senate. Chafee's chances of beating Laffey in the primary have always been below 50% (I think he was a fool not to run as an independent), and Chafee would also be the underdog against Whitehouse in the general (although, admittedly, not as much of an underdog as Laffey would be). And if Chafee did manage to win, he would almost certainly switch to the Democrats if it would give them control of the Senate, so if Chafee wins the GOP needs to have at least 50 other Senators to hold the Senate.
As for Allen, if he is still up by a few points in polls taken while he was being railed in the media for his "macaca" comment, I think he'll win by at least 10%.
And Kean taking the lead isn't the only recent bright spot for the GOP in Senate races; Talent appears to have taken the lead as well, and both Stabenow and Cantwell are looking very weak. And just today a poll came out showing Mfume beating Cardin by 4% in the MD Democrat primary; if Mfume gets the nod, Michael Steele will be a slight favorite in the general election (Steele would be a slight underdog against Cardin).
If Chafee was the 50th Republican, it *would* be a Democrat Senate, because he'd switch in a nanosecond. And even if Chafee was just bluffing when he said he'd switch and he actually stayed a RINO, it wouldn't help us much with the next Alito, since Chafee actually voted *against* Alito (the only "Republican" to do so). Chafee doesn't help us at all.
You know if this true, at least Laffey will give a great account of himself and his conservative philosophy. He will lose in RI , which is a huge Dem-left state but my guess is , he will make a splash nevertheless. And it may begin to change the internals of the RI GOP which is a country club party and needs badly to Reaganize.
how will laffey do in the general?
Chaffee keeps getting elected because they like his dad.
Maybe you would like to explain why conservative Blackwell is running 25 points behind "rino" Dewine ?
I say the conservative idiots have not made their case to the american people and look like whiney losers when they say "why oh why do the idiot american people keep electing rinos"
Yeah, but Hugh's pretty easy to figure out.
There are certain "rules" Northeartern Republicans are to abide by. Chafee has broken every one of them with the announcement that he wouldn't vote for Bush being the one that is least tempered by time. Had he simply refrained from a declaration of how he'd vote? He wouldn't have recieved near the amount of heat from Hewitt.
Hugh's a party guy first.
Conservatism is his luxury.
When the two clash, he chooses the establishment. Miers...Illegal immigration..etc... I think he did break over Dubai? But he was trying to re-establish the conservative creds he trashed by shilling for Miers.
Anyway, while Chafee has offended conservatives he's also offended the establishment devottees. And that can be fatal to a political career to do both.
I do read Hewitt's site for the interviews, and he has a nice little litany of sentences he advertises the GOP adopt as a model..ones I actually agree with. But then I read a number of sites. Redstate, Instapundit, used to read Powerline but they are starting to grate on my nerves, Kaus, Polipundit, National Review, RCP's, Spectator's blog and CFG's blog, just to name a few. Some I identify with, others I find the analysis to be more correct as events play out then not, NRO as an example is a good line into the chatter in the Beltway. Helps understand our politicians mindset. My favorite? RightWingNews.
In case you have not noticed, the right wing moonbats on FR do not like Allen or Martinez either. Actually, I don't think they like anyone except tancredo.
RI and Virginia in tandem causes the change. I think Virginia is basically a tossup, and that Allen might lose. That pic with Allen with the white supremicists, is going to damage him in the DC burbs area, and elsewhere, I suspect. That combined with the macaca remark, may well cause some to connect the dots as they think appropriate. I don't see Maryland going GOP, unless the Dem candidate performs poorly after the primary in presenting himself. I just don't. So assuming NJ stays Dem, and I think Kean has a real chance, maybe a 35%-40% chance, we have Penn and RI likely lost, and Montana not there yet, but close to it, with Missouri skin tight (I agree that the Dem has flaws), Virginia a real problem, and Tenn somewhat in play - it remains to be seen, I see the Dems as up to about 45% odds in getting five seats. You are right, that getting six seats, that the odds are lower. That might be around 33%. In any event, the over under is around just over 4 seats IMO.
Tell the idiots at NSRC to save their frickin'
money for a real Republican in need, like Santorum, Talent ... and Minnesota race.
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