Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[pleikumud]

Interesting how the lunatic left thinks it knows what the climate of the earth will be decades from now, but in fact weather experts don't know where a hurricane will go in the next 4-5 days.

[abb]

Fair slug of dry air in front of it, too.

[Mrs. P]

Tell your grandson that he's wrong!! We can't get DSL yet where we live. What is funny is my parents live in a small remote town in the UP of Michigan, DSL is available to them. Also, my brother has it and he lives in a small northern town. We are near a big city and can't get it (yet). So we are still on dial-up and loving it. NOT!

[randita]

Oh, please -- not Ivan. Ivan absolutely shut down eastern PA with the Delaware River hitting 100 year flood height--about 300% of normal September river flow. Even though that was 2 years ago, there are still roads and bridges not repaired yet.

[bobdsmith]

I think you can make longer term predictions of large scale events than small and specific events. For example I can confidentally predict it will get colder by december, but I have no idea whether this New York will be hotter or colder next Wednesday than it is today.

[numberonepal]

Why to go Ernesto, I knew you could do it. Now slap Castro around a bit and go to East Texas.

[twin2]

Well yesterday I thought we were free and clear and today, well, we're in the cone.

I am off to church and then Publix to stock up on water and ice. My bad, I've drank my entire hurricane supply of water over the summer.

I am worried because the roof is still not repaired since Wilma last year. The rolladin shutters are strong but that wind could get into the weak points of the roof and lift it off.

I will report the chaos (or lack of) when I return. I am in Miami by the way.

[metmom]

There go gas and oil prices. yippee

[dirtboy]

There go gas and oil prices. yippee

Actually, the current forecast track keeps the storm away from Gulf production and refining areas.

[metmom]

I hope so but I wonder just how much difference that would make, you know, have to raise prices *just in case*.

Actually , prices are higher now than they were last year about this time. It was $2.61 a gallon just before Katrina hit and it's already 30 cents a gallon over that. I know that it's not because of the weather but our budget doesn't care what the cause is.

[brothers4thID]

Prayers for your daughter onyx.

[varina davis]

mark

[austen]

Interesting how the lunatic left thinks it knows what the climate of the earth will be decades from now, but in fact weather experts don't know where a hurricane will go in the next 4-5 days.

An excellent point. The "forecast" of global warming is based on fearmongering, cherry-picked data and willful conjecture. Humility is in order when attempting to track the future movements of Mother Nature.

[brothers4thID]

Praying it stalls on Cuba and dies out. Keep safe NautiNurse

[Caipirabob]

Ernesto is looking more and more the non-issue for NOLA and more of a "Florida Affair". You know how it is, have to keep up with the Jones and all that. ; )

[mutley]

This morning, it looks like Ernesto has been interacting with yet another Upper Level Low to the northeast, and has dragged him more north, and disrupted his structure,in the last few hours. That interaction seems to have ended now, and should start to again organize a bit, and resume a more westerly track. Or...I could be completely wrong.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Take care of your fuel needs. Gas for car, generator, chain saw, etc.

FFR
Former Fairhope Resident

[brytlea]

We are off to Costco this afternoon for a few more hurricane supplies...
susie

[dirtboy]

I'm hoping that trough will pull him just a tad further north. That would put Ernesto square into the mountains of SE Cuba. And would probably keep him out of the Gulf.

[brytlea]

Yup, I still see alot of Wilma Blue tarps around here.
susie