Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[Caipirabob]

May I suggest you look for their crank radios and flashlights? While batteries are great, our children had a propensity to burn through them. This year we are providing them with crank lights and radios. No worries that they'll run out of the power. The past two years we've had some 15 days of power outages combined. We're getting the routine nailed down.

I should also add that you might look into "personal fans" that you can hang around your neck. We've used them and they've made a difference in August heat. I don't have a photo, but I do know that Walmart carries them.

Good luck!

[mutley]

I sure hope you are right, but Cuba is not really known as a destroyer of storms. Many have spent considerable time over Cuba, only to quickly resume intensity over the hot water of the gulf. I will hope that Ernesto will somehow travel the entire length of Cuba, from east to west. That might do it.

[brytlea]

May I suggest you look for their crank radios and flashlights?

Got those last year, and also the fans. We were without power for 12 days after Wilma. This will be our 3rd hurricane season in S. FL. I miss Texas.... ;) susie

[dirtboy]

Cuba is not really known as a destroyer of storms.

There are moutains in far SE Cuba that go up to 6,500 feet. That probably wouldn't destroy Ernesto, but would definitely put a damper on him. And if it tracks just a bit further north and east now, that would hopefully keep it out of the Gulf.

The waters between Jamaica and Cuba have the highest hurricane heat potential in the Caribbean. Let's hope it doesn't track through there.

[LeGrande]

I think you can make longer term predictions of large scale events than small and specific events. For example I can confidentally predict it will get colder by december, but I have no idea whether this New York will be hotter or colder next Wednesday than it is today.

So you can confidently predict whether New York will be hotter or colder than "normal" this December? Want to place a little wager?

[Sam Cree]

"Interesting how the lunatic left thinks it knows what the climate of the earth will be decades from now, but in fact weather experts don't know where a hurricane will go in the next 4-5 days."

They will tell you that long term climatic trends are easier to forecast than short term weather. 'Course, they don't mention that it's not possible to demonstrate such a thing.

[No Blue States]

Wow, what a huge shift east from yesterday.
I didnt expect that.

Good luck to those Floridians now in the predicted path.

[Sam Cree]

"I'm hopeful the track will keep shifting eastward..."

Hey, stop wishing that thing on to us...I'm thinking I may be getting my plywood out tomorrow if it trends east even a little more.

[AFPhys]

I think you can make longer term predictions of large scale events than small and specific events. For example I can confidentally predict it will get colder by december, but I have no idea whether this New York will be hotter or colder next Wednesday than it is today.

Let me keep this question(s) simple:

Can you confidently predict it will be warmer or colder THIS December than it was last December? How about the December after that? Do you depend on Old Farmer's Almanac to decide when to schedule your family reunions?

[tiredoflaundry]

Folks should also prepare for the chance of tornados. We will be going through our "drill" with the family today.

[dirtboy]

Hey, stop wishing that thing on to us...

I'm wishing it even further east, into the Bahamas.

[bobdsmith]

So you can confidently predict whether New York will be hotter or colder than "normal" this December? Want to place a little wager?

I can confidentally predict that the average temperature of New York this December will be colder than the temperature of New York today. Yet I cannot make such a confident prediction of whether it will be hotter or colder in New York in 3 days time.

[bobdsmith]

Can you confidently predict it will be warmer or colder THIS December than it was last December?

No but I can confidentally predict it will be colder this december than it is today. But shorter term forcasts of a few days I am not so confident at.

[nwctwx]

Numbers are kts:



http://www.pcwp.com

[blam]

"I live in Mobile, AL, and, if I'm understanding the latest trends in the projections, this just got personal."

Welcome to Mobile Ike ('I Like Ike'), I live down in the Fowl River area on the way to Dauphin Island. I'm always on the hurricane threads too... although it looks like this one will miss us.

The last two years I've felt like a 'pin' at the end of a bowling alley around here...sometimes a strike and sometimes a spare, lol.

[silentknight]

Latest forecast shows a direct hit on Tampa, Florida

LARGE errors are possible this far out.

See graphics here
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=ST&f=15&t=104351&st=980

Latest weather updates on this system can also be there. A lot of freepers used that site last year to get information.

Graphics there shows the potential impact on Tampa IF Ernesto can survive Cuba and stays on the forecast path.

The storm was supposed to hit Louisiana according to yesterdays forecast SO you can see the big changes. More changes are likely.

[blam]

"My 14 yo grandson informed me yesterday that I was the only one one the planet that still used dial=up."

I do too...I'm way out in the boonies and don't have a choice.

[dirtboy]

That would be pure worst case for Tampa - perfect angle to pile surge up in the bay.

Nwctwx, check out the latest visible - does it seem the center has shifted a bit to the north again, almost to the coast of Hait?

Eastern Caribbean Visible

[silentknight]

The GOOD news this morning is that Ernesto is likely to remain over Cuba for a longer period of time. Let's all hope this trend continues. Still a LONG way to go before we have impact on the United States. Any forecast beyond day 2 will likely change and could change dramatically. Something to keep in mind when you see your city in the bullseye (Tampa for example).

[LeGrande]

No but I can confidentally predict it will be colder this december than it is today. But shorter term forcasts of a few days I am not so confident at.

Then can you predict whether or not it will be colder or hotter than today next year? Is that a sufficiently long forecast for you?