Posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:42 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the Red State homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).
Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)Read on...
The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allens numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadnt done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.
The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months and probably has an audience thats even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some true-believer support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Lets see if that holds up.
Whos the new conservative it candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allens implosion has given Newts people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.
Bottom line: It looks like Newts decision to stay out the race until November of 07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. Hes clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesnt run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.
Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. Theres a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giulianis 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.
McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney handy reference should either of the two offline frontrunners falter.
Men and boys by AcademicElephant Looks like the men are being seperated from the boys--but I'm still having trouble getting excited about any of them.
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
I think the running mate will depend on how close the election is going to be and who the 'Rat nominee is. If the 'Rat nominee is someone like John Edwards, it makes sense to have Guiliani because he might be able to deliver NY and possibly NJ. If Hitlery is the 'Rat nominee, the running mate will almost certainly be Condi Rice.
I will not be surprised if we see more of a return to the VP spot going to the person who can deliver in the election and then that person being "banished to obscurity" after the election. It is only in fairly recent times that vice presidents really had any duties aside from the Senate and being sent to funerals or other functions that the president didn't want to attend.
Um, isn't it a mark of a leader to occasionally offend someone? Put it another way: isn't it a mark of a wimp to never offend anyone?
I prefer it reversed and hope it is...I know, I know, flame away.
Giuliani's core beliefs are to the left of Hillary Clinton.
Anybody who thinks Allen "never offended anyone" has never been to Virginia.
The RATS have always hated him.
ya, everyone running is a career politician, can't say i really like any of them. Pence is not too bad, wonder if he'll run...
or the SC gov, whatshisname... think hes said hes not running.
Why is it when someone doesn't agree with every issue they start throwing out all the venom? Just one time I'd like to see their rant followed by an "IMO."
As they say, denial isn't just a river in Egypt. :)
BOSTON -- Gubernatorial candidates Shannon O'Brien and Mitt Romney sparred yesterday over who was the strongest abortion rights supporter by touting endorsements from abortion rights groups and challenging each other's records on the issue. http://www.southcoasttoday.com/daily/10-02/10-03-02/a03sr021.htm
Either he's a pro-abortion enthusiast or a massive untrustworthy flip-flopper, or both.
Mitt Romney -- you can't trust anything he says.
''I started getting a lot of calls saying, 'This guy is no good, he's just playing politics, he's trying to get both sides,' " Scheidler said in a telephone interview. link
''I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose. This choice is a deeply personal one," Romney wrote in answer to a NARAL questionnaire during the campaign. ''Women should be free to choose based on their own beliefs, not mine and not the government's." link
Redstate has never been very friendly to allen, that site is full of romney/rudy supporters and most of them routinely dismiss allen.
Second, this poll is slightly bs. They didn't take a first place ranking last time and allen did have the highest net favorability. The polls where they are talking about allen taking the lead in the blogosphere were the patrick ruffini straw polls, and that's completely different from this. In those allen did lead, and until we have a questionare saying who is your 'pick', i wouldn't care much for anything else.
I suspect allen has a better favorable rating, but a lot of rudy/romney supporters mark him as 'negative' just to knock him down. I marked allen romney rudy and gingrich as favorable, but doesn't mean they are my first pick.
I wish Bill Owens would run
http://www.colorado.gov/governor/biography.html
Where can all this "everything" be read? Someone must have forgotten to point it out to ALL the MSM [including Fox News] too.
The state of Austria.
There are some 'core' things that separate Republicans from Democrats and having a prolife candidate at the top of the ticket is one this voter would very much hate to see go away.
Thank you, Johnny. I am so sick of reading what a swell conservative Mitt is. He is governor of the farthest left state in the union. He ran to the left of Ted Kennedy in 1994 and is a champion flip flopper. He is the epitome of the word "politician."
His old man was no better. The press annointed George Romney as the Rino elect in 1967, but the old guy said he had been "brainwashed" on the Vietnam War.
The only good thing going on is that while McCain sleeps in his snake hole, we get to see the Rudyites and Romneyites fighting for the position of chief Rino and sellout.
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