Posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:42 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the Red State homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).
Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)Read on...
The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allens numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadnt done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.
The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months and probably has an audience thats even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some true-believer support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Lets see if that holds up.
Whos the new conservative it candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allens implosion has given Newts people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.
Bottom line: It looks like Newts decision to stay out the race until November of 07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. Hes clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesnt run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.
Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. Theres a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giulianis 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.
McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney handy reference should either of the two offline frontrunners falter.
Men and boys by AcademicElephant Looks like the men are being seperated from the boys--but I'm still having trouble getting excited about any of them.
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
Arnold is constitutionally ineligible.
What state was Arnold born in?
Lower third
I know, the Rudy haters will come forth....no Rudy hater here!
I noticed that the MSN media darling McPain is just above Hagel. He is going nowhere. Hehehehe.
Is anybody even going to remember this let alone care when the primaries come around?
From all of the negative press he's been getting the past few weeks, it seems pretty clear to me that the 'Rats (and a lot of the Republicans) are trying everything they can to derail Allen because they see him as the real frontrunner in 2008 regardless of what any polls show.
I never thought I'd see the day when Gingrich had a real shot of winning the nomination. But it looks like he might.
Too bad Buchanan burned his bridges a few years back.
Well, Allen did make a "not ready for prime time" impression.
I'd sure vote for him.
Is this hyperbole? He went from 11.5% to 11.3%.
Romney is RINO scum?
LOL! I just noticed where Frist is. Pathetic.
Allen totally lost me, however, when he went completely nuts over the totalitarian tainted concept of "Heritage Corridors," or anything even remotely like that that inhibits, or damages individual property rights, including the right to control, as well as own property in this great land!!!
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