Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
People are following the "If x were the GOP nominee and y were the Dem nominee, whom would you vote for?" polls.
I don't know that I buy those polls right now. Maybe, maybe not.
I am one who violently opposes the "purge RINOs" or the pure ideology nonsense. But Chafee is different.
Here are the numbers: Chafee is a first-term Senator. His lifetime ACU rating has been 37 but this year it's 12.
12.
He's become a gadfly and is getting worse. He's not a "maverick" or "independent". In the Senate, we know there are individuals with strange agendas and we just hope they agree with us most of the time.
But here are the numbers:
2005: Chafee is 12. Here are the Dems that are higher than him: Kohl(13), Feingold(13), Byrd(20), Johnson-SD(13), Dorgan (17), Conrad(20), Clinton(12), Bingaman(13), Nelson-NE(60), Baucus(24), Dayton(16), Stabenow(12), Levin(17), Landrieu(44), Bayh(20), Nelson-FL(20), Salazar(32), Pryor(24), Lincoln(16).
Bottom line, if he were in the Democratic party, he would be one of their more liberal members.
The next lowest Republicans are Snowe(32) and Collins(32). DeWine(56) is next. And at least Snowe and Collins disagree and leave it at that. And I believe it's over principle in their cases. Missing Linc votes with the Dems out of spite or what he believes is political advantage.
There's no contest. Chafee is no RINO. He casts one vote for Republicans (organization), takes his chairmanship and then actively works against Republicans. Moreover, he enjoys it and gets mileage from it. I guess I have one litmus test. If you can't manage to vote for the nominee of your party for president, an incumbent no less, having you in the party is a drain because you're going to hold the party hostage when there's something you want.
Hmm...
Doubtful Chafee would be able to pull it out anyway. I'd rather money not get wasted there. And Chafee isn't reliable as far as staying in the fold anyhow.
No, Laffey supports Bush on most issues. Laffey is trying to
sell him self as a populist change agent by associating Chafee with the "status quo" in Washington.
He also said that our "Social Programs" are what makes America
great.
There are some purists in FR, but in the case of Chaffee, there is NO advantage to keeping him. He never votes with the party, even on important votes. He is as dumb as a rock. He is completely unqualified to tie his own shoes.
There are some RINOs we need to keep, because we couldn't do better, but he isn't one of them.
What are the odds of Laffey losing in the general though? 80 percent, 90?
If we lose the Senate because of Chafee, then we would see the value of keeping a NE RINO or two.
Before being appointed senator, Chafee was a mayor too, of Warwick RI. Seriously what "responsibilities" does a Senator actually have these days, besides hiring a bloated staff to do his work for him?
There is a better chance of 20 asteroids hitting a second from now than a REPUBLICAN winning in Rhode Island except his name is Chafee.
You may get your wish.
Well, this is exactly what you are going to get if y'all keep up your jihad.
"Laffey beats Chaffee, loses to donkey"
- John
The problem with your argument is that we haven't gotten incremental progress under the Republicans. They have pushed us steadily leftward. The only time the leftward progression of government was halted was during the times when there was a split government.
That is just so historically inaccurate that I am going to ping nopardons to the thread so she can educate you since I'm a Democrat and you wouldn't believe me.
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